To: Carlos Sanchez
Of course my figures are estimates based on several assumptions. But I
have 22 years of real-world experience upon which to base my estimates.
The possible scenarios that I put forth in my long message about
development costs, though definitely not 100% accurate, have a lot
more in relation with real world possibilities than someone
saying "The price is high because HJ has a monopoly"
There were plenty of areas where I could be off, but I wanted to point
out that there are many factors that some people have ignored.
The reason I wanted to point them out is that some people have
been making unfair, unfounded, and un-knowledgeable statements
about software development in general and HJ in particular.
Software development is something I know a little about.
For all I know, the "hooks" for NT could have been placed in the code
when the first 32-bit version of JFW was written for Windows 95. That
means that less effort would have been needed to advance the code
from Windows 95 to Windows NT compatible later on. However, that
does not change the fact that money and time had to have been spent
getting it ready for Windows NT in the first place. In other words,
if code was placed in the original 95 version that wasn't truly needed
until the NT version came out, the cost of that code still
needs to be eventually recouped by NT sales.
My figures on how many programmers it takes, how much they are paid,
and how long it takes them could be off, but those factors have to
be taken into consideration. Before you can estimate the answers,
you have to know the questions. And even Henter Joyce didn't know
the actual costs until after the development was done. At some point
in time they were acting on their own estimates.
Just another factor. Microsoft starting warning and trying to prepare
software developers for 32-bit development way back in the Windows
3.1 days. There were even several 32-bit API (application programming
interface) packages for Windows 3.1 that Microsoft told people to use,
but also warned it would not be 100% compatible with later operating
systems that were true 32-bit. The problem for developers is that
Microsoft keeps changing and coming out with new and different API's.
It's a moving target for developers, which increases costs for
each "flavor" of the software product. And because JFW is so closely
"married" to the internals of the operating system, these factors
affect JFW more than they do other software such as accounting packages.
I was probably off about the $400 marketing cost per copy, and $300 support
cost per copy, too. Maybe it's one third marketing, one third support, and
one third towards development. Maybe it's one quarter marketing, one
quarter support, one quarter development, and one quarter profit. The
point is that businesses have to estimate those things based on
many complex factors, then come up with formal plans and budgets, then
work like the devil to make it all a success. If they screw up, people
lose jobs and companies go out of business. If they are successfull,
then a profit is the reward for the businessmen and investors who
took the gamble in the first place.
And yes, I hope HJ is marketing (not just advertising, big difference)
their NT version differently than their Win 95 version. Whether they
actually do market them differently, I don't know for a fact. Ted
Henter is a much better businessman than I am, so I don't think
he really needs my help.
Good businessmen are always seeking feedback
from their customers on how to make their product better and on how
to serve their customers better. So if you have any good suggestions
on how to make JFW better, or how Henter-Joyce can better serve their
customers, please send them email at [EMAIL PROTECTED] or [EMAIL PROTECTED]
or [EMAIL PROTECTED] Those addresses are right from their web page.
How do I know marketing needs to be different for NT than it does for
95 or 98? Because in general NT is used in different places and in
different ways than is 95. All this is going to change within the
next two years, anyway. But NT is generally not found in homes.
NT is generally not sold at Best Buy, Circuit City, Wal-Mart, etc.
NT is generally not found in small to medium sized businesses.
NT and NT networks require a lot of training and support,
so they are mainly found in large corporations and in government
agencies. Before you tell me that JFW is not sold at Best Buy and
Circuit City, you need to realize that people who buy their
computers at those places are among the target audience for JFW for 98.
Even though HJ doesn't sell at Best Buy, they have to reach the
kinds of people who shop there. And the NFB is not going to tell
a parent to go out and buy an NT computer for their blind child,
at least I hope they don't.
It should go without saying that businesses market to large corporations
and government agencies a bit differently than they market to small
to medium sized businesses and to home users. But since you're
a smart Seton Hall University student, intensely studying business,
you probably already knew that.
If you think that an increase in users of this JFW mailing list
somehow implies an increase in profits at Henter Joyce, then you,
my friend, are the one making the baseless assumptions. It
is a wild assumption to even correlate the number of users here to
the sales of HJ products, because there are more factors that get
people to subscribe than just the number of sales of JFW. Word of
mouth is a big factor. The increasing percentage
of computer users who have Internet access is another big factor.
People finding the list's home page on search engines could be
a factor. Maybe HJ support people are advertising the list more.
Even if HJ is making more sales, sales do not guarantee profit.
They might have increased their spending on development, hiring
more programmers, hiring more support people, getting
ready for Windows 2000 or whatever, and could very well not be
making any profit at all even if sales are up.
By the way, if you think HJ is doing something wrong, feel free to write
Ted Henter and set him straight. I'm sure that you, as a Seton Hall
University business student, have a lot you could teach him!
At 02:07 PM 1/9/1999 -0500, you wrote:
>Greetings:
>
>As a student at Seton Hall University who is intensly studying the ins and
>outs of business, I recognize what you are trying to say. Some of your
>numbers, with all do respect, is based on assumption and not fact. As far
>as the mention about the cost for JFW's for NT, I comprehend what could
>esentialy be involved. Not to mention that in order to be a leader in this
>market they have to bear the cost a little more than HJ's competitors. As
>far as marketing, do you think that HJ advertizes jfw for 95 and 98 any
>differently from what they would for NT. Well if that's the case, I think
>they are doing it wrong. Regarding the SMA's I never said that they should
>be excluded. Future development of this current product with other new
>products clearly depends on it! If we can't ask HJ's accounting department,
>the the best person to ask about if there is a dramatic increase of JFW
>users is the Owner of this list, Nick. The increase of members on this list
>does not demonstrate exactly how much more money HJ has made recently since
>their 3.2 release, but there is clearly a coralation that demonstrates that
>there are much more users of HJ's windows screen reading product then ever
>before and thus, an apparent increase in there profit margine. I can thank
>this to their aggressive marketing and quality product.
>
>I believe the less though was not how much nt costs as opposed to how much
>less jfw for 95/98 cost, but just simply how much JFW for NT costs. JFW for
>windows 95/98 has always cost 795 dollars. There would be no other reason
>why it would cost more, unlike the NT version. Anyway, thanks for the
>lesson...
>
>Happy blessings,
>Carlos A. Sanchez, Jr.
>Proud brother of Pi Kappa Phi Fraternity
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: dave <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>;
>[EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>Date: Saturday, January 09, 1999 12:52 PM
>Subject: Re: Price of JAWS
>
>
>>To: Carlos Sanchez
>>
>>If HJ were to even double the price of the SMA, it would still be
>>a good bargain for customers. Please read the long message containing
>>my cost analysis of the price of JFW for NT to learn some of the
>>many things that go into the price.
>>
>>In my experience, it costs more to maintain a piece of software
>>over its life span than it costs to develop it in the first place,
>>I've been working with software since 1971.
>>
>>If a software company has to bundle many years worth of updates
>>and maintenance into the original selling price, they would price
>>themselves out of business. And if they don't come out with regular
>>updates, bug fixes, and general improvements, they will also go out
>>of business. Therefore, an ongoing maintenance fee is the fairest
>>way to make sure the customer can get updates and bug fixes, and also
>>to make sure the software company is fairly reimbursed for all the
>>work they put into the development and ongoing maintenance of the software.
>>
>>And to your other statement, no, I cannot agree that HJ is making more
>>money than ever before. Unless we see all of their accounting reports
>>going back for all the years, we just don't know that.
>>
>>At 11:06 AM 1/9/1999 -0500, you wrote:
>>>Well if this is the case, then why is it that HJ finds it necessary to
>raise
>>>the price of SMA's. You got to agree that HJ is making more money then
>ever
>>>before. Why the increase? Could it be that they are taking the
>>>incorporation of Magic into account. Well at any case my biggest gripe is
>>>that just when something gets good something else goes bad. It's like
>they
>>>can't keep everything working all together good. Overall it is the best
>but
>>>the little imperfections that are around with JFW's scripts are
>>>accumilatively annoying.
>>>
>>>Best regards,
>>>Carlos
>>
>>
>>-
>>Visit the jfw ml web page: http://yoyo.cc.monash.edu.au/~nallan/jfw
>
>-
>Visit the jfw ml web page: http://yoyo.cc.monash.edu.au/~nallan/jfw
>
-
Visit the jfw ml web page: http://yoyo.cc.monash.edu.au/~nallan/jfw
