>From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>Date: Sun, 17 Sep 2000 21:41:27 EDT
>Subject: [STOPNATO.ORG.UK] Shifting Tides in the Caspian


>Azerbaijan: Russia Worries About U.S. Gift Of Boats
>By Michael Lelyveld
>
>
>Russian State Duma Speaker Gennady Seleznyov has warned about the presence of
>"alien ships" on the Caspian Sea. His concern seems to be that the United
>States will gain a foothold because of two boats that are being given to
>Azerbaijan for its border patrol. RFE/RL correspondent Michael Lelyveld says
>the incident may highlight greater problems with arguments over terrorist
>threats.
>
>Boston, 14 September 2000 (RFE/RL) -- Russian nationalists appear to be
>worried that the United States will use the threat of terrorism in Central
>Asia and the Caucasus to establish a naval presence in the Caspian Sea.
>
>On Tuesday, the speaker of Russia's State Duma, Gennady Seleznyov, raised the
>Caspian issue during a meeting in Moscow with Iranian Ambassador Mehdi
>Safari. According to reports by ITAR-TASS and the Iranian official news
>agency IRNA, the two sides agreed that "vessels with military equipment
>should be barred" from the Caspian as concern rises about terrorism on both
>sides of the waterway.
>
>Seleznyov was quoted as saying, "we do not to want to see alien ships in the
>Caspian. There is a need to achieve a consensus decision as soon as possible."
>
>Seleznyov was apparently referring to two patrol boats which the U.S.
>government is reportedly providing to Azerbaijan. This week at a conference
>in Washington, Steven Sestanovich, adviser to U.S. Secretary of State
>Madeleine Albright on the Newly Independent States, referred to the patrol
>boats as part of aid to Azerbaijan to fight terrorism and strengthen its
>borders.
>
>A State Department official in Washington, who was checking the reports,
>downplayed any reason for concern about the patrol craft. The official told
>RFE/RL, "we've been working with a number of countries to help them increase
>their border security. It's probably just related to that." There seems to be
>no question that the boats are to be manned by Azerbaijani personnel, not
>Americans.
>
>But the reactions of Russia and Iran may have numerous causes. Both nations
>seem particularly sensitive to the potential for encroachment because of
>their recent failure to agree on a legal division of the Caspian Sea.
>Seleznyov may be eager to argue that Iran should reach an accommodation with
>Russia over the division issue, raising the specter of foreign interference
>in the absence of a unified front.
>
>Russia's concern over "alien ships" seems to echo its objections to a
>proposal last year by former Azerbaijani presidential adviser Vafa Quluzade
>for a NATO presence in Azerbaijan. Russia may feel erosion of its power in
>the oil-rich Caspian region due to a meeting last week of the security
>structure known GUUAM, consisting of Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan,
>Azerbaijan, and Moldova. Romania reportedly showed interest this week in
>joining the group.
>
>Since July, Azerbaijan also has been wary of border problems in the Caspian
>because of unverified incidents involving both Russia and Iran. Reports last
>month that Iran's leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ordered a buildup of forces
>on the Azerbaijani border including 34 patrol boats now appear to have been
>falsified. Concerns about Russian fishing trawlers in Azerbaijani waters last
>month also seem to have been overblown.
>
>But the alarms raised by Azerbaijani news reports have been difficult to
>defuse. Russia added to the concerns by blocking truck traffic for weeks on
>the Azerbaijani border, while repeatedly accusing Azerbaijan of giving
>medical treatment to Chechen rebels.
>
>But more than anything, the Russian reaction to U.S. aid for Azerbaijan's
>border security seems to show the wide range of effects from threats that
>have been broadly branded as "terrorism." The label has been stretched to
>cover insurgencies across a wide arc from Chechnya to Central Asia, despite
>the difficulty of proving that all the problems come from the same source.
>
>Russia has tried to link the war in Chechnya with fighting in the Ferghana
>Valley in Uzbekistan, when it has suited its purposes. The strategy has
>helped to ensure there will be little sympathy for Chechen rebels among
>authorities elsewhere in the CIS. But that approach has so far failed with
>Iran, which has repeatedly objected to Russian actions in Chechnya and has
>sent aid to refugees there. By raising fears over "alien ships," Seleznyov
>may hope to create a new common cause.
>
>In the past week, the United States appears to have joined in the concerns
>about regional security by funding a joint exercise in Kazakhstan involving
>troops from nine nations, including Russia and four other CIS states.
>
>But so far, there have been no reports of terrorist threats to Caspian
>maritime borders. The concerns have come from other shoreline nations. By
>aiding Azerbaijan's ability to patrol its waters, the United States may be
>trying to do little more than to strengthen the country's statehood. The
>greatest danger may be in Seleznyov's interpretation that two boats donated
>to Azerbaijan will create a militarization of the Caspian by "alien ships."
>
>Beyond that, there is the risk that arguments over terrorism will be spread
>in an ever-widening circle to fit any problem that authorities perceive. It
>started with Chechnya and has now made its way into the Caspian, but it seems
>unlikely that all of the region's problems will respond to the same call.
>
>
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