Psychological warfare
Diplomacy has replaced mass destruction as the preferred
weapon to eliminate the Lebanese resistance, writes Serene Assir
from Beirut
The small town of Tiri, not far from the better known Bint Jbeil and
Maroun Al-Ras, is typical of many towns and villages in southern
Lebanon. It commands a bird's eye view of the surrounding hills and
villages. It was also the scene of one of the fiercer standoffs between
Hizbullah fighters and invading Israeli troops. Not far from the Israeli
border, there is little in the way of geography, the massive destruction
caused by Israeli bombing, or support for Hizbullah that distinguishes
Tiri from great swathes of the south.
Despite the destruction inflicted by 34 days of continuous bombing it
is hard to escape the pervasive sense of Hizbullah's military victory in
southern Lebanon.
"After what they suffered here, the violence, the psychological
torture, there is no way the Israelis will dare reinvade," Ali, a native
of the town, told Al-Ahram Weekly.
"The Israelis may have had tanks, planes, helicopters, but they
lacked the Hizbullah fighters' self-reliance. The minute they sensed
danger they would squeak like chicks. You saw the images of Israeli
soldiers crying on television -- you know what I'm talking about. They
knew they could no longer fight their war on the military front and even
hope to win."
Instead the war against Lebanon is now being fought on the diplomatic
front, with rumour and Israel's continued naval blockade among the
weapons. And if Israel, along with some in Lebanon, claimed that the
1,183 mostly civilians who perished in the bombardment were "collateral
damage", the new front makes no such distinctions. It is the whole of
Lebanon that is now being squeezed.
While the continued naval blockade is not yet hampering the arrival
of humanitarian aid, it is strangling the Lebanese economy.
"Humanitarian assistance is only a small input and it targets the
most vulnerable. But overall, if the naval blockade continues, then the
whole of Lebanon becomes more and more vulnerable," says UN Humanitarian
Coordinator David Shearer. Israel, though, according to statements
issued by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, has no plans to end that
blockade despite repeated calls by the Lebanese government for it to do
so.
Israeli breaches of United Nations' Security Council Resolution 1701,
met by and large with silence on the part of the international
community, appear designed to intimidate the Lebanese public by
suggesting that Israel is willing and able to reignite hostilities.
"The situation could spin out of control very easily," said Khaled
Mansour, the UN spokesman in Beirut, echoing statements made by UN
special envoy Terje Roed-Larsen following Israel's raid in Baalbek
earlier this week. UN Secretary- General Kofi Annan condemned the raid
as a breach of the resolution but, typical of the international
community's chastisements of Israel in the past, the condemnation was
verbal and there was no suggestion of any action being taken.
Israel's attempts to propagate the atmosphere of fear and uncertainty
in Lebanon are, argue some observers, a strategy to underline who it is
that really calls the shots when it comes to regional diplomacy.
"The statements issued by Larsen act as a form of psychological
pressure," says Charles Harb, a social psychologist at the American
University in Beirut, adding that at this point the potential for an
actual re-escalation of the brutal war is next-to-nil.
And fear there is, along with a yearning for greater stability among
the better off sectors of Lebanese society.
"We are sick and tired of war," said Hani, a young supporter of the
14 March bloc headed in parliament by Saad Al-Hariri. "What we want is a
long-term, sustainable ceasefire with Israel."
Indeed, it already appears that overtures for even more than that
have been made.
Statements made by Olmert earlier in the week suggest the Israeli
government is seeking a peace settlement with Lebanon, something which
Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Al-Siniora has not rejected out of hand.
"The challenge is how to convert what happened in Lebanon -- the
calamity that was inflicted on Lebanon -- into an opportunity to move
toward real peace," Siniora told reporters.
While peace talks between Arab countries and Israel have historically
been long and complicated, and have sometimes ended in failure, Olmert's
recent statements on the current Lebanese government's position speak
volumes. "If the Lebanese government continues this way and if Prime
Minister Siniora continues with his efforts to bring about a change in
Lebanon, I have no doubt that negotiations with Beirut will lead to
formal relations between the two states," he said.
It would be foolish, though, to take the unreality characteristic of
both Lebanese governance and Israel at face value. Statements by UN
officials, and even by US President George W Bush, on the dangers of a
power vacuum in south Lebanon continue to ring true, and the situation
on the ground is completely different from that which a humiliated
Israel and an uncertain Lebanese government want to imagine. Now, more
than ever, the only force with any presence or outreach among the
population in the south -- and elsewhere in Lebanon, though particularly
among the majority Shias -- is Hizbullah. (see pp. 6-7)
