"Forty-seven years ago, Iran had a revolution that replaced a U.S.-allied monarchy with an anti-American theocracy. Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran may be on the verge of a counterrevolution.
History suggests that regimes collapse not from single failures but from a fatal confluence of stressors. One of us, Jack, has written at length about the five specific conditions necessary for a revolution to succeed: a fiscal crisis, divided elites, a diverse oppositional coalition, a convincing narrative of resistance, and a favorable international environment. This winter, for the first time since 1979, Iran checks nearly all five boxes...." More @ https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/01/iran-revolution-protests-collapse/685578/ "The semiofficial Tasnim news agency is reporting at least 109 security personnel have been killed since the demonstrations began more than two weeks ago." https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/1/11/iran-protests-live-tehran-says-it-will-hit-back-at-us-israel-if-attacked Trump weighs options on Iran as protest crackdown reportedly kills more than 500 "At least 538 people have been killed since demonstrations began two weeks ago, according to figures from the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency. https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/iran-threatens-attacks-us-bases-trump-intervenes-protests-death-toll-rcna253416 HRANA – "Nationwide protests in Iran continued into their fourteenth day, Saturday, January 10, amid widespread internet shutdowns and severe communication disruptions, which have significantly limited the ability to disseminate information and independently verify events. Despite these restrictions on the flow of information, the number of confirmed fatalities has risen to 116 as of this date..." The fourteenth day of nationwide protests unfolded under continued extensive internet outages and severe communication restrictions, seriously disrupting news dissemination, information flow, and on-the-ground documentation. After the protests peaked on the twelfth day, when 96 cities across 27 provinces witnessed demonstrations, Iran’s connections to the outside world were largely cut off starting that same evening. While this situation sharply limited the spread of images and reports, it did not prevent the continuation of protests inside the country. Under these circumstances, the decline in the number of cities reported in the days following the communication shutdowns is assessed as reflecting severe limitations on access to information rather than a subsiding of protests. On the fourteenth day, limited reports and images emerged of continued gatherings in Tehran. The pattern of protests in the capital has largely taken the form of scattered, short-lived, and fluid gatherings, an approach shaped in response to the heavy presence of security forces and increased field pressure. At the same time, reports were received of surveillance drones flying overhead and movements by security forces around protest locations, indicating ongoing monitoring and security control. In Shiraz, despite the heavy security presence, reports indicate that protesting citizens have continued to appear in the streets. Information received suggests the formation of small, sporadic gatherings accompanied by protest chants, although the prevailing security conditions have severely limited the ability of these protests to continue or expand. Zahedan was the third city where continued unrest on the fourteenth day could be confirmed. Reports indicate a noticeable intensification of the security atmosphere and the widespread deployment of military and security forces throughout the city. Nevertheless, information indicating the continuation of protests suggests that public discontent in the city remains unresolved. On the same day, judicial and security authorities of the Islamic Republic once again emphasized a decisive crackdown on protesters. State-affiliated media also continued the shift in tone seen in recent days, describing protesters with labels such as “terrorists” or “armed elements.” This media approach, alongside the widespread internet shutdown, is assessed as part of the authorities’ efforts to control the official narrative of the protests and justify intensified repression. Despite the internet blackout in Iran, a handful of media outlets affiliated with security forces have resumed operations using internet access. These outlets have continuously published images and reports of the protests, accusing demonstrators of severe violence and damage to citizens’ property and lives. At the international level, developments in Iran on the fourteenth day of protests were met with official reactions from several governments and international bodies. The President of the United States stated in a message that Iran is “closer to freedom than ever” and that his country is “ready to help,” a position expressed in continuation of his earlier warnings about the consequences of suppressing protesters. In Europe, the President of the European Commission and other senior EU officials condemned the violent crackdown on protests and called for the release of detainees and the full restoration of internet access. The UK government adopted a similar stance, emphasizing the need to respect the right to peaceful protest. Based on aggregated data up to the end of the fourteenth day, 574 protest locations have been identified in 185 cities across all 31 provinces of the country. By the fourteenth day, despite severe limitations on documenting and verifying information, the human and security dimensions of the protests have remained significant. As of this date, the deaths of 116 individuals in connection with the protests have been confirmed; among them, seven were under the age of 18. Additionally, four of the deceased, including medical personnel, were not among the protesters. Examination of the causes of death shows that most victims were killed by live ammunition or pellet gunfire, predominantly from close range. In contrast, 37 of those killed were members of military or security forces, and one was a prosecutor. Regarding arrests, the total number of detainees by the end of the fourteenth day reached 2,638. Of these, the identities of 628 individuals have been confirmed, while 2,010 were recorded as part of mass arrests or cases lacking specific identification. On the fourteenth day alone, the identities of 327 detainees were confirmed, a figure that, alongside the continued protests, underscores the persistence of security and judicial crackdowns against protesters." https://www.en-hrana.org/day-fourteen-of-protests-ongoing-demonstrations-internet-blackouts-and-drone-surveillance/ -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. 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