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Mike Ely gives a short picture here.
http://mikeely.wordpress.com/2009/12/19/nepals-autonomous-zones-how-might-this-serve-preparation-for-revolution/

My understanding is what the Maoists did after their initial upsurge that
followed their removal from government in a "soft coup", was to go back to
the poor communities and hold a big discussion n their own ranks and then
through out the poor communities about the way forward, and began a process
of strengthening from the ground up. There are dual power-type institutions
set up by the Maoists as parallel governments in nine district
apparently,with plans to extend them further (hence Kathmandu disrtict)

The "taking"of Kathmandu fits into to this process - it is not an attempt
(yet) to declare a counter national government, they declared the Kathmandu
district an autonomous zone with a parallel government to the existing
district authorities. Not just an autonomous zone, but for a national
minority, the Newa people.

They are seeking to extend this process throughout Nepal. Mike Ely also
reports intensifying Maoist-led land seizures by peasants.

My impression, taken from a cornade who spet a long time in Nepal with the
Maoists lthis year, is that support for the Maoists has been growing
signifiacntly in the aftermath of them leaving government, and they sought
to patiently build organisation srtength based on this in the poor areas
that are their stronghold and beyond. The government was seen as
undemocratic and a pouppet of India and the US, "anti-national" and
anti-democratic — a threat to to the hard fought popular victory in wining a
republic.

Last month (or maybe slightly earlier), they launched a new round of
protests that shut Kathmandu down and stopped the government from meeting by
blockading it. They similarly shut down other key institutions in the
capital, around their demand that the president be sacked and his
counter-order to the Maoists cancelling their moves against the army high
command be rescinded.

It was a very formidable show of strength, to which the existing government
appeared helpless — the government had to meet in a secret location

I don't (and can't) know the exact relationship of forces or the exact
strategic and tactical plan the Maoists are working from, but it seems clear
to me that they have massive and growing support and organisational strength
— and they sought to avoid adventurism earlier this year with a premature
insurrection. They appear to be laying the groundwork, politically and
organisationally, for bigger moves. Even now, they are not taking the rad of
direct insurrection, but creating counter-powers based ont he poor
throughout the country. Whether it i right or wrong, I guess we will see.

Stuart
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