From: "Jari-Pekka Raitamaa" Subject: [luokkataistelu] Revolutionary crisis rocks Argentina Frontlines Exclusive Revolutionary crisis rocks Argentina By Sebastian Robles With Correspondents at the Frontlines This post contains a main article and three more recent updates. Argentina is in economic default, its banking system shut off, stricken with massive bankruptcies. Unemployment has risen to 2.5 million (22%). This figure does not include the 1.2 million unemployed (11% of the population) in the "Black Economy" - informal economic activities. Earlier this week, the Argentinean government fell twice in 48 hours. First, the massive and spontaneous protests, massive looting of Super- Markets in twenty cities in ten different provinces, including the country's capital, forced the entire cabinet to resign. Then the President himself resigned when the opposition Peronists refused to join a National Unity government. Hours before de la Rua's resignation, Washington told him he was on his own. Around a week ago, the IMF refused to give Argentina the $1.3 billion scheduled for disbursement. No money, no bailout or renegotiations, no liquidity for the economy, despite the fact that de la Rua was the first Latin American president to commit troops to the peace force in Afghanistan (which also produced indignation among the people) and that he was inclined to accept or at least negotiate with the US to erect American military bases in northeastern Argentina on the borders of Brazil and Paraguay. According to the US, this is a pro-Bin Laden enclave because there are numerous Arab residents in the area. Despite ferocious police repression, there have only been 2000 people arrested all over the country, 350 in Buenos Aires. Around 30 people were killed and over 900 wounded on Thursday, December 20. In working class neighborhoods, people organized self-defense committees, cut off access roads to their areas of control and erected barricades. Tens of thousands are marching in downtown areas of the country's major cities. Immediate Background The now ex-President, Fernando de la Rua, was from the traditionally liberal Radical Party. He was elected two years ago in coalition with some center-left politicians and in alliance with a segment of the Peronist Party. The election gave the Radicals some relative mass support once again. But the government continued the previous Peronist government of Carlos Menem's policies of shock, privatization and cuts in government spending. Widespread discontent with these policies led two ministers of the economy to resign within 72 hours of each other last year. The buck finally stopped with Domingo Cavallo, who had, ironically, also served as Menem's minister of the economy. This government imposed the dollarization of the economy, which failed. The stock market was soon in ruins. Unemployment rose, services were cut. Over 40% of public employees were fired and the wages of those remaining were cut twice in the last year, the last one announced last week (20% once, 20% the second time). Wages for pensioners and retirees were also drastically cut. Many provincial governments owe their employees 4-7 months back wages. A year ago, the Vice-President Carlos Alvarez - a dissident Peronist allied with the Radicals - resigned when de la Rua insisted on retaining two members of his cabinet who had been implicated in a congressional bribery scandal. No replacement had been found, further souring the pickle of the Argentinean ruling class when de la Rua quit. Then came a massive general strike and more than 300 other labor actions since March. In October, the government's alliance lost the elections to the Peronists - formerly a populist party, now a fragmented confederation of right wing, conservative and center right factions , who recovered control of both the House and the Senate. The Peronists also control the majority of the governors' mansions. But the Peronists were not the real winners of that election. More than 25% of the Argentineans who went to the polls to vote that day either did not mark any candidate or spoiled their ballots in protest. The fragmented left (including the Communist Party and four Trotskyist parties) got over 1 million votes. Most of the million were cast for the Trotskyists, scattered throughout four different small parties leftover from splits in the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), arguably the largest Trotskyist party the world has ever seen. The MAS, which virtually became THE left in the eary 80s, exploded in different factions when they shifted their traditional revolutionary policies. One of these fragments only ran candidates in Buenos Aires and got 20% of the vote, electing two Congressmen. The Humanist Party (who some consider a left party) also had a good election, with more than 240,000 votes nationwide. Social Explosion Argentina will officially default on its foreign debt in January, but banks are already running out of money. The Central Bank can no longer guarantee the value of the money. Many Argentineans were already withdrawing their savings accounts for fear of losing them in the looming default. The Argentine government responded by freezing bank deposits and restricting withdrawal or transfer of funds to $250 a week, leaving citizens to get by as best they could on their credit card transactions at a cost as high as 30 cents on the dollar. In this situation, a couple of days ago, with Christmas fast approaching, desperate people began to loot some supermarkets, particularly in the provinces, which are poorer and have a much higher unemployment rate. De la Rua denounced the looting as the work of "subversives" and "terrorists." As he concluded his speech, spontaneous demonstrations erupted on the streets in every major city, including the capital. Every Thursday, like clockwork, in front of the Presidential Palace in Downtown Buenos Aires, a demonstration is held in memory of the more than 20,000 Argentinean activists, intellectuals, artists, and writers "disappeared" by the military dictatorship during la Guerra Sucia (or "Dirty War"). On Thursday, December 20, more than 10,000 transformed this demonstration into one demanding the government's resignation. One eyewitness wrote about the initial moments of the protest: "I was - like every Thursday for the last 10 years or so - at the Madres de la Plaza de Mayo´s rally for the disappeared. While I think Madres have gone nuts (their leader said she was happy on September 11) and that they are trying to form an alternative extreme left wing organization, they are the only ones preserving the memory of the "dirty war"... in any case, I was there with several hundred others in Plaza de Mayo when thousands of people started to show up ... at the beginning I could not believe that so many people would be attending the Madres event ... but they weren't ... they were there to demand that De La Rua resign ... the Madres, who are not stupid and had a sound system and banners - the only ones in the entire park - started to organize the people, gave speeches. The Madres formed protective lines separating the people from the mounted police ... and when the whole thing went to hell, they were the ones who stood their ground (after all they stood their ground against the military dictatorship) and gave people some sense of direction... but they were the leadership by default, not design ..." Tens of thousands more demonstrated Buenos Aires' neighborhoods, and in every City in the country. Everywhere the demonstrators clashed with the police. "In my neighborhood, yesterday, we all got together after the President´s speech," remembers Hugo B., a teacher. "No one organized it. We just walked out of our houses to scream at each other about what a son of a bitch he is. People were looting supermarkets because they are hungry ... and he called them subversives and terrorists ... I don't even know who was the first one who proposed to march to the Plaza del Mayo ... soon we were about 1,000 people marching down the streets ... Every time we reached another neighborhood, more people would join us, not individually, but in large groups ... half of the people or more were young, most were shirtless ... when we were on Entre Rios avenue I looked back and I could not see the end of the demonstration, so many people were there ... the only flag we had was a huge Argentinean flag we picked up from a secondary school's entrance ..." Committees are being organized in working class neighborhoods and starting to link which each other on a more or less regional basis. This tradition harks back to the revolutionary struggles of the 70s. While still in its infancy, this could develop into a truly genuine expression of the mass movement, since the disintegration of industry due to the crisis limits the development of a channel exclusively based in the workplaces. The labor bureaucracy also serves as a certain brake on the development of factory committees as well. BG, a union activist in the Northern suburban area of the Capital wrote that, "We still remember the last general strike organized by the unions. It was great and showed that the rank and file wanted to fight and the success and participation was incredible. But the labor leaders did not follow up ... they just thought of it as a de-compression valve." There are now neighborhoods firmly in the hands of demonstrators. Dozens of gun shops and neighborhood police stations have been looted for weapons. In the provinces, reports of assaults of local police stations abound. The army reported that thousands of rank and file soldiers - who are allowed to return home on weekends and most nights to save money during the economic crisis - did not return to their garrisons. Constitutional Crisis The resignation of the President opened up a constitutional crisis. Without a Vice-President (who, again, resigned a year ago), the House and the Senate will meet hold a joint meeting on Saturday to elect a new President. The proposed new President, Rodriguez Saa, is a conservative Peronist who is the present governor of the province of San Luis. Saa belongs to an oligarchic clan that has controlled San Luis for the last 20 years. (See Updates Below) The Provisional President of the Senate, Ramon Puerta, assumed the post of interim President on Friday. He told the media: "I will be a President for 48 hours or for two years, never mind for 90 days." Puerta is a Peronist of one of the most right wing, pro-imperialist wings of the party - now fragmented in at least 10 warring factions. Puerta is also a member of the so-called oligarchy. A landlordist, owner of massive yerba mate plantations in Misiones and other semi- rural industrial concerns and lots of real estate. If Puerta can command the support of the various Peronist factions, he may be Washington's man. Otherwise, Bush may very well negotiate with other factions of the Peronist Party or with the now-evident block of ultraconservatives and Peronists that are talking to high- ranking Army officers). But the coup d'etat strategy is a risky proposition. The Argentinean Armed Forces have a shadow of their former social support and logistical strength. They are widely despised by a majority of the population. People remember the Dirty War. But there are other right wing sectors of the Armed Forces, those who retired immediately after the advent of the new "democratic process." They have staged numerous failed attempts against democratic governments of the last two decades. In the late 80s, this sector formed political parties that elected people to Congress and even a couple of governors who later informally joined the Peronists. They may very well be a reserve option to change the political regime if need be. The Left Thousands of former left wing activists who entered a protracted crisis in the 90s are now re-activated. But these activists are not responding to those organizations, but rather intervening in events on their own, without leadership. These are the most visible political forces of the left: Communist Party: split into at least three factions, two of them public operating of their own accord. They lost most of their influence in the 80s because the rise of the MAS. MAS (Trotskyist): Lost most of its active members and its huge periphery of the 80s in the 90s. It is now reduced to less than 500 members divided in factions. In the last election, they formed a block with the Workers' Party, another Trotskyist party. MST: A more moderate faction of the MAS. It has about 1,000 active members. In the last election, they preserved their historical alliance with the remnants of the CP - Izquierda Unida. The Coalition elected a House member. PTS: Another split from the MAS. They have about 500 members, very sectarian, with some influence among students. They have the best publishing house of all the Trotskyists. It is a quasi cult. Patria Libre: A Stalinist/Castroist current, traditionally very weak, reinforced lately due to the crisis in the CP. Maybe 300 active members. Revolutionary Communist Party / Party of the People and Labor: In the 1970s, they used to have up to 20,000 members, but the rise of Trotskyism condemned them to two decades of irrelevance. After the MAS exploded, the RCP/PPL grew, particularly in extremely poor areas, some areas of the working class, particularly in the provinces. They are today the strongest left tendency in the unions and among all other left organizations. Probably 2,000 active members but they also command a wide array of sympathizing groups. There are at least another 10-12 Trotskyist groups with memberships ranging from a couple dozen to about 100 or so active members. There are also half a dozen of proto-guerrilla groups, all of them very small. For now. While there is definitely an uprising in progress, its leadership has yet to materialize. The main slogan now is "Que se vayan todos!" (All Must Go!) The uprising is a massive and widespread, but it is mostly spontaneous. This may progress as time goes by. So far, judging from their leaflets and other materials, none of these left organizations saw the writing on the wall. While they all celebrated the electoral results of last October, they did not draw all of the conclusions from it or the last two years of political, social and economic events. For example, not one of them pointed out that the government should resign AND NEW GENERAL ELECTIONS SHOULD BE CALLED after its defeat last October. Nor did they raise a series of demands to confront the crisis. The left in Argentina, in answering their own crisis of the 90s (that they never fully understood as te decade of capitalist counter- offensive worldwide), raise mostly a combination of very reformist slogans tinted with very ultra-left rhetoric. None of these organizations were able to advance the events of this week even though all the signals had been there at least since the October elections. Revolutionary crisis without a revolutionary situation It is obvious that, save one, all the conditions that define a revolutionary situation exist today in Argentina: economic crisis, division of the ruling class, mass upheavals, the inability of those on the top to continue governing and those under them refusing to continue to be governed. The missing condition is the existence of a Workers or Socialist party enjoying mass support. That is why we can talk about a "revolutionary crisis" without a revolutionary situation. Given the present circumstances, the situation will continue to deteriorate in the coming months. The remaining political capital of the Peronists will be spent trying to stabilize the country. Violence and repression are likely to continue. The crisis will deepen with a desperate working class and popular sectors continuing to realize, as they do today, that they have nothing to lose by revolting. The effects of the situation there will have enormous repercussions in Latin America since Argentina, despite the crisis, is still considered the third largest economy in Latin America (behind Brazil and Mexico), and also because, more than Brazil or even Mexico, Argentinean politics have had a more continental influence historically. Common Sense in Action The conventional wisdom among ruling class experts is that no one with political aspirations will accept the Argentinean presidency during a social, political and economic catastrophe. Puerta counts on the support of a number of the internal factions of Peronism and that of former President Carlos Menem. Menem also announced few weeks back that he would like to be President once again. There are strong sentiments in layers of the population that "everyone must go." This puts pressure on the government to hold elections in 90 days or less. But Menem and others in the Peronist movement would like to see a President named for the next two years, for, among other reasons, because Menem served two terms as President and cannot serve a third term before another President serves at least one complete term. If elections are called in 90 days, Menem could be disqualified as a candidate if the elections are called just to replace De la Rua. There are many echoes for a call for a General - not only Presidential - elections and a Constituent Assembly, but no group or political party is presently pushing for that position. The Mass Movement Demonstrations continued on Friday, but somewhat receded in some cities to bury those killed yesterday and to regroup and because the announcement of De La Rua´s resignation. Testimony from a number of participants shows that many feel they won a battle by forcing the resignation of the cabinet and De La Rua. That perception is building up confidence in many layers of society. All day Friday, there were meetings and assemblies in neighborhoods across the country, some with as many as 2,000 participants, some with only a few dozen in attendance. Improvised public meetings with free for all speakers from all tendencies and unaffiliated activists are being held on street corners in downtown Buenos Aires and in every major city. Leaflets are starting to circulate calling for a mass demonstration on Christmas Day, others call for a mass demo on Monday. It is very possible that Christmas will be marked by new protests, in a place where Christmas and New Year celebrations are usually calm. CTA and other labor groups called a general strike. Transportation workers are driving their vehicles to allow people to cross the cities. But activists are discussing whether or not a general strike, particularly if it is declared for an indefinite period of time, would not be a maneuver by the Peronists to cool down the situation to allow their party to take the Presidency. Another proposal made in factories and by left activists is to call for the lately abandoned active strikes. Active strikes mean workers would go to work and at 10 AM, they would organize assemblies and meetings and then march to a central meeting place, usually in parks in front of government houses. "We have had more than 200 general strikes since the 1930s," wrote PA, a union activist who is formally a member of the MST in a food factory, "but the labor leaders, at different times, used that weapon for different purposes. In the 1970s, it was an active weapon to organize the workers in each factory. In the 1980s, it was just to let off steam and continue with the status quo. Of course, sometimes the labor bureaucrats planned something and the rank and file went beyond their desires ... but that is more difficult." There are many neighborhoods completely in the hands of the locals and at least one of the main access bridges to the capitol was in the hands of demonstrators this morning. Roads and routes across the country have been cut and demonstrators are there, burning tires and setting up barricades. There is no question that the issue of factory sit-downs to protect the factories from being dismantled (something that workers in Villa Constitution discussed yesterday in their general assembly after the company announced its bankruptcy); the taking over the banks and financial institutions (to protect wages and deposits, the money in the vaults) by their workers and the occupation of food industries and supermarkets by elected committees of neighborhoods and workers (to organize the distribution according to the needs of workers and stop the looting)are not simply propagandistic slogans, but something that must be done in order for the working class to survive. What's Up with the Cops? There are discrepancies about the number of people killed that ranges from 23 to 40. One of the questions circulating is why the police were absent from the province surrounding the capital for the last two days, accounting for the relatively low casualty rate. It is speculated that Antonio Francisco Cafiero, the Peronist governor, ordered the police to not repress those attacking supermarkets and businesses to precipitate the crisis of the Radical Party government. The new appointed President, a Peronist as Cafiero, warned him that we could order the Federalization of the Provincial police if he did not mobilize it immediately to impose "law and order." Obviously, the first shot of the electoral process: Cafiero is one of the potential candidates for the Presidency, but is opposed by Menem, Puerta and others. Meanwhile, back to the Capital: Another participant in Plaza de Mayo wrote that: "The Federal Police were out in force. But I noticed something peculiar. They were not interested in defeating the demonstrators, just in keeping a safe ground for them around the public buildings. They erected barricades, used water cannons and when they felt overwhelmed by the crowds they launched the cavalry and shot live ammunition ... and then they retreated back to their positions around the buildings ... but it was a defensive war, not an offensive one. Some of the cops looked pretty scared to me ... in addition, I saw only few older and more experienced cops among those repressing ... most of them were pretty young..." Emergency Measures "We need a Chavez here...," said a young demonstrator at the Obelisco, one of the main public monuments in Buenos Aires where thousands of demonstrators fought with the police for over 10 hours and destroyed the local McDonald and Citibank and numerous other shops. He is referring to left populist President of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez. Others talked of the first period of Peronism in the mid-40s. What this means is that many will readily accept a someone who will enact a number of emergency measures - non-payment of the foreign debt, nationalization of the food and bank industries, massive distribution of food and the creation of even provisory sources of jobs and income. But it is difficult to imagine such a leader emerging from the Peronist, the Radical Party or their allies, so much are these organizations in the pockets of US imperialism and the IMF. Update: December 21, 2001 Today, the Peronist majority in both chambers of Congress agreed on the game plan for tomorrow's Legislative Assembly: 1. Elect Governor Saa President for 60 days. 2. Vote on their proposal for new elections for President and Vice President that will be held on Sunday, March 3 3. Establish that the electoral system for this particular election be shifted to "Single Transferable Voting" system or the "Sistema de Lemas." Through this system parties present Lemas (name of the party) followed by a list of several candidates of the same party for the same position (as many as they need or want). Then, once the winner in each lema is determined by simple plurality of votes, all the other votes for other candidates of the same party are added to the winner and then the result is compared to the results on all other winners from each party. This system has never been used in Argentina before, though it was employed in neighboring Uruguay for decades, before being dropped for being "confusing." The selection of this voting system indicates that the Peronists will only agree to take over the Executive and call elections. They want to decide their internal differences through a general election rather than a primary, as is the custom in Argentina. This will partially offset the mobilizing character of the apparatus that is required to win a primary and will give more power to money and publicity. 4. The Legislative Assembly has also to decide whether this election will be to elect a formula to complete the 2-year period left from De la Rua's term or if they wish to make this a complete new term (improbable). De la Rua, before leaving the Government House, lifted the State of Siege. But Puerta, the interim President, re-imposed it, but just for the Province of Buenos Aires, where looting of supermarkets and businesses continued today. According to the local electronic media, over a dozen supermarkets were assaulted on Friday. At least two judges ordered De La Rua and his former Minister of Interior not to leave the country and announced their intention to investigate the responsibility of both in the killings and violence of the last few days. This followed the announcement that Cavallo, De la Rua's Minister of Economy left the country in a presidential aircraft immediately after resigning on Thursday. He did so despite a court order requiring him to request permission before leaving the capital. The outstanding court order was related to the investigation of arms trafficking to Croatia and Ecuador underway for the last year or so. Menem was also indicted and cleared of the same charges. Friday's demonstrations were much smaller in the Capital. The MST, the CP and their electoral block organized a small demo. So did another dozen or so different left and Peronist groups. But the demands, for the most part, did not exceed the call for a moratorium and/or cancellation of the foreign debt. Both the PTP/RCP and different groups of the Peronist Party were actively intervening in neighborhood assemblies. The Peronists had the line of cooling off the situation. The line of the PTP/RCP is not clear, but reports indicated that they were mobilizing numerous cadres to intervene. Senator Yoma, of the Peronist Party announced that they were looking for a) moratorium and/or re-negotiation of the foreign debt; 2) floating the peso in relation to the dollar and the "pesoization" of the economy, including the transfer of all contracts in dollars to pesos; c) protection of money from small investors in banks and d) establishment of an emergency food program. Yoma offered no details. Others in Congress, however, insisted that devaluing the peso was a must do. This could trigger yet another catastrophe for workers. It is unlikely Saa would continue running for office, thus his election as President for 60 days. Interim President Puerta gave a press conference and announced that he was taking over until tomorrow's legislative assembly and informed the media that the new president may look into the formation of a government of "National Unity" for sixty days, inviting all sectors and political parties to participate. The US government declared that Argentina must follow the instructions and plans proposed by the IMF without hesitation. But it is clear that whatever the plans of the ruling class, Argentinean or otherwise, Argentina's future will be decided in the streets rather than the government houses. Update: December 22 Anger at the killings of over 30 people last Thursday grew exponentially today when it was disclosed that many of those killed by the police were children 9-14 years old. In one case, a 14 years old girl was shot point blank on the back of the head when she was running away from a super-market with one package of dry pasta. Her family, was disclosed, had been eating only bread for the previous week. A sector of the "piqueteros" was calling to a national conference for today, Saturday, to respond to the political situation. The ¨piqueteros" is a national movement that organizes picket lines at super-markets and negotiate with their owners free distribution of food. At this writing, delegates from different cities and coordinating groups were arriving at the meeting. Meanwhile, the legislative assembly approved all the Peronist proposals: elected Saa Rodriguez President, called presidential elections in 90 days under the single transferable voting system and announced that they were intent in forming a government of "national unity." To Be Continue The author of these reports can be contacted by writing to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] _________________________________________________ KOMINFORM P.O. Box 66 00841 Helsinki Phone +358-40-7177941 Fax +358-9-7591081 http://www.kominf.pp.fi General class struggle news: [EMAIL PROTECTED] subscribe mails to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Geopolitical news: [EMAIL PROTECTED] subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] __________________________________________________
