Oil Stocks Outlook for the week - 02.12.2013 - 06.12. 2013
www.rupeedesk.in

Stocks of state-owned oil marketing companies Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat 
Petroleum Corp Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd are seen under 
pressure next week on concerns over bulk diesel pricing, but the trend will 
be determined by the rupee-dollar movement. The government is set to 
partially roll back the deregulation of bulk diesel sale price and allow 
state transport undertakings to buy at subsidised rates. While the move may 
not have a big financial impact immediately, markets see it as a step back 
from the government's stated policy of moving towards total deregulation of 
diesel prices. Also, the Indian currency has not gained any ground against 
the dollar in the last two weeks and remained stuck in the 62-63 per dollar 
range. Crude oil prices, too, haven't softened much, against expectations 
that the temporary reprieve provided by the western countries to Iran would 
cool prices.

>From $108.70 a barrel last week, the price of Indian basket of crude 
increased to $109.70 per bbl this week. However, stocks of Reliance 
Industries are expected to strengthen in the near term mainly because of 
lower valuations. The stock valuation is "compelling" now as it is trading 
at 15-20% discount of its historical averages. Also, the chances of the 
company getting a higher price for its gas output seems to have improved as 
Oil Minister Veerappa Moily has indicated that the government will allow it 
to charge a higher price after it agrees to provide a bank guarantee until 
their dispute is resolved. This move alone could increase earnings by 10% 
in F2015 (2014-15, Apr-Mar).

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