First, Pakistan made a claim that the Indian Air Force (IAF) planes had violated the Line of Control (LoC) and these have been beaten back. In the process of hasty retreat, they offloaded their payload on Balakot (i.e. bombed Balakot), close to the LoC.
Then follows the Indian claim that the terroist camps across the LoC have been wiped out by the IAF in a surprise strike. More than 300 have been killed. There's an an old saying, of Greek origin: In war, truth is the first casualty. On the Indian side, as expected, the media is trumpeting the version dished out by the Indian state. The Pakistani media must also be exactly a mirror image. Evidently, the coming days, on the Indian side in particular, would be filled with the noise of war drumbeats, drowing out all other issues, otherwise expected to be raised in the campaign for a national poll. It's precisely in this context, two comments made by this observer, post-Pulwama, gain special relevance. AA. <<Taking a cue from the parliamentary poll following the Kargil war, resulting from a massive intelligence failure on the Indian side, Modi will do his utmost to keep stoking hatred and thereby, also, deflect public attention from the huge failure of his Kashmir policy, as amply reflected in sharply rising number of casualties, on all sides, over the last four years or so. (Ref.: 'As Car Bomb Kills 44 CRPF Troopers, 94% Rise In Death Toll Of Security Forces in J&K In 4 Years' at < https://www.indiaspend.com/as-car-bomb-kills-44-crpf-troopers-94-rise-in-death-toll-of-security-forces-in-jk-in-4-years/> and < http://pib.nic.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1562722&fbclid=IwAR1wV-DgCJ5BTJlwPFb7dVVFvxQILk29qHOlqmY2szNDG0RtEpLQ2Dq5tl0#.XGayFkXNo48.facebook >.) While "coercive dplomacy", or whatever, is sure to fail to bring in any positive outcome for India - if past experience is any indicator (ref.: 'Pulwama terror attack: Punishing Pakistan — the options India has' at sl. no. I. below), it may, nevertheless, very well prove to be an effective vote-catcher. Who bothers about the consequences for India and Kashmir. (Ref.: 'Pulwama Aftermath: What’s Best for Modi May Not Be What’s Best for India' at sl. no. II. below.) ***There may also, again, be announcement of another round of dramatic "surgical strikes" in the midst of the poll.*** [Emphasis added now.] The declaration that the Army would "act" at a time of its own choosing keeps that possibility very much open, given the huge risks inherent in any serious military action. It's against this specific context, one has to ponder over the following. I. The plain fact is that both the concerned countries are armed with nuclear weapons along with all the three delivery platforms, necessary to ensure the capacity to strike back after being hit by the "first strike". A "war", thus, could too soon spin out of control and turn into a nuclear one wiping out, at least, much of the region, if not the humanity as a whole (ref.: 'India-Pakistan nuclear war could 'end human civilisation'' at < https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/10507342/India-Pakistan-nuclear-war-could-end-human-civilisation.html >). Even a talk of "war" is too risky and utterly irresponsible. II. A suicide bomber is a highly motivated one, unlike a professional paid soldier, regardless of the (usual) big difference in skill levels. That cause/trigger of motivation needs be assessed. In the present case, for the young local boy - the suicide bomber, reportedly, the immediate trigger for turning a militant was having been bashed up and humiliated by the Indian troops (ref.: < https://in.reuters.com/article/india-kashmir-bomber/kashmir-suicide-bomber-radicalised-after-beating-by-troops-parents-say-idINKCN1Q41M2 >). Also relevant: 'First time since 2000, more local recruits killed than foreign militants: J&K cops' at < https://indianexpress.com/article/india/pulwama-attack-crpf-first-time-more-local-recruits-killed-than-foreign-militants-jk-cops-5586695/?fbclid=IwAR2QZ6HHsuOJWILn2N3Dc2fdARympBDBYPHwsQRAVk3DGgDWSPxA0ztRyH4> and 'Army Fired to Kill, Used Civilians as Human Shields: Witnesses Recount Kashmir’s Bloody Weekend: Seven civilians, including minor boys, were killed in clashes that followed the encounter of three militants in south Kashmir’s Kharpora.' at < https://www.news18.com/news/india/army-fired-to-kill-used-civilians-as-human-shields-witnesses-recount-kashmirs-bloody-weekend-1976567.html >. III. The leaders of the Indian state must shed its persistent stupid refusal to "engage". *It's a well tried and tested failed method.* ***There has got to be persistent efforts to engage in dialogue with all the stakeholders. To begin with, it won't be easy, given the past history. Even then, this is the only way ahead. (Perhaps, it's about time to involve a credible third party, e.g. the UNSC Secretary General (or a neutral country like Norway), given the persistent failiure of the two concerned countries to sort out the issues all by themselves.)*** It doesn't mean letting one's guard down. It involves calibrated scaling down of "conflicts". IV. None of these can, however, be expected from a regime whose very survival depends on its ability to constantly stir up hatred against the real and constructed adversarial "others". V. Hence ...>> (Ref.: 'In the Wake of Pulwama: India's Options: Two Comments', dtd. Feb. 18 2018, at < https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/greenyouth/In$20the$20Wake$20of$20Pulwama$3A$20India$27s$20options$20two$20comments%7Csort:date/greenyouth/Hi2eWHkAC0g/G8CUS_YKBQAJ >.) BB. <<The easiest outlet for the insane, yet impotent, rage of the (Hindu) Indian masses, or at least significant sections thereof, at the gross humiliation suffered, is to vote for the most strident, never ever bother about the actual effectiveness, of the anti-Pak/anti-Muslim party, in a rush. That's the only revenge one can take, which one must. Hell with sane reasons. But, then, it's not only India. In any, whatever, country war or war-like situations work to the benefits of the national jingoists. More so, if they're in power. As an illustration, Stalin consolidated his power farther, in the course of the WWII, regardless of the immense disaster that his grossly cynical alliance with Hitler would bring in for the Soviet masses. In order to reap the advantage in the midst of a desperate situation caused by a totally unanticipated betrayal he'd have to change the 'Internationale' (ref.: < https://www.marxists.org/archive/grant/1944/01/scraps.htm>) as the national anthem, which had been adopted in the wake of the November Revolution, as a prominent mark of the new born state's commitment to the idea of world revolution, and replace it with a truly "national" one. Also noteworthy is the rehabilitatations the Tsarist era despots and bloodhounds as national icons (ref.: < https://scholarship.richmond.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1063&context=bookshelf >). That helped to galvanise the "nation" behind him and make the supreme sacrifice. Conversely, even Hitler was, as it appears, immensely popular with the German masses, till the very end. The situation needs very imaginative handling. Even that may fall far short. <<The terrorist attack at Pulwama, killing 40 Indian soldiers, provides Narendra Modi a huge but risky chance to portray himself as the toughest politician in India. Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s victory in the 1999 Kargil war helped him win the next general election. Can Modi use Pulwama to do the same? He must avoid military action, which could backfire badly. Far wiser would be new forms of political theatre, similar to his “surgical strikes” in 2016, in retaliation for the attack on our armed forces at Uri. That satisfied the public demand for action without risking dangerous escalation into all-out war.>>>> (Excerpted from: < https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/Swaminomics/stick-to-political-theatre-it-is-safer-than-risking-war-with-pak/?fbclid=IwAR1OtsPDLxDUgiJaLIfocXDLCJDJCH_9FAFJ4FS-hcO4OWpxamhW6kUKqvo >.) (Ref.: 'A Godsend Opportunity for Modi! 'Stick to political theatre, it is safer than risking war with Pak'', dtd. Feb. 24, at < https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/greenyouth/M0zhNzT4hXE>.) Reproduced below are three representative samples of Pakistani, Indian and a Third Party version. I/III. <<Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor Verified account @OfficialDGISPR Follow Follow @OfficialDGISPR More Indian aircrafts intruded from Muzafarabad sector. Facing timely and effective response from Pakistan Air Force released payload in haste while escaping which fell near Balakot. No casualties or damage. 5:36 PM - 25 Feb 2019>> (That's the essence of the Pakistani version, at < https://twitter.com/OfficialDGISPR/status/1100207947022565377>.) II/III. <<AF strikes in Pakistan underscores resolve and will power of new India. India will never tolerate terrorism BJP chief Amit Shah [13:49 (IST), FEB 26] ... Surgical strike 2.0: Four reasons why this is a totally different ballgame India’s foreign secretary has confirmed India struck the biggest training camp of Jaish e Mohammed (JeM) in Balakot in the early hours on Tuesday. This is unlike the previous strikes because it is for the first time in recent times that India has struck deep inside Pakistan territory.>> [13:29 (IST), FEB 26] (Ref.: < https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/live-updates-india-carries-out-air-strikes-on-terror-camps-in-pakistan/liveblog/68161990.cms >.) III. <<Indian warplanes conducted airstrikes in the Pakistan-controlled side of Kashmir on Tuesday, Pakistani officials said, in an escalation of tensions between the nuclear-armed nations after a suicide bombing against Indian troops in the disputed region this month. If confirmed, it would be the first time that Indian aircraft had crossed the Kashmir Line of Control to strike in years. But it was unclear what, if anything, the attack jets hit on the Pakistani side, raising the possibility that India was making a calculated bet to assuage public anger but minimize the risk of a major Pakistani military response. A spokesman for Pakistan’s armed forces, Maj. Gen. Asif Ghafoor, on Tuesday posted on Twitter four images of a forested area pockmarked with small craters and debris, which he said was the site of Indian airstrikes.>> (This is a Third Party version, 'Indian Jets Strike on Pakistani Side of Kashmir Line', at < https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/25/world/asia/india-pakistan-kashmir-jets.html >.) Apart from other implications, one can only hope that the things do not spin out of control and end up in a nuclear holocaust. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to greenyouth+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. 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