Cement Stocks Outlook for the week - 02.12.2013 - 06.12.2013

www.rupeedesk.in

We expect stocks of major cement companies to trade in the positive space 
during the week as recovery in price, despite a slow growth in demand; of 
construction material is seen auguring well for manufacturers' margins. 
Cement companies announced price hike of 10-25 rupees per bag across 
regions in the first and second week of November. These come after the 
previous price increase, during the last week of September, was rolled back 
in October. The rise in prices was primarily led by strong production 
discipline rather than improvement in demand. Sustainability of price 
recovery, improvement in operating and stock performance is critically 
dependent on sustained demand recovery. In large caps, we prefer ACC and 
Shree Cement, while in mid caps we prefer Madras Cement, Dalmia Bharat and 
Birla Corp.

There are indications of a further rise of 10-15 rupees per bag in the 
first week of December. Cement demand improved in the past 10 days in 
certain pockets of the retail segment after the festive season but the 
demand from the institutional segment was absent. We expect improvement in 
cement demand with the festive season over, labour shortage problem easing, 
recent lifting of sand mining ban in Rajasthan, likely traction in 
pre-general election spending with the assembly elections in some states 
over and rural demand picking up. We continue to believe in a gradual 
recovery in cement demand as well as prices in 2HFY14.

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