1) Oracle will continue to cause impedance mismatches wherever they go, and as a result the official community (NetBeans, Glassfish...) will shrink while the de-facto community continues to grow (Android, Eclipse...).
2) We will finally see a JDK7 but as per usual uber-compromising style, rather underwhelming and won't really be worth the trouble for most corporations. 3) The web vs. native debate will culminate as the mobile segment starts to cannibalize the desktop segment drawing up a sharp frontline. 4) Plugin technologies (flash, Java, Silverlight) will die as no new projects will adopt this legacy model, pushed primarily by lack of support from the mobile segment. 5) Scala will continue to divide the waters, although it will come out as the definitive Java next gen. This won't be because it's the best, but because it was first at attaining critical mass and ensuring various research grants. The old Java vs. C# debate will be replaced by a new Scala vs. C#. /Casper On Jan 18, 7:47 am, hlovatt <howard.lov...@gmail.com> wrote: > My 4 predictions are: > > 1. Java will get back on track with JDK7's release and stabilisation > of the JCP (or something similar to replace the JCP). A generally more > positive vibe. > > 2. The action in personal computing and to a lesser extent in > corporate computing will center round touch devices, particularly > tablets like the iPad. Sorry Dick, no keyboards. > > 3. The smartphone plus tablet landscape will be in order of sales: > iOS, Android, daylight, the rest. Nokia and RIM the big losers and > also Windows Mobile 7 and WebOS not going well. > > 4. Google and Oracle will slug it out in court over Android; case will > not be resolved this time next year. > > @Chris, Hope you remember to come back to this thread next year and we > can all have a LOL about how bad our predictions are. Good idea to > start the thread. Howard. > > On Jan 18, 12:58 pm, Chris Adamson <invalidn...@gmail.com> wrote: > > > > > > > > > The Posse put out a call for predictions in #336. Whether or not > > anybody likes it, here's mine: > > > "No third-party Android app will attain 'cultural sensation' status in > > 2011, meaning it is widely recognized in the mainstream culture and > > media." > > > I know, the phrasing is peculiar, but it's an article of faith in the > > iOS community that Android needs to put up a "killer app" in 2011 to > > prove it's not just a me-too copycat platform, market share > > notwithstanding. This is sort of a riff on that, but whereas "killer > > app" is usually thought of in terms of functionality -- something > > where you'll buy a device just to use the app -- this is slanted more > > towards the kinds of personal apps (utilities, games, media) that rule > > on smartphones. > > > Examples of "cultural sensation" apps and their platforms: Facebook > > (web), Twitter (web and SMS), Angry Birds (iOS), Guitar Hero / Rock > > Band (various consoles), Wii Sports (Wii). I think in all these > > cases, you could ask someone who doesn't use them what they do, and > > usually get an accurate answer (maybe not a deep one, but better than > > "huh?"). I considered adding the iOS apps Flipboard (which got a lot > > of business press coverage when it came out), and Midomi / Shazam / > > SoundHound (collectively known as "that iPhone app that recognizes > > music"), but don't think they fully meet my criteria. > > > Plus, I'm choosing my battles carefully: this phrasing leaves the door > > open to Google delivering such an app. Heck, "Google Goggles" may > > qualify already. > > > --Chris -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "The Java Posse" group. To post to this group, send email to javaposse@googlegroups.com. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to javaposse+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/javaposse?hl=en.
