Les & Anthony - To add: Today in Adam Tooze a reference from the FT (which I do not have access to): https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/decomposing-economic-surprise-when?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=17xgfq&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email";
-> "Threats only work, if you actually have leverage … or why a new Monroe doctrine is a “beltway” pipedream. assume for a moment that threats remain Trump’s lingua franca — ones like the proposed 60 per cent tariffs on all goods that pass through the new Chinese-owned and operated mega-port of Chancay in Peru, or 200 per cent tariffs on Mexican-made cars, which Trump fears China could exploit as a backdoor into the US market. Threats only work when they are backed by leverage. But the US’s leverage is not evenly distributed across the region. In Mexico and much of Central America and the Caribbean, Washington still holds most of the cards. Mexico still sends 80 per cent of its exports to the US, for instance. But head to South America, and the picture changes. China is the continent’s top trading partner, while five of the Latin American countries most indebted to China, and four of the five that have received the most Chinese FDI, are in South America. The best evidence that South American leaders won’t necessarily be easily swayed or cajoled by Washington is Argentina’s Trump-loving president Javier Milei. Milei, who once compared China’s leaders to “murderers” and openly adores Trump, at first cancelled plans for a Chinese-built nuclear power plant and mega-port. But by October, they were “interesting business partners”, and a new natural gas export deal, a currency swap deal to boost the country’s depleted reserves and a state visit to Beijing were all in the works. During Trump’s first term, pressure didn’t dissuade conservative presidents in Colombia and Brazil from deepening tech and trade ties to China, either. And these were South American leaders who like Trump. Now imagine the ones who don’t. South America’s major economies will resist picking sides. But if push comes to shove, it’s hard to see them distancing much from Beijing" Source: Financial Times by Will Freeman -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. View/Reply Online (#34757): https://groups.io/g/marxmail/message/34757 Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/110699138/21656 -=-=- POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. #4 Do not exceed five posts a day. -=-=- Group Owner: [email protected] Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/marxmail/leave/13617172/21656/1316126222/xyzzy [[email protected]] -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
