You are totally correct! It can be very scarey. My problem was not
having deep enough pockets to ride out a dip or bump in the prices - a few
cents either way can wipe out thousands - of course there are ways to limit
risk but the contract can be lost easily.
Reading all the graphs and looking for triple dips - which suppoisedly
indicate a potential rise in prices are gimmicks to catch new traders - make
them think there's a method hidden in the graphs - actually the only thing
that sees the future is knowledge of the market - little nuances like corn
increases so it costs more to feed cattle and pigs - making bacon and beef
cost more -
Actually the best way to understand how futures work is to watch the
Eddie Murphy movie that dealt with the orange juice market and the things
that made the prices change - cold weather, labor problems, etc - let's
see - "Trading Places" IIRC.
Basically *anything* is traded on the futures market -
Larry T (66 MGB, 74 911, 91 300D)
www.youroil.net for Oil Analysis and Weber Parts
Test Results http://members.rennlist.com/oil
PORSCHE POSTERS! youroil.net
800-583-8601
Weber Carb Info http://members.rennlist.com/webercarbs
----- Original Message -----
From: "dave walton" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Mercedes Discussion List" <mercedes@okiebenz.com>
Sent: Saturday, April 19, 2008 4:56 PM
Subject: Re: [MBZ] OT: McCain proposes break in fuel taxes
> Futures scare me. Options on Futures limit your risk, but are pricey.
> Nowdays I just work for a living and let the Mutual Funds sit. I do
> dabble here and there. AMD is interesting now. I did a stint as a desk
> trader in Jersey City, New Jersey many years ago, but that's a job for
> younger men - well suited to the video game generation. I'm only 6' 2"
> and was not tall enough to be a floor trader.
>
> There are parts of the oil business that behave like a free market,
> but OPEC is sitting at the top and we are subject to their whim.
>
> -Dave Walton
>
> On Sat, Apr 19, 2008 at 4:23 PM, LarryT <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>> You wrote <<Traders do not set prices.>>
>>
>> Thank goodness you wrote that! I keep hearing people who should know
>> better -
>> like the talking heads for instance - blame high oil prices on sime
>> mysterious oil traders
>> who are pushing prices up. Jeepers (how's that for a curse word?) as
>> you
>> said, if ony that were true!
>>
>> My short foray into the futures market cost me $3000 *very* fast -
>> including
>> a crude futures contract where
>> I bet it would go up - natch,.. it went down and I lost $1100 - in 3
>> days.
>> The futures market is very tricky (duh) - no one is setting prices -
>> people
>> think the price will go up or down and bet that way - then they win or
>> lose.
>> But to place the "bet" (an order) will cost more or less depending on
>> how
>> likely the move is. Say you wanted to buy a Short contract - betting
>> the
>> price of *anything* will go down - but let's say you think oil will drop
>> next week when your contract matures - since recent history says the
>> price
>> will go up and you bet matures in a week, the price for your bet will
>> not be
>> very high - but if you wanted to buy a contract bettng the contract
>> would go
>> *up* during the next week, the contract would be more expensive because
>> it's
>> likely to go up as it has during the last year - and if it doesn;t go up
>> as
>> much as you bet you lose - or if it goes down
>> during the time your contract is in effect you will need deep enuf
>> pockets
>> to ride out the bump - else, your contract will
>> be killed and, yep, you lose your money.
>>
>> Notice in all that you are *never* given the chance to tell the market
>> what
>> the price is *going* to be. Doesn;t happen -- never. But some people
>> think
>> some rich people or oil companies are setting prices and making buckets
>> of
>> money in the background. Nope - if they did they'd be guilty of
>> collusion
>> and end up in jail.
>>
>> My $3000 education goes a little farther than that - but that's the
>> basics -
>>
>> Larry T (66 MGB, 74 911, 91 300D)
>> www.youroil.net for Oil Analysis and Weber Parts
>> Test Results http://members.rennlist.com/oil
>> PORSCHE POSTERS! youroil.net
>> 800-583-8601
>> Weber Carb Info http://members.rennlist.com/webercarbs
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "dave walton" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>> To: "Mercedes Discussion List" <mercedes@okiebenz.com>
>>
>> Sent: Saturday, April 19, 2008 1:20 PM
>> Subject: Re: [MBZ] OT: McCain proposes break in fuel taxes
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> > Extending your logic a bit further, Traders do not set prices. They
>> > match sell orders with buy orders. Supply with demand. The market sets
>> > the price.
>> > If only it really worked like that....
>> >
>> > -Dave Walton
>> >
>> > On Fri, Apr 18, 2008 at 4:04 PM, Rich Thomas
>> > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>> >> I don't understand why people think an oil company should not make
>> >> profits. Their profits are pretty much in line with other
>> companies,
>> >> and lower than some (Microsoft for example), as a percentage of
>> income.
>> >> Should it be 0% or 2% or what? If less than the average then stock
>> >> prices go down, investments go down, exploration/production go
>> down,
>> >> then prices go up more. Invest in oil company stocks and reap some
>> >> benefits.
>> >>
>> >> Prices for crude and refined products are set by traders on the
>> >> exchanges, not the oil companies. Profits are what they are.
>> >> What profit % number would make everyone happy?
>> >>
>> >> --R
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Luther wrote:
>> >> > I believe in the free market, but does it really work? Take a
>> look at
>> >> the fuel industry..... Record prices AND record profits... That's
>> not
>> >> free market...
>> >> >
>> >> > Luther
>> >> >
>> >> > On Thu, 17 Apr 2008 08:55:58 -0500, Kaleb C. Striplin
>> >> <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> _______________________________________
>> >> http://www.okiebenz.com
>> >> For new parts see official list sponsor: http://www.buymbparts.com/
>> >> For used parts email [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>> >>
>> >> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
>> >> http://okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
>> >>
>> >
>> > _______________________________________
>> > http://www.okiebenz.com
>> > For new parts see official list sponsor: http://www.buymbparts.com/
>> > For used parts email [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>> >
>> > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
>> > http://okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________
>> http://www.okiebenz.com
>> For new parts see official list sponsor: http://www.buymbparts.com/
>> For used parts email [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>>
>> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
>> http://okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
>>
>
> _______________________________________
> http://www.okiebenz.com
> For new parts see official list sponsor: http://www.buymbparts.com/
> For used parts email [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>
> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
> http://okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
_______________________________________
http://www.okiebenz.com
For new parts see official list sponsor: http://www.buymbparts.com/
For used parts email [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to:
http://okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
