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STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update
24 February 2000 Sino-Russian Strategic Alliance Slowed by Internal Issues Summary Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan is scheduled to travel to Moscow Feb. 28 to discuss Sino-Russian relations. He will also prepare for an anticipated summit between Chinese President Jiang Zemin and acting Russian President Vladimir Putin - if Putin wins the March presidential elections. Confusion and ambiguity have surrounded the potential Putin-Jiang summit, as domestic concerns, particularly in China, have distracted the countries in their movement toward a strategic partnership. Unconfirmed reports assert that China's top leaders were caught off guard by former Russian President Boris Yeltsin's resignation, demonstrating that while the two nations may share a strategic interest in creating a multi- polar world, a disconnect remains between the nations' domestic interests. Analysis Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan will visit Moscow Feb. 28 - March 1 to deepen "the existing strategic and cooperative relations between the two countries," according to China's Foreign Ministry. During the visit, Tang will coordinate bilateral contacts with Russia, which will likely include "mutual visits of [acting Russian President] Vladimir Putin and [Chinese President] Jiang Zemin," reported ITAR-Tass. So far, a definitive date has not been set for a Putin-Jiang summit, though all indications suggest it will occur between the March Russian presidential elections and the July G8 summit in Japan. The long-planned Sino-Russian summit, postponed several times in 1999, took place in name only during a brief visit by Russia's former president Boris Yeltsin to Beijing in early December (http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/120799.asp). Moscow has indicated that one of the first foreign visits of the next Russian president will be to China. While Moscow has planned for Putin to visit China, Beijing has appeared for the most part aloof to pre-summit preparations. Although projecting an image of aloofness is not an unusual negotiating tactic for the Chinese, deeper reasons may exist for China's apparent lack of interest in the summit. Despite long preparations for a Sino-Russian summit, China was apparently caught off guard by Yeltsin's New Year's Eve resignation. As late as Dec. 30, China's ambassador to Russia was still talking about prime minister-level talks in spring 2000 between Putin and Zhu Rongji in Beijing, giving no indication of an imminent power shift. Further, the Hong Kong magazine Kai Fang Feb. 1 cited "well-informed sources in Beijing" who said Jiang and other upper-level Chinese Communist Party officials were "immensely shocked" by the news of Yeltsin's resignation. Not only does this suggest that Moscow was not entirely open with Beijing, it also demonstrates a severe failure on the part of Chinese intelligence, if the report is accurate. China's lack of awareness of a major change of power in Russia - while working on a strategic partnership to counter U.S. global hegemony - is a clear sign that Beijing is preoccupied with other issues. While it was increasingly apparent in fall 1999 that Moscow was undergoing a change in leadership [http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/GIU/081099.ASP], China was preoccupied with internal instabilities: the Falun Gong and the country's 50th anniversary celebrations, the repercussions of the U.S. bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui's declaration of "state-to-state" relations and World Trade Organization negotiations. China's leaders are now trying to understand what is happening in Russia and whom they are dealing with in Moscow. Despite shared interest in being able to counterbalance U.S. global reach, both are concerned that the other will ally with the United States and both have an interest in maintaining ties with the United States for economic reasons. Pressing domestic concerns in both countries further impact the realization of the Sino-Russian strategic alliance. As China and Russia edge closer to a presidential summit, China will remain wary of Russia, holding off any formal commitment until after Moscow's elections. (c) 2000, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/ __________________________________________________ _______
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