Edward Jaffe wrote:

> Maybe it's just you.

I know you would just love that to be true for some vicarious, bizzare reason 
of your own that
I've never been able to fathom, but it isn't.  How many analysts are still 
active in the
mainframe world?  Seen Cheryl lately?

> According to a presentation I attended last week by Terry Virnig (IBM), 4Q05 
> was IBM's
highest mainframe quarter for revenue since 4Q98;

I sit here with IBM's closure lists for three geographies for 1Q06 in front of 
me.  I don't
know what Terri's smoking, but then I never did.  The z900 launch in a back 
room at the
Palisades sticks in my mind, and probably in hers.

Almost no net new software deals in the quarter.

> With respect to market momentum, she presented charts showing that, according 
> to data
obtained from IDC FY2005-Q3 Quarterly Server Tracker,

IDC????  I'll tell you a story.  Back in 1983, I was a CPU product manager for 
NAS Germany.
We had 52 systems installed in Germany.  Two of our major customers (AEG was 
the biggest) had
financial nasties and asked us to help reduce their computing costs.  So we did 
a
consolidation exercise - replacing in each case a number of /158 equivalents 
with single
larger machines.  Our MIPS went up 5% - our installed base dropped by five 
machines.  IDC sent
us their annual form - it was a so-called "shuttle" document.  They printed out 
what they
thought you had, you corrected it and sent it back.  No checks. I filled it out 
properly -
which meant we showed a reduction in the number of machines installed.  My CEO 
demanded I fill
in x percent increase in the installed base, and I refused.

(There are probably still NAS people around who can confirm this story - it got 
quite vocal
pan-european at one point.)

Anyway, I made my refusal permanent and was overridden by my CEO, who submitted 
a bunch of
lies to IDC.  Who then printed them.

http://www.isham-research.co.uk/dd.html#statistics

-- 
  Phil Payne
  http://www.isham-research.co.uk
  +44 7833 654 800

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