>Date: Sat, 9 Dec 2000 02:49:03 EST
>Subject: Fwd: WELCOME TO IWPR'S CAUCASUS REPORTING SERVICE, NO. 61
>
>In a message dated 08/12/00 15:11:42 Eastern Standard Time, [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>writes:
>
><< TUG OF WAR
>
> Russia and America play a tense game of political chess in the South
> Caucasus
>
> By Susanna Petrosian in Yerevan
>
> The South Caucasus has been described as the "last great theatre of the Cold
> War" with both Russia and America vying for the affections of the three
> former Soviet republics.
>
> But here the goal is not ideological victory but control over the oil and
> gas pipelines between the Caspian Sea and the West. And, to complicate
> matters still further, the newly independent states are proving they have
> minds of their own.
>
> Russia's Blue Stream ("Goluboy Potok") project -- a planned gas pipeline
> under the Black Sea between Russia and Turkey -- marks the latest attempt to
> the break the deadlock. The move is calculated to counterbalance the effects
> of a US-funded pipeline being built to transport Caspian oil through Georgia
> and into Turkey.
>
> Already ratified by the Russian and Turkish parliaments, Blue Stream could
> supply Turkey with more than 16 billion cubic metres of Russian gas every
> year. By 2005, nearly 60 per cent of Turkey's gas would be imported from
> Russia.
>
> The Russians make no secret of their ambitions. Rem Vyakhirev, chairman of
> Gazprom, comments, "Apart from the economic sense of the plan, it's vital
> for Russia to maintain geo-political influence in the region".
>
> The United States, on the other hand, has turned its attention to
> Turkmenistan in a bid to offer Turkey an alternative to Russian gas. Here
> plans are afoot to transport Turkmen gas across the Caspian, through
> Azerbaijan and into Turkey. The cost of the pipeline has been estimated at
> $2.5 billion.
>
> Azerbaijan, which will also use the facility to transport its own gas
> supplies, is set to begin construction of the pipeline from the Shakh-Deniz
> deposit by the end of this year.
>
> But the project has run into troubled waters. Turkmenistan is unhappy with
> the role being played by Azerbaijan in the project and is currently
> reviewing the possibility of selling gas to Russia and Iran.
>
> Alexander Iskandarian, director of the Centre for Caucasian Research in
> Moscow, says the situation - compounded with Azerbaijan's intention to
> export gas to Turkey independently - could eventually scupper the
> Trans-Caspian initiative.
>
> The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline consortium is making last-ditch attempts to
> defuse the crisis. Vice president Kevin Graham said that, if the Turkmen
> leadership refused to accept the terms of the agreement, Ankara would reject
> the Shakh-Deniz proposal in favour of Blue Stream.
>
> Meanwhile, Russia continues to pursue an aggressive foreign policy in the
> South Caucasus. Earlier this year, for example, at the insistence of the
> World Bank, Armenia excluded the Russian company Itera from an international
> tender to privatise the power supply network. Russia duly responded by
> cutting off its gas supplies to Armenia.
>
> As a result, the Armenian government decided to privatise the network in two
> stages - precluding the possibility of any one company monopolising the
> distribution network. The leadership in Yerevan was no doubt prompted by the
> bitter struggle then taking place between Itera and its American rival, AES
> Silk Road.
>
> According to David Petrosian, an analyst at the Noyan Tapan news agency, a
> subsequent law passed by the Armenian government which imposes tight
> controls on potential investors should "cool down" Silk Road's interests in
> the region.
>
> In Georgia at least, Itera has already emerged victorious over the American
> consortium. Georgia's debt to Itera is nearing $80 million and, earlier this
> year, Silk Road refused an invitation to take part in the privatisation of
> Tbilgaz -- a move which most analysts interpret as a recognition of Itera's
> preeminence in the region.
>
> At the same time, RAUES, the Russian electric power conglomerate, has
> stepped up its activities in the South Caucasus. RAUES has announced plans
> to invest around $800,000 in AO Pontoell, a consortium founded by energy
> companies from Russia, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
>
> Ultimately, the West has little hope of breaking Russia's influence over the
> Caucasus region. Mkrtich Zardarian, senior expert at the Armenian Centre for
> National and Strategic Research, points out that US plans for the export of
> oil and gas without the participation of Russia and Iran are not only
> non-productive - they are also almost impossible to realise.
>
> Susanna Petrosian is a correspondent for the Noyan Tapan news agency in
> Yerevan
> >>
>
>
>
>
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>From: Institute for War & Peace Reporting <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>To: Institute for War & Peace Reporting <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>Subject: WELCOME TO IWPR'S CAUCASUS REPORTING SERVICE, NO. 61
>Date: Fri, 8 Dec 2000 18:48:05 -0000
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>
>WELCOME TO IWPR'S CAUCASUS REPORTING SERVICE, NO. 61, December 8, 2000
>
>ARMENIAN GHOSTS HAUNT ISTANBUL Relations between Turkey and Armenia take a
>turn for the worse as European leaders officially recognise the disputed
>genocide of 1.5 million Armenians in 1915. By Ara Tadevosian in Yerevan
>
>GUNMEN RAID GANTAMIROV'S HOME Sentenced to death by the outlawed rebel
>government and locked in conflict with the Russian high command, Bislan
>Gantamirov has good reason to be paranoid. By Dmitri Nepomnyaschy in Nazran
>
>TUG OF WAR Russia and America play a tense game of political chess in the
>South Caucasus. By Susanna Petrosian in Yerevan
>
>THE LOST LAND OF SHAPSUGIA A new Russian law on "ethnic minorities" has
>given the Shapsug people fresh hope of reclaiming their historical homeland.
>By Zarina Kanukova in Nalchik
>
>********** VISIT IWPR ON-LINE: www.iwpr.net **************
>
>ARMENIAN GHOSTS HAUNT ISTANBUL
>
>Relations between Turkey and Armenia take a turn for the worse as European
>leaders officially recognise the disputed genocide of 1.5 million Armenians
>in 1915
>
>By Ara Tadevosian in Yerevan
>
>Unable to find a job in his native Yerevan, 35-year-old Artur Serobyan left
>Armenia for Istanbul, together with his wife and four children. There he
>found work as a translator and, for two years, "lived in complete harmony
>with [his] Turkish neighbours".
>
>"But then," Serobyan told the Aikakan Zhamanak newspaper in Yerevan,
>"everything changed. It was immediately after the US Congress began to
>discuss the question of recognising the 1915 genocide. No one actually said
>anything to me, but it soon became clear that I couldn't work there any
>more.
>
>"In the end," he went on, "the Turkish police gave me 24 hours to leave the
>country. I had no choice but to return to Armenia."
>
>Moves by the international community to officially recognise the massacre of
>1.5 million Armenians by Ottoman troops in 1915 have sparked a bitter war of
>words between Ankara and Yerevan.
>
>Many observers now fear that Turkey will retaliate by strengthening its
>economic sanctions against the former Soviet republic (the Turkish
>authorities closed the border with Armenia in 1991 as a gesture of support
>for Azerbaijan in the Nagorny Karabakh conflict).
>
>These concerns come in sharp contrast to the initial euphoria with which
>Armenians greeted October's debate in Congress. And, although President Bill
>Clinton later postponed a final decision on the grounds that it could "harm
>the interests of American security in the Near East," European leaders were
>quick to take up the cause.
>
>On November 8, the French Senate adopted a resolution recognising the
>disputed genocide by 164 votes to 40. Two days later, the head of the
>Armenian Church, Garegin the Second, visited Pope John Paul II in the
>Vatican to sign a communique which stated, "The genocide of the Armenians
>was the prologue for many of the atrocities which have been committed over
>the past century".
>
>On November 15, the European Parliament demanded that Turkey enter into a
>dialogue with Armenia with a view to restoring diplomatic ties and
>abandoning its economic blockade. It also called on Turkey to publicly admit
>the 1915 genocide. Days later, the Italian government voted in favour of a
>similar resolution.
>
>Turkey - which has consistently denied that the genocide ever took place -
>promptly launched a political offensive against Armenia.
>
>Hussein Dirioz, a spokesman for the Turkish foreign ministry, accused
>Armenian president Robert Kocharian of whipping up the international outcry,
>adding, "This kind of politics will do nothing to establish peace and
>stability in the region."
>
>Kocharian countered the Turkish diplomat's attack in an interview on
>Armenian TV: "The international debate is merely a step aimed at normalising
>Turkish-Armenian relations. It is impossible to envisage a stable foundation
>for these relations without this question being resolved."
>
>However, the president's political rivals in Yerevan have been quick to
>criticise Kocharian's handling of the situation. Alexander Arzumanian,
>former foreign minister and head of the Armenian National Movement, said,
>"Kocharian's actions mean that the likelihood of a rapprochement between
>Armenia and Turkey has become even more remote. Furthermore, it will be
>years before the consequences of his latest campaign are forgotten."
>
>But Kocharian remains adamant. "In the past, Armenia was careful to avoid
>raising the genocide issue - and got nothing for its trouble," he said. "We
>still have no diplomatic relations and Turkey continues to impose its trade
>embargo. In fact, Turkey has simply left us with no alternative."
>
>Many Armenian diplomats are convinced that international pressure will
>eventually force Turkey to change its position. Vardan Oskanian, head of the
>Armenian foreign ministry, told IWPR, "Recently, it has become clear that
>the representatives of the Turkish intelligentsia and the Turkish media have
>adopted a fairly bold stance over the genocide question, taking part in a
>number of international conferences and seminars on the subject.
>
>"I believe that they are acting at the behest of the Turkish authorities who
>are eager to gauge the reaction of the international community."
>
>The growing tension between the two countries has even cast a shadow over
>the sporting world. Last week, the French footballer Yuri Djorkaeff -- who
>makes no secret of his Armenian origins and his outspoken views on the
>genocide question - announced that he would not be taking part in a friendly
>match between Turkey and Armenia in Istanbul.
>
>He privately told fellow player Emmanuel Petit that he had refused the
>invitation for political reasons - namely that he had received anonymous
>death threats from unnamed Turkish extremists.
>
>Other members of the vast Armenian diaspora have been taking an active part
>in the international debate. Last week, Karo Armenian, head of the Armenian
>National Committee of America, stated, "The diaspora is delighted that the
>Armenian leadership has chosen to throw back the curtains on the issue of
>the 1915 genocide."
>
>Meanwhile, Russia's Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Independent Newspaper) recently
>published an open letter entitled, "An appeal to the people of Western
>Armenia [the disputed territory in north-eastern Turkey] to sanction a
>government in exile". The authors of the letter called on Armenians living
>in Turkey to "demand compensation for material, moral and territorial losses
>and the right for the descendants of the western Armenians to return to
>their historical homeland."
>
>Ara Tadevosian is director of Mediamax, an independent news agency based in
>Yerevan
>
>
>GUNMEN RAID GANTAMIROV'S HOME
>
>Sentenced to death by the outlawed rebel government and locked in conflict
>with the Russian high command, Bislan Gantamirov has good reason to be
>paranoid
>
>By Dmitri Nepomnyaschy in Nazran
>
>Grozny mayor Bislan Gantamirov is claiming that a force of 120 gunmen who
>staged a dawn raid on his home last week were in fact Russian commandos
>disguised as Chechen fighters.
>
>The Russian defence ministry has dismissed the accusation as "crazy and
>absurd" adding that "it has no relation to reality and is merely an exercise
>in disinformation".
>
>But the maverick mayor, who is also deputy head of the pro-Russian civilian
>administration in Chechnya, insists that the kidnap attempt was planned and
>carried out by the federal high command.
>
>Gantamirov was away from his home in the village of Gekhi, near Urus-Martan,
>when the raiders struck on the morning of December 5. They outflanked a
>Russian military checkpoint on the road into the settlement before making
>their way to Gantamirov's residence.
>
>Finding their target absent, the raiders proceeded to ransack the house,
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