---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Wed, Aug 17, 2011 at 11:34 AM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Fw: Pressures bear down on Sudanese strongman To: Group <[email protected]>
1. Pressures bear down on Sudanese strongman Bashir faces rumbles within regime By Ashish Kumar Sen-The Washington Times Sunday, August 14, 2011 A month after he lost part of his country to a new nation, Sudanese President Omar Bashir is facing multiple challenges that could destabilize his regime, Western officials and analysts say. Lt. Gen. Bashir, whom many in Sudan blame for the secession of the south, is under growing pressure from security forces and Islamist hard-liners within his National Congress Party. Sudan also is expected to be hit by a financial crisis after it gives up critical oil revenue to the new nation of South Sudan. Within the Bashir regime, there is also growing resentment over the absence of a significant improvement in relations with the United States since southern independence. South Sudan became an independent nation on July 9. Sudan remains on a U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism and faces crippling sanctions. “In the [National Congress Party], the hard-liners are in the ascendant, and the military is getting stronger. Bashir is in a difficult position,” said a Western diplomat who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Luka Biong Deng, a former minister in the national unity government in Khartoum, told a congressional committee last week that the “leadership of the [National Congress Party] is not only getting weaker and without focus but it is more divided with more radical elements and [the] army directing the affairs of the state.” Gen. Bashir also is likely to face extreme difficulties in making any concessions to South Sudan on the disputed Abyei region, an oil-rich area that straddles the north-south border and is claimed by both sides. The fate of Abyei is among a host of post-independence issues that Sudan and South Sudan are struggling to resolve. Gen. Bashir came to power in an Islamist-backed military coup in 1989. He has since fragmented Sudan’s security services to diminish the threat to his regime. Jon Temin, director of the Sudan program at the U.S. Institute of Peace, said recent developments have created a lot of uncertainty and speculation in Khartoum. “It seems clear that power dynamics within the government are shifting, but that is a fairly common occurrence for Sudan,” he said. “What is uncommon is the combination of simultaneous domestic pressures faced by the government: political blowback for allowing the south to secede; economic pressure that results from southern secession and other factors; and the ongoing fighting in Southern Kordofan state and Darfur.” Gen. Bashir has been indicted by The Hague-based International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes in Darfur. He denies the charges. Western officials and analysts say the growing clout of the Islamist hard-liners is partly responsible for the aggressive response from the regime to developments in Southern Kordofan, situated north of the border with South Sudan. Sudan Armed Forces are fighting units of the southern-affiliated Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) that have refused to give up their arms and return to the south after independence. The rebels, who are fighting for regime change in Sudan, have joined forces with the Darfur-based Justice and Equality Movement. International organizations say Sudan’s army has massacred civilians in the Nuba Mountains in Southern Kordofan. A satellite monitoring group recently revealed the presence of mass graves in the state. Sudanese officials deny the allegations and claim the dispute is an internal matter. John Prendergast, co-founder of the Enough Project, an anti-genocide group, dismissed Sudan’s position. “It is not an internal matter when a government slaughters its own citizens. It is not an internal matter when the government starves its own citizens,” he said. “At some point, the international community is not going to continue to dangle carrots in front of a genocidal regime. At some point, it will start to use sticks.” As insecurity grips large swaths of the country, a financial crisis is expected to hit the north after Sudan and South Sudan reach a deal of sharing oil revenue. A majority of the oil fields are in South Sudan, but the pipelines that carry the oil to the Port of Sudan are in the north. E.J. Hogendoorn, Horn of Africa project director at the International Crisis Group, said the fiscal crunch that Khartoum will face once an agreement on oil revenue sharing is reached is likely to increase discontent within the National Congress Party. If Gen. Bashir’s regime falls, it is not clear what would take its place. “The likely option would be chaos rather than a smooth transfer of power,” said Mr. Hogendoorn. Some regime officials also are growing more resentful of the United States and say Sudan got nothing for its agreement to allow the south to secede. The Obama administration has offered a road map to the Bashir government that links lifting sanctions and removing Sudan from the terrorism list to peace in Darfur and full implementation of a 2005 peace accord that ended two decades of north-south civil war respectively. The road map also includes a referendum on the fate on Abyei. “We are still offering that road map once the [peace treaty] obligations are fulfilled,” said Barrie Walkley, the top U.S. diplomat in South Sudan. A Darfur peace document was signed in Doha, Qatar, between the Sudanese government and one of the rebel groups, the Liberation and Justice Movement, last month. Emad Altohamy, a top Sudanese diplomat in Washington, insisted that his government has met all its obligations and blames the south for blocking the Abyei referendum in January. “We have fulfilled all conditions laid down by the U.S. in a very satisfactory way,” he said in an interview. “The question should be directed to the U.S. When will they lift sanctions and remove Sudan from the list of sponsors of terrorism?” http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/aug/14/pressures-bear-down-on-sudanese-strongman/?page=all#pagebreak END1 2. Sudanese Islamist leader describes a racist Bashir August 14, 2011 (KHARTOUM) – A former ally of Sudanese president Omer Hassan al-Bashir disclosed what he claimed to be a racist aspect of the country’s leader who came to power in a bloodless coup more than twenty years ago. "Bashir is a dictator and he was all the time in favor separating the South [from the North] to focus on suppressing the people of Northern Sudan [who are] demanding freedoms," leader of the Popular Congress Party (PCP) Hassan al-Turabi was quoted as saying by the Cairo-based Al-Shurooq newspaper in an interview published today. "He is also a racist [who] called the Southerners slaves. Even his [former] minister for several years Ali al-Hajj who is a doctor from far west Sudan, Bashir used to call him called ’al-feraik’ meaning a small slave as a word of contempt" he added. Turabi was Bashir’s close political and religious ally since the 1989 coup that was planned by the National Islamic Front (NIF) he led at the time. However, both men fell out together in a bitter power struggle that started in 1999. Since then Turabi has been in and out of jail but was released along with all other political prisoners after a north-south peace deal in 2005. The Islamist leader has been an outspoken critic of Bashir and his government. He is been accused by Khartoum of being the figure behind the Darfur Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) that has been fighting the central government since 2003. "He [Bashir] is also primitive meaning narrow-minded who sees nothing but his clan. He even asked [Al- Qaeda leader Osama] bin Laden when he came to Sudan to finish a paved road to his village north of Khartoum which was completed only after we asked that it reaches the country’s only port in Port Sudan" Turabi said. Turabi further said that one of Bashir’s problems is that he is backed by his army which resented the war in the the South that lasted for over two decades. "So it was easy for them to get rid of the south .. This is the politics that created a deadlock for Bashir in the 90’s so he was forced to recruit young men. I used to tell them [youngsters militias] in lectures at their camps do not be like the soldiers who are killing, raping and looting. This is the [army’s] attitude everywhere in the world. Be different, do not kill peaceful [people] and if you see [someone] hungry feed him from your supplies," the PCP leader said. This is not the first time Turabi points fingers at Bashir accusing him of making derogatory remarks against other ethnicities. Last year Turabi said that Bashir questioned whether rape of Darfuri women s a crime that should be punished during his meeting with the national commission of inquiry established in 2004 to investigate alleged right abuses in Darfur. “One senior [member] from the commission, without naming him, said after we were sworn in [before Bashir] we sat down with the person that we took the oath before him, you know who is," he added. "He [Bashir] told us, [if] this Gharbawia [Darfuri woman], when a Ja’ali [man from the Ja’al tribe] man humps her, is this an honor or rape?” The commission member according to the Turabi told him that "his hair stood on end" when he heard Bashir’s comment and was speechless. "I swear to you in the name of god this story was told to me [by someone] I know very well" Turabi said. The Sudanese president in May 2004 issued a decree establishing the National Commission of Inquiry in Darfur chaired by Dafa Allah Elhadj Yousuf who is a longtime and close friend of Turabi. It was mandated with collecting information on alleged violations of human rights in the restive region. The Sudanese government at the time refused to comment on Turabi’s sensitive allegations which he made publicly. In 2008 seven people were killed and 107 were wounded in clashes between members of the Hausa tribe and Sudanese authorities in different parts of the country after a newspaper attributed a statement to Bashir in which he described them as "foreigners with no presence in the country" in light of their Nigerian origins. Bashir rushed to meet with Hausa leaders and swore to them that what was published in the interview was not true. At the time ruling party officials accused Turabi’s party of standing behind the riots. The Sudanese president faces ten counts by the International Criminal Court (ICC) of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide that he is accused of orchestrating in Darfur against the Fur, Masaalit and Zaghawa African ethnic groups. Sudan does not recognize the court and calls it a Western plot to isolate and fragment the country. Bashir has received strong backing from African nations against the Hague-based court. (ST) END2 3. Border state governor says ‘mismanagement’ led to South Sudan split August 15, 2011 (KHARTOUM) – Chronic mismanagement is a major factor behind South Sudan’s split from the north, according to the governor of a northern state abutting the south. Sudan split in two in July 9 when the south officially seceded in line with the outcome of the region’s vote on independence at the start of this year. The plebiscite was promised under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement which ended in 2005 more than two decades of north-south civil wars. Malik Aggar, governor of Sudan’s southern state of Blue Nile which lies on the ill-defined borders with the South, on Sunday addressed a farewell ceremony of 201 southern employers in his state’s capital Al-Damazin. In his speech, Aggar said that mismanagement in Sudan was a major reason for the south’s split. “Secession was caused by the policy of intolerance,” he added. Aggar, who chairs the northern offshoot of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) which rules the south, advised the southerners to “adopt the beautiful things from the north and refrain from intolerance.” The Blue Nile State lies inside the north but it shared political and military struggle with the south. The state’s population largely sided with the south during the civil war with the north on basis of common grievances of neglect and underdevelopment. Aggar expressed his dissatisfaction with the south’s secession but he later said he was optimistic the two countries could reunite. He added that the south’s resources could reflect positively on the level of development if these resources were to be used judiciously. According to Aggar, problems occur in the south due to the lack of education Under the CPA, Blue Nile State and South Kordofan were promised a plebiscite dubbed “popular consultation” in order to gauge local satisfaction with the agreement’s implementation and produce recommendations on re-structuring governance relationship with the north. However, the popular consultation in Blue Nile stalled as South Kordofan descended into a state of war between the northern army and forces aligned with the south since early June. Aggar lamented the fate of the “dying” popular consultation process. He pointed out that the vote was supposed to take place within the CPA’s six-year transitional period, adding that the transitional period has not been extended. Sudan’s parliament last month endorsed a bill extending the popular consultation process by six months after its deadline expired with the end of the CPA in July. Aggar previously warned that approving the law would be a violation of the CPA and that he would not recognize it. He called on the citizens to "resist the unjust and oppressive law which was passed by a single party that represents no one but itself," in reference to the ruling National Congress Party in the north. (ST) END3 4. Umma Party to work together with SPLM Sunday, 14 August 2011 19:30 Miraya The Leader of the Sudanese opposition Umma Party, Saddiq Al Mahdi, has said that his party will sign a memorandum of understanding with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement. Addressing the press in Khartoum, Al Mahdi said that the memorandum will establish a partnership between the two parties that will help in resolving the issues still outstanding after the separation of Sudan and South Sudan. He said that the problems in Sudan can not be solved separately from the issues in South Sudan. http://www.radiomiraya.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=6625:umma-party-a-splm-to-sign-a-mou&catid=85:85&Itemid=278 END4 5. SAF: Hosting Armed Rebels in the South Violates international Law Posted on Sunday, August 14 @ 00:25:00 UTC by admin Sudan Vision By: Al-Sammani Awadallah Khartoum – Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) has announced its rejection of South Sudan’s accommodation of Darfur armed movement to destabilize Sudan, a in a reference to reports about existence of alliance between North Sudan People’s Liberation Movement and Darfur armed Movement to establish a military base in South Sudan’s state of Unity. Sudan Military Spokesperson Brig. Al-Sawarmi Khalid Saad said the international law prohibits South Sudan state destabilize any state or attempt to accommodate an opposition, or form military cells to maneuver Sudan or any other country is deemed international crime, and that Sudan reserves the right to resort to international justice to recover its rights. He affirmed that Sudan can turn to such procedures in the event South Sudan accommodates Darfur armed movements and north Sudan SPLM. The spokesperson said the second option is concerted crackdown, pointing out that law allows Sudan Armed Forces to crackdown on whosoever attempts to destabilize Sudan escapes or resort to another country. In this connection, Saad cited a protocol signed between Sudan and Uganda regarding cracking down on Lord Resistance Army (LRA) inside Sudanese territories. In response to SPLM north Sudan declaration of having an army or it will form a military wing, Saad told Sudan Vision said such declaration was against the Constitution in such case the north sector [SPLM] will no longer be deemed a political body but an independent rebel entity and should be dealt with a rebels against the government, law and Constitution. However, the spokesperson affirmed Sudan’s military’s capability of deterring any rebellion against the country. Earlier, newly formed National Resistance Front made up of Sudan Liberation Movements separately led by Abdul Wahid and Minawi and North Sudan People’s Liberation Movement known as “North Sector” recently held a meeting in Juba in the presence of James Huth, Chief of Staff of South Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), considerable number of SPLM leaders in South Kordufan and the Blue Nile states, some leaders from Minnawi’s movement and Deputy Commander of rebel Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). A sources said the meeting had decided to establish a military command for the Front in the region of Manga, Unity state. The command of the military zone in Manga, according to the decision of the meeting, was assigned to SPLA Chief of Staff, while field command was assigned to SPLM and JEM troops; logistic support was left for SLM –Abdul Wahid, and Minnawi Movement was assigned with technical support, Sudan Armed Forces has announced its rejection of South Sudan’s accommodation of Darfur armed movement to destabilize Sudan, a in a reference to reports about existence of alliance between North Sudan People’s Liberation Movement and Darfur armed Movement to establish a military base in South Sudan’s state of Unity. Sudan Military Spokesperson Brig. Al-Sawarmi Khalid Saad said the international law prohibits South Sudan state destabilize any state or attempt to accommodate an opposition, or form military cells to maneuver Sudan or any other country is deemed international crime, and that Sudan reserves the right to resort to international justice to recover its rights. He affirmed that Sudan can turn to such procedures in the event South Sudan accommodates Darfur armed movements and north Sudan SPLM. The spokesperson said the second option is concerted crackdown, pointing out that law allows Sudan Armed Forces to crackdown on whosoever attempts to destabilize Sudan escapes or resort to another country. In this connection, Saad cited a protocol signed between Sudan and Uganda regarding cracking down on Lord Resistance Army (LRA) inside Sudanese territories. In response to SPLM north Sudan declaration of having an army or it will form a military wing, Saad told Sudan Vision said such declaration was against the Constitution in such case the north sector [SPLM] will no longer be deemed a political body but an independent rebel entity and should be dealt with a rebels against the government, law and Constitution. However, the spokesperson affirmed Sudan’s military’s capability of deterring any rebellion against the country. Earlier, newly formed National Resistance Front made up of Sudan Liberation Movements separately led by Abdul Wahid and Minnawi and North Sudan People’s Liberation Movement known as “North Sector” recently held a meeting in Juba in the presence of James Huth, Chief of Staff of South Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), considerable number of SPLM leaders in South Kordufan and the Blue Nile states, some leaders from Minnawi’s movement and Deputy Commander of rebel Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). A sources said the meeting had decided to establish a military command for the Front in the region of Manga, Unity state. The command of the military zone in Manga, according to the decision of the meeting, was assigned to SPLA Chief of Staff, while field command was assigned to SPLM and JEM troops; logistic support was left for SLM –Abdul Wahid, and Minnawi Movement was assigned with technical support, http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=79315 END5 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +249 919 695 362 (Sudan mobile) +27 82 853 3556 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "sudan-john-ashworth" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.co.za/group/sudan-john-ashworth -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "JFD info" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/jfdinfo?hl=en.
