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Michael Karadjis cited: 'In December of 1991, Ukraine had a referendum on independence from the Soviet Union. Voter turnout was 76 percent, and 90 percent of the ballots were in favor of independence. According to the 1989 census, Russians constituted 22 percent of Ukraine's population and Ukrainians 73 percent. (In the 2001 census, the Russian population dropped to 17 percent and the Ukrainian population rose to 77.5 percent) The voting statistics for that referendum are broken down geographically, not by ethnic group. Still, in every oblast in the country, there was a majority for independence, Even in Crimea, with ethnic Russians comprising 67 percent of the population, 54 percent of the votes were for independence. At a minimum, a significant number of ethnic Russians in Crimea voted for Ukraine's independence, as they did countrywide. There is little reason to think that this has changed... A poll taken on the peninsula shortly before the Russian invasion showed only 42 percent of the population favoring independence.' The feeling I had in respect of the vote confirming the independence of Ukraine back in 1991 was that the high majority in favour was based upon two factors: firstly, that it was confirming the fact that the Soviet Union had broken up and was not going to return; secondly, that there was a strong feeling in Ukraine that its economy would bear up better than Russia's. This did not mean that Russians in Eastern and Central Ukraine wished to break ties with Russia. A different indicator of attitudes towards Russia was during the Presidential elections, where candidates seen as anti-Russian received tiny votes in the East and huge votes in the West. For example: 1994 < http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:%D0%92%D0%B8%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8_1994.png>; 1999 < http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:%D0%92%D0%B8%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B8_1999.png>. Ironically, Kuchma represented the pro-Russian line against the pro-Western Kravchuk in 1994 (both were former Soviet bureaucrats), and represented the anti-Russian line in 1999. This east/west pattern was repeated in 2004, when Yunukovich did very poorly in the West and very well in the East, and Yushchenko had the opposite result. The idea that Ukraine's economy would do better than Russia's was soon shown to be in vain; the economic collapse in Ukraine was worse than in Russia. However, one suspects that even though some Ukrainians have come to regret the collapse of the Soviet Union, very few actually expect to see its being reassembled. And if reunification with today's Russia means major upheaval and maybe violence in Ukraine, then I doubt that such a reunification is a compelling vision even for those who look longingly towards the united Soviet past. However, if, as I have stated in a previous posting, the tensions between the Russian and Ukrainian government reach such a point at which one's national identity and allegiance become a highly-charged political matter -- and I feel that we are some way towards this -- then one can't tell what kind of desires vis-à-vis Russia may arise in Eastern Ukraine when things start getting hot. As for the referendum in the Crimea, I suspect that, if he plays his cards carefully, Putin will declare a pro-Russia vote as an indication of the population's desires, but will concede Ukrainian sovereignty over the peninsula but with an extended lease for his fleet and broader autonomy for the Crimean government. He'll get what he wants and also look magnanimous at the same time. I suspect that this is what the Western powers are working for, behind the scenes and behind their bluster. Of course, Putin could blunder as he has done before, consider the Crimea to be Russian territory, and thereby make things a lot more difficult and dangerous very quickly, greatly accelerating the divisive trends already afoot in Ukraine. Paul F ________________________________________________ Send list submissions to: Marxism@greenhouse.economics.utah.edu Set your options at: http://greenhouse.economics.utah.edu/mailman/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
