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03:05 a.m. Aug 22, 1999 Eastern

Violence clouds outlook for East Timor vote

By Tim Johnston

DILI, East Timor, Aug 22 (Reuters) - East Timorese choose their future in a
week, and while many observers expect them to pick independence from
Indonesia, few believe the violence that has plagued the tiny territory will
go awy.

On August 30, East Timorese will be asked to accept or reject a package that
offers wide-ranging autonomy within Indonesia. If the package is rejected,
Jakarta has promised to give the territory independence.

``I think the pro-autonomy groups have lost it already,'' one senior foreign
election observer said, speaking on condition of anonymity. ``The East
Timorese have had 23 years of Indonesian rule and they don't want any more of
it.''

An estimated 200,000 East Timorese -- a quarter of the population -- have
died since Indonesia invaded the former Portuguese colony in 1975.

The violence has increased since January, when Indonesia abruptly reversed
decades of opposition to independence.

Armed militias, supported by elements of the Indonesian army, have killed
dozens of people and forced tens of thousands of others to flee their homes.

The political leaders of both sides have signed a code of conduct that
guarantees the freedom to campaign, but pro-autonomy militias have attacked
pro-independence groups and offices over the last week.

There have been marked differences in campaign styles.

Pro-independence parties have concentrated on door-to-door visits to explain
the technicalities of the vote. They say it is not safe for a more
demonstrative campaign, adding the people are well aware of their platform
and do not need further explanation.

Pro-Jakarta groups -- backed by the Indonesian military -- have held rallies
to tell people a vote for independence would be a recipe for violence, and
East Timor would be better off as an autonomous region within Indonesia.

There have been dark threats from militia leaders that they would take to the
hills and spread terror after the vote, but the election observer said that
was unlikely.

``They don't have the support of the people and I personally don't think that
they have the political conviction to do it.''

The Catholic Church and United Nations are trying to promote reconciliation
to head off possible violence after the vote.

The United Nations is forming a committee to advise it on reconciliation and
is bringing in more civilian police advisers to help the Indonesian police,
who are responsible for security.

But supporters of independence fear that will not be enough.

``As long as security is in the hands of the Indonesian police, we can never
be sure that the violence will stop,'' said David Ximenes of the National
Council for Timorese Resistance.

The United Nations will stay on after the vote, either to monitor the
implementation of the autonomy package if it passes, or to take over as the
interim authority in East Timor once the Indonesians have pulled out if
autonomy is rejected.

There is no clear timetable, but the Indonesian government must approve
changes to the constitution before its forces leave.

Ximenes has said the United Nations may have to stay four years before power
is formally handed over to the East Timorese.

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Didistribusikan tgl. 23 Aug 1999 jam 01:10:37 GMT+1
oleh: Indonesia Daily News Online <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
http://www.Indo-News.com/
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