>Date: Sat, 9 Dec 2000 02:49:03 EST >Subject: Fwd: WELCOME TO IWPR'S CAUCASUS REPORTING SERVICE, NO. 61 > >In a message dated 08/12/00 15:11:42 Eastern Standard Time, [EMAIL PROTECTED] >writes: > ><< TUG OF WAR > > Russia and America play a tense game of political chess in the South > Caucasus > > By Susanna Petrosian in Yerevan > > The South Caucasus has been described as the "last great theatre of the Cold > War" with both Russia and America vying for the affections of the three > former Soviet republics. > > But here the goal is not ideological victory but control over the oil and > gas pipelines between the Caspian Sea and the West. And, to complicate > matters still further, the newly independent states are proving they have > minds of their own. > > Russia's Blue Stream ("Goluboy Potok") project -- a planned gas pipeline > under the Black Sea between Russia and Turkey -- marks the latest attempt to > the break the deadlock. The move is calculated to counterbalance the effects > of a US-funded pipeline being built to transport Caspian oil through Georgia > and into Turkey. > > Already ratified by the Russian and Turkish parliaments, Blue Stream could > supply Turkey with more than 16 billion cubic metres of Russian gas every > year. By 2005, nearly 60 per cent of Turkey's gas would be imported from > Russia. > > The Russians make no secret of their ambitions. Rem Vyakhirev, chairman of > Gazprom, comments, "Apart from the economic sense of the plan, it's vital > for Russia to maintain geo-political influence in the region". > > The United States, on the other hand, has turned its attention to > Turkmenistan in a bid to offer Turkey an alternative to Russian gas. Here > plans are afoot to transport Turkmen gas across the Caspian, through > Azerbaijan and into Turkey. The cost of the pipeline has been estimated at > $2.5 billion. > > Azerbaijan, which will also use the facility to transport its own gas > supplies, is set to begin construction of the pipeline from the Shakh-Deniz > deposit by the end of this year. > > But the project has run into troubled waters. Turkmenistan is unhappy with > the role being played by Azerbaijan in the project and is currently > reviewing the possibility of selling gas to Russia and Iran. > > Alexander Iskandarian, director of the Centre for Caucasian Research in > Moscow, says the situation - compounded with Azerbaijan's intention to > export gas to Turkey independently - could eventually scupper the > Trans-Caspian initiative. > > The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline consortium is making last-ditch attempts to > defuse the crisis. Vice president Kevin Graham said that, if the Turkmen > leadership refused to accept the terms of the agreement, Ankara would reject > the Shakh-Deniz proposal in favour of Blue Stream. > > Meanwhile, Russia continues to pursue an aggressive foreign policy in the > South Caucasus. Earlier this year, for example, at the insistence of the > World Bank, Armenia excluded the Russian company Itera from an international > tender to privatise the power supply network. Russia duly responded by > cutting off its gas supplies to Armenia. > > As a result, the Armenian government decided to privatise the network in two > stages - precluding the possibility of any one company monopolising the > distribution network. The leadership in Yerevan was no doubt prompted by the > bitter struggle then taking place between Itera and its American rival, AES > Silk Road. > > According to David Petrosian, an analyst at the Noyan Tapan news agency, a > subsequent law passed by the Armenian government which imposes tight > controls on potential investors should "cool down" Silk Road's interests in > the region. > > In Georgia at least, Itera has already emerged victorious over the American > consortium. Georgia's debt to Itera is nearing $80 million and, earlier this > year, Silk Road refused an invitation to take part in the privatisation of > Tbilgaz -- a move which most analysts interpret as a recognition of Itera's > preeminence in the region. > > At the same time, RAUES, the Russian electric power conglomerate, has > stepped up its activities in the South Caucasus. RAUES has announced plans > to invest around $800,000 in AO Pontoell, a consortium founded by energy > companies from Russia, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. > > Ultimately, the West has little hope of breaking Russia's influence over the > Caucasus region. Mkrtich Zardarian, senior expert at the Armenian Centre for > National and Strategic Research, points out that US plans for the export of > oil and gas without the participation of Russia and Iran are not only > non-productive - they are also almost impossible to realise. > > Susanna Petrosian is a correspondent for the Noyan Tapan news agency in > Yerevan > >> > > > > >______________________________________________________________________ >To unsubscribe, write to [EMAIL PROTECTED] > >Special offer from Palo Alto Software, The Planning People > >Kick start your business with Business Plan Pro. For a limited time >bCentral.com users can receive a free copy of Cash Plan Pro with >every order of Business Plan Pro. >http://www.bcentral.com/listbot/paloalto >Content-Type: message/rfc822 >Content-Disposition: inline > >Return-Path: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >Received: from rly-xb04.mx.aol.com (rly-xb04.mail.aol.com [172.20.105.105]) >by air-xb04.mail.aol.com (v77.14) with ESMTP; Fri, 08 Dec 2000 15:11:41 -0500 >Received: from leslie.mystery.com (leslie.mystery.com [198.202.235.7]) by >rly-xb04.mx.aol.com (v77.27) with ESMTP; Fri, 08 Dec 2000 15:10:47 -0500 >Received: from angus.mystery.com ([EMAIL PROTECTED] [198.202.235.1]) > by leslie.mystery.com (8.11.1/8.11.0) with ESMTP id eB8K68M16048; > Fri, 8 Dec 2000 15:06:08 -0500 >Received: (from majordomo@localhost) > by angus.mystery.com (8.11.1/8.11.1) id eB8IixY14278 > for crsenglish-outgoing; Fri, 8 Dec 2000 13:44:59 -0500 >Received: from mailhost1.dircon.co.uk (mailhost1.dircon.co.uk [194.112.32.65]) > by angus.mystery.com (8.11.1/8.11.1) with ESMTP id eB8Iit714275 > for <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; Fri, 8 Dec 2000 13:44:55 -0500 >Received: from london_srv.iwpr.net (iwpr.dircon.co.uk [194.112.45.32]) > by mailhost1.dircon.co.uk (8.9.3/8.9.3) with ESMTP id SAA86278 > for <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; Fri, 8 Dec 2000 18:44:51 GMT >Received: by LONDON_SRV with Internet Mail Service (5.5.2448.0) > id <W0QXFSZB>; Fri, 8 Dec 2000 18:48:07 -0000 >Message-ID: <218581ACEC23D31184CD0008C7333E7F3F33E3@LONDON_SRV> >From: Institute for War & Peace Reporting <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >To: Institute for War & Peace Reporting <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >Subject: WELCOME TO IWPR'S CAUCASUS REPORTING SERVICE, NO. 61 >Date: Fri, 8 Dec 2000 18:48:05 -0000 >MIME-Version: 1.0 >X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2448.0) >Content-Type: text/plain >Sender: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >Precedence: bulk >Reply-To: Institute for War & Peace Reporting <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >X-Loop: Majordomo @ NSTS > > > >WELCOME TO IWPR'S CAUCASUS REPORTING SERVICE, NO. 61, December 8, 2000 > >ARMENIAN GHOSTS HAUNT ISTANBUL Relations between Turkey and Armenia take a >turn for the worse as European leaders officially recognise the disputed >genocide of 1.5 million Armenians in 1915. By Ara Tadevosian in Yerevan > >GUNMEN RAID GANTAMIROV'S HOME Sentenced to death by the outlawed rebel >government and locked in conflict with the Russian high command, Bislan >Gantamirov has good reason to be paranoid. By Dmitri Nepomnyaschy in Nazran > >TUG OF WAR Russia and America play a tense game of political chess in the >South Caucasus. By Susanna Petrosian in Yerevan > >THE LOST LAND OF SHAPSUGIA A new Russian law on "ethnic minorities" has >given the Shapsug people fresh hope of reclaiming their historical homeland. >By Zarina Kanukova in Nalchik > >********** VISIT IWPR ON-LINE: www.iwpr.net ************** > >ARMENIAN GHOSTS HAUNT ISTANBUL > >Relations between Turkey and Armenia take a turn for the worse as European >leaders officially recognise the disputed genocide of 1.5 million Armenians >in 1915 > >By Ara Tadevosian in Yerevan > >Unable to find a job in his native Yerevan, 35-year-old Artur Serobyan left >Armenia for Istanbul, together with his wife and four children. There he >found work as a translator and, for two years, "lived in complete harmony >with [his] Turkish neighbours". > >"But then," Serobyan told the Aikakan Zhamanak newspaper in Yerevan, >"everything changed. It was immediately after the US Congress began to >discuss the question of recognising the 1915 genocide. No one actually said >anything to me, but it soon became clear that I couldn't work there any >more. > >"In the end," he went on, "the Turkish police gave me 24 hours to leave the >country. I had no choice but to return to Armenia." > >Moves by the international community to officially recognise the massacre of >1.5 million Armenians by Ottoman troops in 1915 have sparked a bitter war of >words between Ankara and Yerevan. > >Many observers now fear that Turkey will retaliate by strengthening its >economic sanctions against the former Soviet republic (the Turkish >authorities closed the border with Armenia in 1991 as a gesture of support >for Azerbaijan in the Nagorny Karabakh conflict). > >These concerns come in sharp contrast to the initial euphoria with which >Armenians greeted October's debate in Congress. And, although President Bill >Clinton later postponed a final decision on the grounds that it could "harm >the interests of American security in the Near East," European leaders were >quick to take up the cause. > >On November 8, the French Senate adopted a resolution recognising the >disputed genocide by 164 votes to 40. Two days later, the head of the >Armenian Church, Garegin the Second, visited Pope John Paul II in the >Vatican to sign a communique which stated, "The genocide of the Armenians >was the prologue for many of the atrocities which have been committed over >the past century". > >On November 15, the European Parliament demanded that Turkey enter into a >dialogue with Armenia with a view to restoring diplomatic ties and >abandoning its economic blockade. It also called on Turkey to publicly admit >the 1915 genocide. Days later, the Italian government voted in favour of a >similar resolution. > >Turkey - which has consistently denied that the genocide ever took place - >promptly launched a political offensive against Armenia. > >Hussein Dirioz, a spokesman for the Turkish foreign ministry, accused >Armenian president Robert Kocharian of whipping up the international outcry, >adding, "This kind of politics will do nothing to establish peace and >stability in the region." > >Kocharian countered the Turkish diplomat's attack in an interview on >Armenian TV: "The international debate is merely a step aimed at normalising >Turkish-Armenian relations. It is impossible to envisage a stable foundation >for these relations without this question being resolved." > >However, the president's political rivals in Yerevan have been quick to >criticise Kocharian's handling of the situation. Alexander Arzumanian, >former foreign minister and head of the Armenian National Movement, said, >"Kocharian's actions mean that the likelihood of a rapprochement between >Armenia and Turkey has become even more remote. Furthermore, it will be >years before the consequences of his latest campaign are forgotten." > >But Kocharian remains adamant. "In the past, Armenia was careful to avoid >raising the genocide issue - and got nothing for its trouble," he said. "We >still have no diplomatic relations and Turkey continues to impose its trade >embargo. In fact, Turkey has simply left us with no alternative." > >Many Armenian diplomats are convinced that international pressure will >eventually force Turkey to change its position. Vardan Oskanian, head of the >Armenian foreign ministry, told IWPR, "Recently, it has become clear that >the representatives of the Turkish intelligentsia and the Turkish media have >adopted a fairly bold stance over the genocide question, taking part in a >number of international conferences and seminars on the subject. > >"I believe that they are acting at the behest of the Turkish authorities who >are eager to gauge the reaction of the international community." > >The growing tension between the two countries has even cast a shadow over >the sporting world. Last week, the French footballer Yuri Djorkaeff -- who >makes no secret of his Armenian origins and his outspoken views on the >genocide question - announced that he would not be taking part in a friendly >match between Turkey and Armenia in Istanbul. > >He privately told fellow player Emmanuel Petit that he had refused the >invitation for political reasons - namely that he had received anonymous >death threats from unnamed Turkish extremists. > >Other members of the vast Armenian diaspora have been taking an active part >in the international debate. Last week, Karo Armenian, head of the Armenian >National Committee of America, stated, "The diaspora is delighted that the >Armenian leadership has chosen to throw back the curtains on the issue of >the 1915 genocide." > >Meanwhile, Russia's Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Independent Newspaper) recently >published an open letter entitled, "An appeal to the people of Western >Armenia [the disputed territory in north-eastern Turkey] to sanction a >government in exile". The authors of the letter called on Armenians living >in Turkey to "demand compensation for material, moral and territorial losses >and the right for the descendants of the western Armenians to return to >their historical homeland." > >Ara Tadevosian is director of Mediamax, an independent news agency based in >Yerevan > > >GUNMEN RAID GANTAMIROV'S HOME > >Sentenced to death by the outlawed rebel government and locked in conflict >with the Russian high command, Bislan Gantamirov has good reason to be >paranoid > >By Dmitri Nepomnyaschy in Nazran > >Grozny mayor Bislan Gantamirov is claiming that a force of 120 gunmen who >staged a dawn raid on his home last week were in fact Russian commandos >disguised as Chechen fighters. > >The Russian defence ministry has dismissed the accusation as "crazy and >absurd" adding that "it has no relation to reality and is merely an exercise >in disinformation". > >But the maverick mayor, who is also deputy head of the pro-Russian civilian >administration in Chechnya, insists that the kidnap attempt was planned and >carried out by the federal high command. > >Gantamirov was away from his home in the village of Gekhi, near Urus-Martan, >when the raiders struck on the morning of December 5. They outflanked a >Russian military checkpoint on the road into the settlement before making >their way to Gantamirov's residence. > >Finding their target absent, the raiders proceeded to ransack the house, _______________________________________________________ KOMINFORM P.O. Box 66 00841 Helsinki - Finland +358-40-7177941, fax +358-9-7591081 e-mail [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.kominf.pp.fi _______________________________________________________ Kominform list for general information. Subscribe/unsubscribe messages to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Anti-Imperialism list for geopolitics. Subscribe/unsubscribe messages: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] _______________________________________________________