harakahdaily.com
Analysis: Two years later, the Anwar factor remains strong
by Simon Martin
KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 17 (AFP) - Two years after his dramatic arrest by scores
of armed and hooded riot police, the future has never looked bleaker for
Malaysia's ex-deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim.
A team of lawyers, acting unpaid for the man once seen as premier in
waiting, has lost every round of an exhaustive court battle to prove his
innocence.
In April 1999 Anwar was jailed for six years for abuse of power and last
month was imprisoned for nine years for sodomy.
The sentences will run consecutively, meaning he will be in jail until 2014
unless granted the customary one-third remission.
The appeal court in April rejected Anwar's bid to overturn his conviction
for abuse of power.
Anwar, 53, is now appealing to the federal court, the highest court, and is
also appealing the sodomy conviction and sentence.
"He has no co!
nfidence in the appeal process," said one of his lawyers,
Sankara Nair.
"As far as he is concerned it's a foregone conclusion.
"He is preparing for the fact that he may have to serve his full term."
Veteran Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who says Anwar was plotting to
topple him but insists that the legal process was independent, seems on the
surface to have weathered the storm.
Tens of thousands of Anwar's supporters attended an anti-government rally on
September 20, 1998, the day Anwar was arrested. When he was sentenced on
August 8 this year, just 500 people rallied outside the court house and
subsequent protests have fizzled out.
"The government has made it clear that it will come down hard on
demonstrators," said one political analyst close to Mahathir's ruling United
Malays National Organisation (UMNO).
"Malaysians are not going to jeopardise their interests by taking to the
streets to champion Anwar!
's cause.
"There is very little one can do. But there are dangers if the people are
not given the opportunity to express their feelings," said the analyst,
speaking on condition of anonymity.
"The government will not be able to gauge public support for it. The people
hide their true feelings and then express their feelings through the ballot
box. Then the government gets a rude shock."
This is exactly what happened in last November's election when UMNO lost 22
seats - largely because of the "Anwar factor," according to analysts.
Malays can run amok
Nationwide opinion polls are not conducted in Malaysia and the next
electoral test need not come till 2004. But hundreds of thousands of new
young electors, a group seen as especially likely to be attracted to Anwar's
Reformasi (reform) campaign, will have qualified to vote by then.
"On the surface Mahathir's position in the party suffered no dent with the
latest v!
erdict on Anwar," the analyst said.
"But we do not know what the situation is on the ground. Malaysians, in
particular Malays, hide their feelings. Malays, as you know, suppress their
feelings and then finally ran amok.
"I do not think any political observer can afford to dismiss the Anwar
factor."
Judging from November's polls, the analyst said, Anwar's conviction dealt a
severe blow to the ruling National Front and in particular to its largest
party UMNO.
A diplomat believes Singapore's Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew summed it up
best when he described the Anwar affair as an "unmitigated disaster" for
Mahathir.
Lee highlighted what he called a series of blunders in the handling of the
case but made it clear his comments were intended to be sympathetic to
Mahathir, 74.
"Mahathir is toughing it out," the diplomat said. "The government has zero
tolerance towards protesters and I think it is hoping that Malay!
s have a
short memory span."
The diplomat said the affair had done "a lot of damage" to UMNO, starting
with last November's elections. He noted that 70 percent of the population
is aged under 35 and more and more young voters are coming on the rolls each
election.
"The government must do something to win them back."
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