Good morning, Bill! > On Fri, 2004-12-17 at 22:02 -0800, Lowell C. Savage wrote: > > Assuming randomness, you have one chance out of ten that a vote total is > a > > multiple of 10. To happen twice would be odds of 1 out of 10 x 10 or > 1/100. > > Nope, that is a case of "the gamblers fallacy". > http://www.fallacyfiles.org/gamblers.html > > See other post for details.
No. The gambler's fallacy in this case would be using the first result to change the odds of the second. That wasn't what I was up to. Rather, I was computing the odds of the total event. If you roll two ordinary dice, you have a 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/36 chance of getting snake eyes (double ones). If you had ten-sided dice, then the chances would be 1/10 * 1/10 = 1/100. So, the odds of two counties in the same legislative district having vote totals divisible by 10 would be 1/10 * 1/10 = 1/100. Lowell C. Savage It's the freedom, stupid! Gun control: tyrants' tool, fools' folly. _______________________________________________ Libnw mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] List info and subscriber options: http://immosys.com/mailman/listinfo/libnw Archives: http://immosys.com/mailman//pipermail/libnw
