Saya sependapat dengan Pak Nyoto,
Alasan mereka bukan masalah menganggap tidak menganggap tetapi apakah
kesimpulannya medukung sesuai hipotesa yang "mereka" buat.

Saya pribadi berpendapat, kalau dalam konteks ilmiah memang wajar saja ada
perbedaan pemikiran, sayangnya "based technical" yang dibuat oleh IAGI
barangkali tidak kuat sehingga mudah "dipatahkan". Kalau saja ada data-data
pengukuran serta dimunculkan data-data riil serta analisis ilmiahnya,
mungkin saja bisa 50-50. Tetapi saya lihat saat ini paling tidak chance
factor-nya menjadi 90 : 10 untuk Unnatural : Natural, atau bahkan bisa saja
95 : 5.

Tentunya kita jangan terpesona dengan kasus penyebabnya saja. Penanganan
permukaan justru akan lebih membumi ketimbang "mengukir langit".

Ide pak ADB untuk mengeluarkan Lapindo dari BPLS (Timnas) mungkin bisa
memperbaiki "citra" tim ini dalam menangani problem permukan. Setiap langkah
memang selalu melibatkan Lapindo, tetapi karena sudah adanya "dosa asal" yg
dibawa Lapindo menyebabkan sulitnya pergerakan penanganan yang berbau
politis. Bau politis ini jauh lebih bahaya ketimbang bau H2S, kaan ?

Apa iya mereka lebih hebat dari kita ya ... mereka hanya dengan "60 menit"
bisa menguliti habis seminar yang dibuat berhari-hari  ?

- :( "Whallah Pakdhe hanya bisa mumble saja dan ngedumel saja ... tetapi
tidak bisa bicara !. Speak up Pakdhe !!!"

RDP

On 6/18/07, nyoto - ke-el <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:

Bukannya kita belum dianggep .... tetapi mungkin lebih berarti "mereka"
tidak sependapat dengan kesimpulan resmi IAGI kita , sehingga sama sekali
mereka "mengabaikannya", saya yakin kalau mereka sependapat , pasti mereka
akan "nganggep" IAGI kita ....


wass,

nyoto





On 6/18/07, oki musakti <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Sedikit menyimpang,
> Tadi malam musibah Lusi ditayangkan di acara 60 Minutes nya channel 9
> Australia.
> Seperti biasa fokus bahasannya lebih pada sisi human interest terutama
> masalah lebih  dari 40 ribu pengungsi yang sampai sekarang belum terurus
> dengan baik serta adanya Australian connection dalam bentuk participating
> interest Santos di sini.
>
> Dari sisi sudut pandang, acara ini jelas-jelas mengopinikan bahwa Lusi
> adalah kesalahan drilling dari Lapindo.
> Salah satunya disebutkan: 'The world's top experts agree this was the
> straight out human error — most likely a failure to shore up the walls of
> the bore hole with a protective casing. '.......mungkin ini maksudnya adalah
> 'top expert' yang gak hadir dalam seminar Lusi di BPPT....
>
> Buat saya ada satu hal yang sangat mengganggu: Narasumber utama dalam
> acara ini adalah Dr Mark Tingay dari Adelaide Uni. Sependek pengetahuan
> saya, belum pernah dengar Pak Tingay ini melakukan penelitian di Sidoardjo.
> Kalau lihat lontaran2 beliau, itu keliahatannya banyak yang langsung diambil
> dari berbagai diskusi diberbagai milisout dari nya Pak Dhe Vicki.
>
> Samasekali gak ada pendapat dari geologist Indonesia apalagi pendapat
> resmi tim IAGI. Yang sudah berbulan-bulan banting tulang melakukan
> penelitian disana.
>
> Kesimpulan dan moral of the story: Kita belum dianggep.......
>
> Salam
> Oki
>
> Unnatural disaster Sunday June 17, 2007
>  [image: Sidoarjo, East Java, Indonesia (AAP)]
> Reporter: Peter 
Overton<http://sixtyminutes.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=264123>
> Producers: Howard Sacre
> <http://sixtyminutes.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=264627>, Julia 
Timms<http://sixtyminutes.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=264640>
> *At first, we thought this can't be true, it's like some sort of
> pre-historic disaster movie. But it's real all right. A gigantic volcano of
> steaming hot mud as far as the eye can see.* It's already swamped a
> dozen villages on the Indonesian island of Java - and we mean swamped.
> Houses, factories, mosques, everything just swallowed by this relentless
> tide. Forty thousand people have been left homeless, without jobs,
> without hope. And the really infuriating thing is, geologists are 99
> percent certain it's not a natural disaster. It's man-made. The prime
> suspect is a big mining company with strong Australian connections. *
> Transcript* PETER OVERTON: The world has never seen anything like this —
> a gargantuan fountain of mud gushing from the bowels of the earth. Some
> days, the crater surges wildly, on other days it quietens down, but it never
> stops. Too thick to drain away, it's burying everything in its path. This is
> a tragedy of errors backed by Australian money. A story of cover-up and
> suffering that goes all the way to Indonesia's presidential palace. Look —
> our first glimpse. There it is, there. DR MARK TINGAY: Yeah, it is a
> huge, huge eruption. PETER OVERTON: Those houses would just be inundated
> inside. DR MARK TINGAY: They are gone inside. They're just full — full
> of mud. Three hundred and sixty degrees all around you for kilometres, is
> mud. PETER OVERTON: Even for a top geologist, this site defies belief.
> Dr Mark Tingay, from Adelaide University, couldn't wait to see the
> grand-daddy of all mudflows on Indonesia's main island of Java, just west of
> Bali. It's so unpredictable, we're allowed just a few minutes at the crater.
> DR MARK TINGAY: It's just incredible the amount of mud and stuff that's
> coming out of here — all this fluid. PETER OVERTON: A boiling, bubbling
> cauldron, about 100 metres across. This is extraordinary. DR MARK
> TINGAY: This is amazing. This is certainly the biggest mud volcano crater
> I've ever seen and I've seen some of the biggest natural ones in the world. 
PETER
> OVERTON: How hot is it, Mark? DR MARK TINGAY: This would be — I'd say
> the temperature ranges from about 70 to 100 degrees Celsius so it's very,
> very hot. You wouldn't want to put your hand in it! PETER OVERTON: How
> long can this go for? How long could this mud keep spewing up from
> underneath us? DR MARK TINGAY: Well, geologically, mud volcanoes could
> go on for hundreds of thousands of years but, in terms of sort of man-made
> eruptions like this, the longest we've seen them go for is over 20 years. 
PETER
> OVERTON: No-one knows how it will end, but we do know how it started — with
> the mining company's stuff-up. Here's what happened. This time, last year,
> there were exploring for natural gas just to the right of the plume of
> steam. Around here were rice paddies and villages — you can see the roof of
> the local mosque poking up through the mud just over there. Now, when the
> drilling got to nearly 3km under the earth, it struck a high-pressure zone
> and the result was catastrophic. DR MARK TINGAY: When they were drilling
> this well, they have encountered this chamber, or this very large reservoir
> of a highly pressured water. They have lost control there — that water has
> started to come up the bore hole and then got into another shallower level,
> brought up — captured all this mud, eroded all this mud and clay as its come
> and then erupted to the surface. So about 200 metres away from where they
> were drilling. PETER OVERTON: The world's top experts agree this was the
> straight out human error — most likely a failure to shore up the walls of
> the bore hole with a protective casing. DR MARK TINGAY: We're 90 percent
> certain that this, that the drilling, is the trigger for this event. PETER
> OVERTON: So, lives lost, thousands of lives ruined through ineptitude? DR
> MARK TINGAY: 'Ineptitude' is a pretty strong word, Peter. That is a very
> hard one because we don't know what the conditions were when they were
> actually drilling. However, certainly the only reason you don't set casing
> is to cut costs. Because it takes time to set casing and time is money when
> you're drilling. PETER OVERTON: When it started a year ago, it was a
> small geyser of mud and steam in a rice paddy. After a few days, though, all
> hell broke loose, causing a frantic exodus. Levy banks and dams built in
> great haste collapsed just as quickly. A year later, 12 villages are buried,
> 20 factories, roads and rice fields are inundated and nearly 40,000 people
> displaced. We're not talking a trickle of mud here. We're talking about
> something with enormous power and force behind it, aren't we? DR MARK
> TINGAY: The mud is coming up at a great pressure — rates of 100,000 cubic
> metres a day. Now, in sort of layman's terms, that's the equivalent of over
> 100 Olympics swimming pools a day. It is enough to sort of fill up a
> standard house in just a few minutes, your living room in 30 seconds. PETER
> OVERTON: Disasters on this scale normally attract immediate global aid, but
> not here. The new homeless invent ways to survive. To see the mud, there is
> an unofficial toll. Fifty cents to pass and more to park, but can you blame
> them? Here, everyone is fending for themselves but it's hard, hard work.
> This is all to get to that factory that's deep in mud to plunder all the
> lights, the electrical boxes, all the fittings in there, then they'll go and
> sell them and make a quid so they can live day-to-day. Today's haul is
> pretty good and should yield a good price. After this, they went next door
> and took away the roof. Sowagee, how quickly did the mud come into your
> home? SOWAGEE (TRANSLATION): In the first step was 15 minutes our
> villages was flooded. PETER OVERTON: Sowagee and his family's tiny house
> was amongst the first to go, and they lost everything. SOWAGEE
> (TRANSLATION): I was trying to save my children first and then all my stuff
> later. PETER OVERTON: Sowagee lost his job, too, as a construction
> worker. He took us to his last project, repairing a highway which is now the
> road to nowhere, buried for ever. Who do you blame now? SOWAGEE
> (TRANSLATION): This is the mistake of the drilling company. PETER
> OVERTON: Lapindo? TRANSLATOR: Lapindo? (SOWAGEE NODS) PETER OVERTON:
> Lapindo, an Indonesian mining company, is public enemy number one. It's
> scrawled everywhere you look and it's written across the furious faces in a
> nearby shelter for the homeless. Ladies and gentlemen, who do you blame for
> the situation you are in? VILLAGERS: Lapindo! PETER OVERTON: Now this is
> where the waters really get muddy. Lapindo, the mining company, says 'We're
> not to blame!' And, wait for this — they say all this destruction was
> triggered by an earthquake in Yogyakarta, 300km that way, not by the
> drilling rig, which was only 200 metres away. Did your company cut corners
> in the drilling process? IMAM AUGUSTINO: Oh, no. That one is not true. PETER
> OVERTON: Despite mounting evidence, Lapindo boss Imam Augustino refuses to
> budge from the company line that this was a natural disaster. Do you believe
> it was triggered by the earthquake? IMAM AUGUSTINO: This triggered by
> the tectonic activities, not only not only the earthquake, but these
> tectonic activities. PETER OVERTON: These tectonic activities — you mean
> the earthquake Yogyakarta? IMAM AUGUSTINO: Yeah, yeah. DR MARK TINGAY:
> It's difficult for a geologist, like myself, to believe that an earthquake
> 200km away and two days prior to the accident would have caused such an
> event. We would have only had shockwaves to the equivalent of about Richter
> scale two at the site where the eruption took place. Now, that's the
> equivalent of the vibration you get through your feet when you stand next to
> a road and a truck goes by. So it is a very, very light — not a strong
> vibration, by any means. PETER OVERTON: This calamity has cost lives, as
> well as livelihoods. Late last year, 13 people died when the mud engulfed a
> gas pipeline, causing a huge explosion. With little doubt that human error
> caused all this mayhem, East Java police began investigating. They've
> gathered a mountain of evidence so far and they're still going. Are you one
> of the 13 suspects being investigated by the police? IMAM AUGUSTINO:
> Yes. Yep. It is. PETER OVERTON: How does it feel living with that over
> your head? IMAM AUGUSTINO: Of course, it's very hard. PETER OVERTON: You
> could go to jail. IMAM AUGUSTINO: Yes, yep. PETER OVERTON: With tempers
> at boiling point, the Indonesian Government ordered Lapindo to buy every
> block of land, every home and every factory as compensation. But, get this —
> sitting beside President Yudhoyono in Cabinet as Welfare Minister is
> Aburizal Bakrie, a billionaire businessman whose empire includes Lapindo.
> Recently, Mr Bakrie has been trying to off-load the company, but those owed
> money suspect he is trying to offload his liability as well. Let me make
> sense of why I think you want to sell it to an offshore company. It was so
> you could have a company with no assets, no responsibility, so you could
> wash your hands of the problem. IMAM AUGUSTINO: That is not true. PETER
> OVERTON: So, everything I'm saying isn't true? IMAM AUGUSTINO: I don't
> say it's not true but it is not 100 percent correct. PETER OVERTON:
> Lapindo has begun paying compensation but there is a catch — people must
> first prove they own their home and land. IMAM AUGUSTINO: As soon as
> possible, whenever they can provide the certificate of land, they go to the
> government agencies, make verification, and we pay them. PETER OVERTON:
> You know as well as I do that most of these people cannot supply a
> certificate of ownership of the land to their home because it was swallowed
> up by the mud. IMAM AUGUSTINO: No, that's just a case. PETER OVERTON:
> They had 15 minutes to escape. IMAM AUGUSTINO: No, they — who said that,
> 15 minutes? PETER OVERTON: Spare a thought, too, for the Australian
> investors who stood to make a killing but, instead, are losing millions on
> the ill-fated gas well. Santos, the Adelaide-based mining giant, had an 18
> percent slice of the action and is now lumped with 18 percent of the losses.
> Santos corporate vice-president is Martin Eames. How much have you paid out?
> MARTIN EAMES: We have paid out $30 million. PETER OVERTON: And how much
> do you intend to pay out? MARTIN EAMES: Well, we've made a provision in
> our accounts for $89 million. PETER OVERTON: Is Santos paying out for
> the good of the displaced people or because you want to keep the Indonesian
> Government onside? MARTIN EAMES: Well, we're paying it because we feel
> it's the right thing to do, first and foremost, and part of that is because
> of the impact on the people. You know, a decision on paying the money that
> we have done is simply because we feel that is the right thing to do. PETER
> OVERTON: Since there is no taming the flow of the mud, what on earth to do
> with it? A new drainage channel to relieve the massive build up is just a
> trickle compared with what is spewing out of the ground. What is really
> frightening, though, is the scientists' prediction that the giant
> underground chasm left behind could cave-in, sucking everything down with
> it. You're saying that the earth could gobble up the whole lot? DR MARK
> TINGAY: Now, what we really fear that might happen is that that could
> collapse very, very quickly. That all the water and all the soil that has
> been pulled out of the ground could cause the ground above, the surface, to
> collapse. Tens of metres — 20, 30 metres down — in a few, just a few
> seconds, and that would be catastrophic.
>
>
> *Ismail Zaini <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>* wrote:
>
> Berita di koran hari ini , Lha kok ada  jual beli " Proyek akademis "
> apa itu ya ................
> Kemudian ada juga ajakan revolosi , Wah gara gara Lapindo ada
> Revolosi.nanti.............
>
> ISM
> ===================================
>
>
> Interpelasi Lapindo Hindari Jebakan
> **
> Hentikan jual beli proyek akademis yang mengorbankan aspek kemanusiaan.
>
> JAKARTA -- Dukungan interpelasi kasus semburan lumpur Lapindo di
> Sidoarjo, Jawa Timur, menguat di DPR. Hingga Jumat (15/6), sudah 163
> penandatangan dukungan penggunaan hak meminta penjelasan dan bertanya kepada
> pemerintah itu yang akan dibacakan di Rapat Paripurna DPR, Selasa (19/5).
> Penggagas interpelasi memastikan tak akan terjebak dan berkutat dalam
> polemik Tata Tertib DPR tentang perlu hadir-tidaknya Presiden Susilo Bambang
> Yudhoyono seperti dalam kasus interpelasi Iran. Namun, kali ini mereka
> penekannya lebih pada substansi menyelesaikan persoalan lumpur Lapindo yang
> sudah berlangsung sekitar setahun itu.
> ''Hingga saat ini masih ada korban 30 ribu orang yang terlunta-lunta.
> Sekarang tergantung SBY dalam merespon interpelasi kemanusiaan ini, karena
> kami tak ingin terjebak langkah Presiden untuk datang atau tidak,'' ujar
> Komisi V DPR, Abdullah Azwar Anas (FKB), salah satu penggagas interpelasi
> lumpur Lapindo, kepada pers, kemarin.
> Namun Azwar mengingatkan, interpelasi tersebut adalah kesempatan
> Presiden SBY untuk membenahi citra yang menurun untuk menyelesaikan kasus
> Lapindo.
> *Persoalan kebijakan*
> Komisi VII DPR, lanjut Azwar, sudah mengundang para menteri terkait di
> antaranya Menko Perekonomian, Menteri Keuangan, Menteri Pekerjaan Umum,
> Menteri Perumahan Rakyat, Menteri Perhubungan, Menneg PPN/Kepala Badan
> Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional (Bappenas), Gubernur Jatim, dan Bupati
> Sidoarjo, untuk menjelaskan kasus Lapindo. Namun jawaban mereka dianggap
> belum menjamin kebijakan nasional penyelesaian lumpur Lapindo.
> ''Dalam interpelasi ini kami tak ingin terjebak soal teknis, dan
> menggeser substansi masalah. Yang penting substansinya, ada kebijakan
> nasional yang salah dalam menyelesaikan Lapindo,'' jelas Azwar.
> Azwar mencontohkan adanya perbedaan kewenangan penyelesaian luapan
> lumpur Lapindo beberapa waktu lalu, saat membuat kanalisasi luapan lumpur.
> Dalam hal ini, apakah menjadi domain PT Lapindo Brantas atau pemerintah,
> apakah mengganggu ekosistem, dan dalam skala besar mengganggu masyarakat?
> ''Lima BPLS (Badan Penanggulangan Lumpur Sidoarjo) pun tidak akan mampu
> menyelesaikan dengan cepat karena BPLS berasal dari pejabat eselon satu dan
> dua yang harus mengkoordinasi setingkat menteri. Ini salah satu contoh
> persoalan kebijakan itu,'' tegas Azwar.
> Pada Ahad (17/6), lanjut Azwar, tim penggagas interpelasi lumpur Lapindo
> akan menerima kedatangan Pansus Lapindo DPRD Jawa Timur dan DPRD Sidoarjo.
> ''Mereka sudah punya rekomendasi. Harapan kita, rekomendasi itu sejalan
> dengan persepsi kami soal pentingnya interpelasi,'' ujarnya.
> Mengenai dukungan interpelasi lumpur Lapindo sendiri, Azwar mengulas,
> pelan tapi pasti terus bergerak naik, khususnya dari anggota DPR dari daerah
> pemilihan Jawa Timur. ''Penambahan signifikan juga dari Fraksi PPP sekitar
> 17 orang. Tapi dari Fraksi Partai Demokrat yakni Achmad Fauwzi dan Ajie
> Massaid menarik dukungan, sementara dari Fraksi Partai Golkar tetap satu,
> Yuddy Chrisnandi. Golkar kabarnya masih menunggu arahan dari pimpinan
> mereka,'' ungkapnya.
> *Investigasi FPDIP*
> Sementara Fraksi PDIP DPR juga turun tangan dengan membentuk tim
> investigasi lumpur Lapindo. ''Kami akan segera menyusun tim itu,'' ujar
> Sekretaris Fraksi PDIP, Bambang Wuryanto, usai rapat fraksi kemarin. Menurut
> dia, tim investigasi akan beranggotakan seluruh anggota Fraksi PDIP di semua
> komisi di DPR. Tim bertugas mengumpulkan bahan dan masukan serta memberikan
> solusi kepada pemerintah.
> ''Kami telah mendapat bahan masukan dari pakar bahwa ini bisa
> diselesaikan. Kenapa pemerintah tidak bisa? Kalau masukan tim tidak
> digubris, kita bisa revolusi,'' cetus Bambang.
> Sosiologi Universitas Airlangga (Unai) Surabaya, Hotman Siahaan, yang
> hadir dalam rapat Fraksi PDIP, juga mengatakan, pemerintah harus segera
> menuntaskan kasus lumpur Lapindo. ''Harus pula dihentikan jual beli proyek
> akademis. Solusi yang diberikan harus untuk kesejahteraan rakyat di sana,''
> tegasnya, menyindir timbalnya kelompok kampus yang mengabaikan aspek
> kemanusiaan para korban lumpur Lapindo.
> (eye )
>
>
>  ------------------------------
> Get the Yahoo! toolbar and be alerted to new email
> 
<http://us.rd.yahoo.com/evt=48225/*http://new.toolbar.yahoo.com/toolbar/features/mail/index.php>wherever
> you're surfing.
>
>



--
http://rovicky.wordpress.com/

Kirim email ke