----- Original Message ----- From: mart <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: Radio Havana <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; New Worker Online <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; KIM <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; Bill Howard <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; <pvoice@telus>; <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; Vladimir Krsljanin <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; Michel Collon <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; Mrs. Jela Jovanovic <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; iac <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Sunday, February 18, 2001 1:33 PM Subject: Fw: What's next ? Forward from mart. ----- Original Message ----- From: Bob Petrovich <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Monday, February 19, 2001 11:16 AM Subject: CPB: What's next ? > After 2 separate remote bomb attacks in Kosovo this weekend > (Strpce- 4dead, Podujevo -at least 10 dead) NATO got > the message from the terrorists. > http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,99683,00.html > > There is a subtle message for U.S.A. also: Second terrorist > attack (Strpce, American sector) possibly endangered American > lives on ground as well. However, this was concealed from > public view by mainstream U.S. media. > http://it.news.yahoo.com/010216/2/t4k9.html > There was no response for shooting at U.S. Ambassador earlier > this month either (news/web AFP). What's next? > > ------------------------------------------------------------ > > > The Centre for Peace in the Balkans > http://www.balkanpeace.org > > February 2001 > > > > WHAT'S NEXT FOR THE BALKANS? > > > After all that happened last fall on a political scene in Yugoslavia and > Serbia, the unavoidable logical question is: "What's next for the Balkans"? > With divergent interests of the US and Western Europe, Albanian terrorism > in Serbia and Macedonia, Montenegrin secessionism and renewed nationalism > in Croatia, the Balkans will be a hot spot for some time to come. > > > Europe vs. U.S. : Divergent interests > > While publicly applauding the political changes that took place in Yugoslavia > on October 5 of last year, the US has not done anything to support the new > authorities in Belgrade. On the contrary, it can be said that the US is making > life difficult for President Vojislav Kostunica and his administration; politically > through the Hague tribunal and militarily by allowing Albanian terrorists > to operate freely in Kosovo and the 5km buffer zone between Kosovo and Serbia. > > A recent visit by Hague tribunal chief prosecutor Carla Del Ponte to Belgrade > was followed by two prominent U.S.Senators, John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Joe > Lieberman (D-Del.). The Senators told the Yugoslav leadership that unless > they cooperated fully with the tribunal, no aid would be forthcoming from > the U.S. Such demands are creating tough choices for the new authorities > and causing a great deal of political turbulence. Both Senators are well > known for supporting Albanians and the terrorist so-called Kosovo Liberation > Army (KLA). Sen. Lieberman told the Washington Post on April 28, 1999: "The > United States of America and the Kosovo Liberation Army stand for the same > human values and principles...Fighting for the KLA is fighting for human > rights and American values." Sen. McCain demand the use of US ground troops > against Yugoslav forces during NATO's aggression on Yugoslavia. > > The buffer zone between Serbia and Kosovo is a safe haven and training ground > for Albanian terrorists. While controlled by US troops, the terrorists were > free to enter and leave in uniforms and with weapons. The Europeans, tired > of Albanian intransigence, placed their own troops in the region to slow > down terrorist movements. > > It will take some time for new U.S. president George W. Bush and his foreign > policy team to reverse the policies of the Clinton administration. At present, > the desires of Europe and that of the US are in opposite camps. The Europeans > want a stable region without conflict, while the US has tacitly approved > of Albanian terrorism, going so far as to provide training and arms for them. > > > Building Greater Albania > > The Greater Albania project seems to have hit some obstacles, but the dream > remains alive. Recent condemnation for terrorist attacks from the Council > of Europe has taken a shine off the self-styled Albanian "freedom-fighters." > Even the US could not stay silent when Albanian snipers took pot shots at > US ambassador to Yugoslavia, William Montgomery, during his tour of the Presevo > Valley. > > Undeterred and unrepentant, Albanians continue to arm and train. Recently, > an offshoot of the KLA announced its presence in Macedonia where the terrorists > have shot at police, army personnel and border guards. Whenever things get > too hot for them in Macedonia, or any other area for that matter, the terrorists > slink back to Kosovo where NATO troops turn a blind eye to their activities. > > Recently, the KLA is looking into new sources of 'financing' in parts of > Europe that were previously outside their scope of operations (http://www.balkanpeace.org/hed/archive/may00/hed98.shtml) > (even with the baby black market http://www.balkanpeace.org/hed/archive/july00/hed361.shtml) > and as a result, it is turning out to be a nightmare for Western Europeans. > The European Union has called the movement "economic refugees" to its member > states a number one concern. The illegals are smuggled by criminal gangs, > many idenitified as being Albanian in origin. The activities of Albanian > criminals are creating enormous policing challenges for European law enforcement > agencies. Whatever sympathy the Albanians enjoyed previously is quickly eroding > as a result of their criminal enterprises. > > Recent developments suggest that Albanian strategists and their consultants > entered into an extremely dangerous game without a predictable outcome. Their > first gambit, getting NATO to intervene on their behalf worked. The second, > continuing armed provocations in order to force the West into calling elections > in Kosovo and giving them independence all but in name, is failing. It is > totally unrealistic to believe that Kosovo Albanians will be content with > any form of autonomy, even the self-governing type provided by the communists > in 1974. Kosovo Albanians organized a number of violent demonstrations during > the 80s (http://www.balkanpeace.org/cib/kam/kams/index.shtml) only because > the law for autonomy didn't include the right to secession or independence. > There is no indication that they will stop at anything until they achieve > their independence goal and the Greater Albania project. Look for continued > and increased terrorist attacks by Albanians in Serbia, Macedonia and eventually > Montenegro. > > > Belgrade's Choices > > Essentially, Belgrade is faced with three choices: 1) Do nothing; 2) negotiate > and 3) use force. Option one is not an option as the situation on the ground > is untenable. The terrorists have set up checkpoints and preventing the free > flow of people and goods. > > The new authorities have opted for a negotiated settlement with the Albanians, > who have rejected the proposed peace plan. That action prompted the following > comment: "We have to give it a shot," said one Western diplomat of the Serbian > government's latest plan. "But I don't know if it will really work. In the > end, there is going to have to be some use of force on the Serbian side." > The use of force will have to be swift, decisive and with a minimum of civilian > casualties. > > Belgrade will not have a free hand to deal with the situation on the ground > but, if the diplomatic momentum continues, Yugoslav forces could end up working > in tandem with NATO troops. Whatever the means, use of force us unavoidable. > > Serbia and the Economy > > When William Clinton defeated Bush the Elder in the 1991 presidential election, > he did it with the catchphrase "It's the economy, stupid." Newly sworn-in > Serbian prime minister Zoran Djindjic, along with his economic advisors, > have been saying that since former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic > announced elections last year. They had to add corruption, lawlessness, nepotism > and state and personal cleptocracy to the list, but this is the Balkans, > after all. > > The authorities are attempting to revive the Yugoslav economy, but this will > truly be a Herculean effort. The first task is to rewrite existing laws allowing > for foreign ownership and joint ventures, as well as liberalizing ownership > laws in Yugoslavia itself. The tax code must be re-written, both personal > and corporate. An intensive effort must be mounted to wipe out the black > market economy that was the economy during eight years of economic sanctions. > This would also allow the government to have a tax-base with which to rebuild > the infrastructure, mainly roads and the electronic grid. > > Once the legal framework is set, attracting foreign investment that will > rebuild plants and factories and provide local employment is the next challenge. > Yugoslavia's natural trading partners are Germany, Italy, Greece, Ukraine > and Russia. The capital investment will come from Western European countries, > specifically Germany, France and Italy. > > The task may not be as hopeless as it sounds. Serbia (and Yugoslavia) represent > a strategic position for Europe: > > - Germany has billions of dollars invested in the Danube and wants to secure > control and unobstructed passage of ships from the Black to Baltic Sea. > > - The Iran-Western Europe natural gas pipeline would enable Europe to have > diversified deliveries of Russian natural gas. This highly rumored pipeline > was only in the planning stages as the US opposed it fearing it would strengthen > Iran. Under all realistic plans, the natural gas pipeline will have to go > through Serbia on its way to Western Europe which means direct competition > between companies such as British Gas, French and German companies. The advantage > here could be the influence France and Germany have with top-level Yugoslav > authorities. > > The Yugoslav economy was practically non-existent during the past eight years, > except for the black market. It has nowhere to go but up. The currency has > stabilized and has held solid for the last three months. Slowly, western > companies are opening branches to take advantage of Yugoslavia's highly educated > labour pool and advantageous geographic position. The only worrying aspect > is the slow pace at which economic progress is being made. > > > The Bush Team > > The United States has sent out some conflicting signals when it comes to > the Balkans. During the elections, national security advisor Condoleezza > Rice said the Bush Administration would pull US troops out of the Balkans > very quickly. Once in office, Secretary of State Colin Powel said the US > was in for the long haul. On the political front, Secretary Powell refused > a meeting with Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic, sending a clear message > that the new administration will not support a further destabilization of > Yugoslavia (http://www.balkanpeace.org/hed/archive/feb01/hed2552.shtml). > However, Secretary Powell also met with Hashim Thaci and Ramus Haradinaj, > heads of the terrorist KLA. Conflicting reports were issued as to the topic > of discussion, with the Albanians saying the US was for Kosovo's independence, > while Powell's spokesperson said the topic was never broached. > > The Bush team is fully aware of the problems they face in the Balkans: wide-spread > corruption in Bosnia (http://www.balkanpeace.org/hed/archive/nov00/hed1143.shtml) > which puts in question all investments made by the West up to this point; > Albanian extremism is spilling over into FYR Macedonia (http://www.balkanpeace.org/cib/mac/mac15.shtml) > which poses a questions of how far reaching is American tolerance for Hashim > Thaci, Ramus Haradinaj (http://balkanpeace.org/hed/archive/sept00/hed560.shtml) > and the rest of the KLA leaders who are constantly walking that fine line > between criminal actions and 'political' aspirations (http://www.balkanpeace.org/hed/archive/aug00/hed516.shtml). > It is more and more obvious that Kosovo is becoming the base for drug smuggling > (into Western Europe) mafias (http://www.balkanpeace.org/hed/archive/sept00/hed569.shtml). > It is expect that Europeans will put pressure on their American allies regarding > Albanian 'politicians' and their aspirations to build a European Medellin > in Kosovo. (http://www.balkanpeace.org/our/our03.shtml). > > The U.S. is in conflict with Europe (and the rest of the world) over the > controversial Missile Defence Shield, policies towards Iraq and Israel, trade > issues and finally the Balkans. It will take time for the Bush team to divest > itself of Clinton's and former Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright's > illogical policies in the region, and that divestiture cannot come too soon > for the Europeans, and especially the residents of the region. > > > Montenegro - A Family Affair > > The very first post-graduation job Milo Djukanovic secured was as prime minister > of Montenegro. Appointed to the post by his good friend, then Serbian president > Slobodan Milosevic, Djukanovic did not miss a trick from his mentor. Having > bit the hand that fed him (like Milosevic did with Stambolic), Djukanovic > had no choice but to turn "democrat" and sing from the same sheet as Madeleine > Albright, the International Crisis Group, Joe Biden and Joe Lieberman. > > As president of Montenegro, Djukanovic turned it into a family business, > with himself as capo di tutti capo. It is telling that Djukanovic's finance > minister and close friend was forced to resign after being indicted by Italy > for cigarette smuggling. Rumors persist that Djukanovic is the target of > a wide-ranging criminal indictment by Italy. "Handsome" Milo's legal troubles > do not end at the potential Italian indictment, they only begin. There is > another rumor that Djukanovic was secretly indicted by the Hague tribunal > for his role in the bombing of Dubrovnik. Informed sources say that unless > Djukanovic plays ball, the indictment will be made public. Milo was only > too willing to oblige, as a recent Del Ponte visit to Podgorica proved. > > Djukanovic's potential legal troubles are the main motivation for his desire > to secede Montenegro from Yugoslavia. He thinks that as president of an independent > state, he will enjoy some sort of immunity as a political factor of stability > in the region. Obviously Mr. Djukanovic has not been reading the papers or > he would have known about the fate of former Chilean strongman Augusto Pinochet > and his own mentor, Slobodan Milosevic. > > Djukanovic will press on for Montenegro's independence, as it is his lifeline, > at least in his own mind. The reality is that if he had the support for an > independent state, he would have gone to the people instead of trying to > pull a Milosevic and do it through the Montenegrin parliament. > > Montenegro is economically unviable and only exists because Djukanovic is > still propped-up by the US, a carryover from the Clinton/Albright years. > Where once a White house regular, Djukanovic could not get as much as a cup > of coffee from Powell, let alone a meeting. Should the US sever the financial > umbilical cord, it would at the same time sever Djukanovic's political career. > > > Bosnia's nightmare > > Five years since the Dayton agreement was signed and the only thing different > in Bosnia is the military uniforms. Since Bosnia is being virtually occupied > by NATO troops and governed by the triumvirate of US ambassador Thomas Miller, > OSCE representative Wolfgang Petrich and UN representative and former US > general Jacques Klein, little was achieved without their dictate. It is worth > noting that their attempt to buy stability has largely failed. The Federation > entity (Muslim-Croat) received several billions of dollars in foreign aid, > most of which disappeared without a trace. > > Money aimed at helping Bosnia pay off its foreign debt has been used instead > for loans to well-connected officials to help their personal businesses. > Western officials suspect that reconstruction money "may be lining the pockets > of the officials close to Izetbegovic's ruling party, who head almost all > of Bosnia's state-owned public utilities companies," according to the Boston > Globe. http://www.balkanpeace.org/cib/bos/bosi/bosi03.shtml > > At the same time media reports about scandals showing that unconfirmed war > stories about Muslim forces killing their own citizens (mostly Sarajevo) > were true. http://www.balkanpeace.org/cib/bos/wctb14.shtml. Five years after > the Dayton love-in (all the signers are out of office now - Clinton, Izetbegovic, > Milosevic, Tudjman), Bosnia does not have an economy or political stability. > While its second part, the Bosnian Serb entity known as Republika Srpska > has formed an expert government that at least has the potential for success, > the Federation entity is still struggling to decide who will receive a mandate > to form the new government. At the same time, the HDZ (which enjoys majority > support from Bosnian Croats) has threatened to abandon all the Federation's > institutions and start a constitutional crisis. The Croat representative > in the Bosnia's "Presidency of three equals," Ante Jelavic, has recently > wrote a latter to the UN demanding a new conference about Bosnia and a re-writing > of the Dayton accords. Simply put, the HDZ wants its own Croatian entity > in Bosnia and no further co-existence with the Bosnian Muslims. Considering > the fact that the ruling triumvirate has violated the Dayton accords on numerous > occasions, including making the city of Brcko a third entity, nothing should > come as a surprise, including the complete disintegration of a country that > was forced to be a country. > > > The Croatian Wildcard > > A rally in Split on Sunday, February 11, 2001, saw 100,000 people gather > to protest efforts to arrest retired Maj. Gen. Mirko Norac, 33, a popular > hero of the country's 1991 war for independence from the former Yugoslav > federation. According to reports, "dozens of people gave the Nazi salute > during the playing of the national anthem, recalling the merger of nationalism > and fascism in Croatia during World War II." > > Norac is being charged for war crimes by the Croatian government and is not > on any Hague wanted list. According to the Washington Post (Feb. 16/01), > > "Prosecutors' interest in Norac stems from events in 1991, when he was 23. > Norac allegedly took part in the brutal killings of Serbs, including women, > children and the elderly. According to Nacional, citing confidential court > testimony, six Croats who participated in the killing said Norac's paramilitary > forces took 15 civilians between ages 15 and 60 to a forest outside Gospic > and executed them. > > Norac is also accused of overseeing the execution of prisoners and the rape > and execution of women at a prison camp he helped set up in 1991." > > Croat extremists are outraged that a "hero" of the "Patriotic War" may face > war crimes charges, and in a Croatian court. Their movement is gaining momentum > with a disenchanted Croat public. (more about the Norac case at: http://www.balkanpeace.org/gcgns/index.shtml) > > The inability of President Stipe Mesic and Prime Minister Ivica Racan to > resuscitate the economy, unemployment climbed to 26% under their rule, has > given the hardliners and extremists a new impetus. Both Mesic and Racan are > fighting for their political lives as war veteran groups are calling them > traitors and demanding their resignations. It is unlikely that Croatia will > see foreign investment in the country as long the political situation remains > uncertain. > > > Conclusions > > Of course, the prerequisite for profitable investment is a stable political > situation in the region. From that perspective it is very clear why Europe > is not supportive of Djukanovic's idea for independence, why Europe wants > the Kosovo problem solved, and why they want Bosnia and Hercegovina to become > a link between Yugoslavia and Croatia, connecting Republic of Srpska and > Yugoslavia in the form of a "special relationships". > > The coming spring will certainly bring a lot of events. First of all, there > will be a division in the Momir Bulativic's SPP (Socialist People's Party) > where most will accept Predrag Bulatovic's pragmatic diplomacy. We can expect > something similar to what happened in the Milo Djukanovic's ruling party > DPS (Democratics Party of Socialists) which may fall apart due to a lack > of vision in regards to Montenegro's future and decreased public support. > As such, Mr. Djukanovic is forced to form political coalitions that are not > supported by many of his party members. The elections in Montenegro will > show a huge division between the people, and this alone brings up a question > if it is in Serbian best interest to carry this political weight around its > neck. In case Serbia gets a guarantee that Kosovo will remain a part of Serbia > (theoretically guaranteed by UN Resolution 1244), Kostunica-Djindjic could > give up on keeping the federation together at "any cost" and call for a referendum > with the question if Serbs want to live together with Montenegrins. > > But, then again, should there be a division of Kosovo along Serbian and an > Albanian parts, we would expect Republika Srpska to ask for integration with > Serbia which would inevitably lead to new disturbances in Balkans. Legally > inexistent "Herceg Bosna" (Croatian federation inside Bosnia and Hercegovina) > would also see this as an opportunity (http://www.balkanpeace.org/hed/archive/nov00/hed1193.shtml) > to do the same with Croatia. In this scenario, the chances for economical > prospects in the region are bleak, so we can expect American and European > corporate lobbies to make sure this scenario doesn't get implemented. > > There are many scenarios for the Balkans. They range from the bleak (civil > wars in Montenegro, Macedonia and South Serbia), to pragmatic (region semi-stable, > continual Albanian attacks in Serbia and Macedonia), to the wildly optimistic > who dream of a Balkania project, a Balkan version of the European Union. > At best, forecasting is a fool's game, so we will spare the reader other > than to say, the Balkans are the Balkans - anything can happen. _______________________________________________ Marxist-Leninist-List mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] To change your options or unsubscribe go to: http://lists.wwpublish.com/mailman/listinfo/marxist-leninist-list
