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In their recent negotiations with the Labor Party the Greens set as a
condition that there would be a parliamentary debate on Australia's
involvement in Afghanistan.  This is about to take place and as a prelude we
had a supplement on the war in Murdoch's flagship paper The Weekend
Australian. To read the stuff there was like being forced to swallow a dozen
emetics, but there were some gems and of course some glaring omissions.

The economic facts associated with the nine year long Australian involvement
are that "the Afghanistan war is budgeted to cost $1.2 billion in 2009-10
and Defence will also spend an extra $87 million on establishing a Middle
East operations headquarters in the United Arab Emirates"

In military terms the cost is beginning to rise as well.  Though Australian
causalities at 21 dead and 180 wounded are low they are increasing.  That is
disguised by the two fold nature of the Australian mission - a] to train the
Afghan Army  and b] to conduct search and destroy missions primarily through
the use of Special Forces.

In terms of political justification for the war most emphasis is placed on
a].  though of course it would not need the current number of troops to
train the Afghan Army.  Moreover, and this is covered over by a scandalous
silence, the current Afghan Army is largely based on the minority tribes-
primarily the Tajiks.

There are some precious moments in the Murodch rag's analysis. I loved this
from Brendan Nicholson the Canberra Bureau chief:

" A bleak suspicion is growing that what's driving the war in Afghanistan is
what we're doing to win it, that the occupation by coalition troops is
fuelling much of the insurgency".

What can one say here but "Duh!"?

The Associate Editor Cameron Stewart comes closest to the truth when he says
"Most experts now say the most compelling reason for Australia to remain in
Afghanistan for several more years is to act as a good alliance partner to
the US".

Spelt out clearly we are in Afghanistan because the Americans want us there
and we will leave when they say it is ok to do so.  However that is hardly
the kind of real politik to build national pride on.  So there is a kind of
taboo and awkwardness about spelling out the truth to Australians about why
we are in Afghanistan.

To give the devil his due, Foreign Editor Greg Sheridan does try.  He says

" For the bottom line is that global security, and Australia in particular
needs a US that is capable of taking a decisive military action if
required."

What are the Australian "particular needs"?  Well Sheridan spells them out
for us.

"The longer  the US bleeds soldiers and treasure in Afghanistan, the more it
chews up, or cuts back on, military capabilities in the Asia-Pacific.  These
capabilities, among other things, provide a credible deterrent to China.
That is essential if the balance of power in Asia is to be maintained."


So there we have it.  We are in Afghanistan to support the US so they will
support us against the Chinese threat.

The madness behind this is revealed if we look at the trade stats.  China is
now the second largest target for Australian exports just behind Japan.
However exports to Japan are falling while they are rising to China.  Indeed
if it were not for the increase in exports to China, then Australia would be
in a very bad way indeed.  So economically we are tied to China and
increasingly so, but politically we are supposed to see them as a threat.

Something will have to give here. The friendly coverage given in the
Australian today to the Chinese dissidents, especially Liu Xiao, would seem
to indicate that in the war that Artesian is forecasting between China and
the US, once again Australia will be there as in Afghanistan on the side of
the US of A.

comradely

Gary
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