Greetings,
I am seeing METRo pavement forecast output with very poor run-to-run consistency for locations under the following conditions: - There are no observations being fed back into the pavement model - The atmospheric forecast (air temperature, cloud cover, precipitation, etc.) is very consistent In other words, despite a consistent atmospheric forecast and no observations to steer the forecast otherwise, METRo pavement forecasts vary by as much as 20 degrees over a 12 hour run-to-run period. Attached is a recent example of this behavior from forecasts generated on September 8th, 2010 for a location that does not report observations. The 'pave chart' tab shows the run-to-run pavement forecast output for the 00z, 03z, 06z, 09z and 12z METRo model runs. The 'pavement' tab shows the raw data in tabular form. In the table, I've highlighted the 12z Valid Date and Time to really highlight how the forecast changed throughout the night despite the fact that there are no observations for this location and despite the fact that the atmospheric forecast (air temperature, cloud cover, precipitation amount) was very consistent over this same time period. I assume this may be caused by the METRo model using the previous hours' forecast as the observation and continuing from there, almost like a self-feeding problem. It causes forecast generated in the evening to get progressively colder as new model runs come out and forecasts generated in the morning to get progressively warmer as new model runs come out. Any ideas on how to resolve this? Thanks, Jeremy
METRo run-to-run example (09.08.2010).xlsx
Description: METRo run-to-run example (09.08.2010).xlsx
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