https://theconversation.com/shutting-down-social-media-does-not-reduce-violence-but-rather-fuels-it-115960
> In the wake of a series of coordinated attacks that claimed more than 250 > lives on April 21, the government of Sri Lanka shut off its residents’ access > to social media and online messaging systems, including Facebook, WhatsApp, > YouTube, Snapchat and Viber. The official government concern was that “false > news reports were spreading through social media.” > > Some commentators applauded the move, suggesting the dangers of > disinformation on social media justified shutting down communication networks > in times of crisis. Five years of research on the impact of shutdowns and > other information controls on societies worldwide have led me to the exact > opposite conclusion. > > A diverse community of academics, businesses and civil society groups shares > my view. The blackouts deprived Sri Lankans of impartial news reports and > disconnected families from each other as they sought to find out who had > survived and who was among the dead and injured. Most strikingly, recent > research suggests that the blackouts might have increased the potential for > protest and violence in the wake of the attack. > > > This Sri Lankan man in New York City couldn’t reach loved ones on social > media, so he had to turn to an older technology: landline phones. AP > Photo/Bebeto Matthews > A constellation of control > > Sri Lanka’s latest social media shutdown was not an isolated incident. The > first time Sri Lanka took a similar action was amid violent unrest in 2018. > It was one of 188 network shutdowns or large-scale disruptions to digital > communication that year all around the world, according to digital rights > advocacy organization Access Now. > > Overall, since the Arab Spring began in 2010, governments have carried out at > least 400 shutdowns across more than 40 countries. Those include hundreds of > ephemeral shutdowns in India, where they first emerged as a localized > response to unrest in the northern region of Kashmir and subsequently spread > to most other states. > > The number also includes so-called “digital sieges,” which last for weeks or > months at a time. For example, long-lasting, government-imposed blackouts > have ravaged burgeoning digital economies such as that of Anglophone Cameroon > and have disconnected businesses, relatives and communities in Chad for more > than a year. > > In study after study, civil society organizations have documented the human > rights problems caused by internet shutdowns and the economic damage they > produce. > > Only recently have researchers begun to ask a more fundamental question: Do > massive disruptions to digital communication achieve their intended purposes? > Sri Lanka’s government is one of many to publicly claim that their goal in > severing communication links is to prevent the spread of disinformation and > decrease violence based on those falsehoods – but not a single one has > followed a shutdown with any sort of evidence that it worked to protect > public safety. > > Of course, the coexistence of social media and social turbulence does not > necessarily imply that one causes the other. Many scholars have tried to > figure out if there is a link between access to social media and violence, > but it’s an extremely difficult task. > > For one thing, social media websites and services are always changing how > their systems work, making them hard to study over time. Connectivity also > advances at a lightning-fast pace: In 2018, for instance, internet > penetration in rural India increased at an annual rate of 30%, connecting > hundreds of millions of people for the first time. Today, roughly three > Indian citizens are introduced to the internet every second. > > Shutdowns, however, are fixed in time and space, and their effects blanket > large swathes of an area’s population. This lets scholars study their effects > with more confidence. Paradoxically, then, one of the best methods of > evaluating technology’s effects on society may be to examine what happens > when communications are suddenly cut off. > > > > Research on early blackouts has shown that Egypt’s disappearance from the > global internet in 2011 backfired spectacularly, spreading protesters away > from Tahrir Square and into numerous decentralized pockets of resistance. > Coordination of the demonstrations swiftly moved from Facebook event pages to > individual efforts in each neighborhood. This proved impossible for security > forces to subdue. Ten days later, the Mubarak regime fell. > > In the Syrian Civil War, the government used shutdowns as a weapon of war, > following up with increased violence against civilians. In Africa, > authoritarian governments that own the communication infrastructure and > leaders who rule in virtual perpetuity are more inclined to pull the plug, > but there is no evidence to suggest that shutdowns are effective in > discouraging street protest or violent unrest. > > Indeed, official explanations for shutdowns – if the government acknowledges > them at all – are often at odds with their likely true motivations, which > include silencing opposition figures and ensuring a state monopoly on > information during contentious elections. In the midst of a crisis, this > leaves the government as the only official gatekeeper of information. That > becomes especially problematic when the government itself becomes a conduit > for false and potentially harmful news, as was the case when Sri Lankan media > circulated police reports that falsely identified a student at Brown > University as a terrorist following the recent attack. > > What happens without a connection? > > Protests are not monolithic forces, and their participants can adapt to > changing circumstances – including a sudden lack of information and even a > blockage of communication and coordination. The global proliferation of > shutdowns and rapid improvements in data about protests and conflicts enable > researchers to analyze not only whether protests continue during internet > blackouts, but also how they shift and change. > > In India, state governments have faced thousands of peaceful demonstrations, > as well as episodes of violent unrest. The country has become by far the > world’s most prolific executor of deliberate internet blackouts over the last > several years. > > > > To find out the role of internet access in these events, I used precise, > daily-level data on thousands of protests that occurred in the 36 states and > Union Territories of India in 2016, as well as data tracking the location, > timing and duration of shutdowns from a variety of cross-referenced news > sources and civil society groups. > > The results were striking: Under a blackout, each successive day of protest > had more violence than would typically happen as a protest unfolded with > continued internet access. Meanwhile, the effects of shutdowns on peaceful > demonstrations, which are usually more likely to rely on careful coordination > through digital channels, were ambiguous and inconsistent. In no scenario > were blackouts consistently linked to reduced levels of protest over the > course of several days. Instead of curtailing protest, they seemed to > encourage a tactical shift to strategies that are less orderly, more chaotic > and more violent. > > Darkness is a phone call away > > Recent events only seem to confirm these dynamics. The regimes of Abdelaziz > Bouteflika in Algeria and Omar al-Bashir in Sudan both resorted to shutdowns > before imploding. The drastic measures did nothing to rein in the protests in > either country. Instead, shutting off internet access may have accelerated > their downfalls. > > Even if shutdowns are ineffective, they can be tempting for governments that > need to be seen taking action. Vague and often antiquated laws let them > implement drastic measures like shutdowns easily and quickly, with a written > order or even a simple phone call. But every time a government uses the > tactic, it makes others more likely to follow suit – in the same country and > around the world. The evidence shows that this takes a heavy toll on their > citizens, both economically and in terms of human rights, without offering > them any additional protection or safety. -- Kim Holburn IT Network & Security Consultant T: +61 2 61402408 M: +61 404072753 mailto:k...@holburn.net aim://kimholburn skype://kholburn - PGP Public Key on request _______________________________________________ Link mailing list Link@mailman.anu.edu.au http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
