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Bob,
As your analysis shows, what has really increased on eBay is the number of
"junk" auctions that are not even real posters, but which eBay allows to be
listed in the "originals" category. As you point out, massive numbers of
reproductions, or repros being passed off as originals, plus refrigerator
magnets, coffee mugs, whatever. This flood has swamped the "real" posters being
offered. Plus, let's not forget that many people who are not true collectors --
just someone who wants to have a few movie posters on their walls and who might
have bought an original poster for $20 to $100 -- are going to settle for a $5
to $10 reproduction when they are so easy to find (and offered in the same
category as the genuine article).
The extreme results from your example are somewhat skewed because you
picked a popular title which is subject to lots of reproductions (SCARFACE). Had
you picked a title like KING OF THE KYBER RIFLES, you would have found little or
no reproductions because there isn't a mass-market for that title among the eBay
kids and newbies that the repro-mongers are targeting. But that's quibbling a
little -- you point about the overall situation still stands.
It is true that some sellers have backed away from eBay because of this and
the fact that a few big sellers (not just Bruce) have created this expectancy on
the part of buyers that they are always entitled to see opening bids of 99 cents
to $2.99. The big sellers have deep pockets, promotional strategies, built-up
mailing lists of long-term and loyal return buyers and have other things they
can do which enables them to offer such absurd starting prices and still make
their auctions viable. But the medium to small seller simply can't do
that.
So, they get a double punch: First from the flood of junk on
eBay swamping their listings. Second from the competitive knockout from the few
big sellers who offer such low starting prices that their own look so high
in comparison that the few bidders who do find their auctions see their
realistic starting prices, think "too expensive" and simply take a pass and go
looking for the 99 cents to $2.99 "bargain" starting prices.
Even so, there are still quite a few "desirable" posters out there, it's
just gotten very hard and time-consuming to find them on eBay. That's a big
reason why I started the new auction site -- to specialize ONLY in movie poster
auctions -- as an alternative to having to plow through the mess on eBay to find
something worth looking at. We do not allow reproductions in the original
categories. And even when there are 600 to 1,000 items listed on MPB like this
week -- you can still actually browse through them easily and they are all
going to be an actual movie poster, lobby card, pressbook or maybe a still or
animation cell. But they will all be a "real" and your time is well-spent
in the looking.
I believe this is the trend for auctions of ALL collectibles, not just
movie posters. Ebay has become too much of a mess for real collectible sellers
to work in. The old magazine and book sellers have already started their own
auction sites to provide eBay alternatives. Comic books have always had their
own separate from eBay (like Heritage) and I'm sure that there will soon be
successful pottery-only auctions sites and vintage toys-only auctions sites, if
there aren't already.
It's the only thing to do in response to the disaster eBay has become. I
don't understand why many of the smaller sellers who have become so disenchanted
with eBay still have not given www.MoviePosterBid.com a try? Inertia
and force of habit, I guess. But I expect they will sooner or later.
-- JR
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, October 09, 2004
5:03
Subject: Re: [MOPO] FROM A COLLECTOR:
Where have all the sellers gone, long time passing
Yes, supply of posters is increasing. There's a ton of
auctions on eBay. A
lot more than a couple years ago. What I
meant is that the supply of
desirable posters is vastly
decreasing.
For instance, go to eBay right now and search for Scarface
(just picked that
title randomly) in ONLY the US Originals category.
The first page of 50
results yields the following (and remember, this is in
the original US
poster category):
auctions - 50
reproductions -
47
reproductions incorrectly listed as originals - 3
original US posters
- 0
original Foreign posters - 0
signed items - 1
authentic signed
items - 0
stills - 1
original stills - 0
plaques - 2
auctions with
a bid - 1
feedback rating on that high bidder - negative 1
So, if
you're judging supply, it looks pretty good. Lots of items.
Although,
of that first 50, poster collectors are not going to want even a
single
one. Not one! Even if it was free! That brings demand down
to
zero - and prices as well...
I just checked, and the eBay
sell-through rates (Ent. Mem.) for the last
week are still hovering around
30%. That's one of the worst levels in all
of eBay! Think about
it. More than 2 out of 3 poster auctions end without
a single
bid. 2 out of 3!!! That means that the sellers are not
selling
what people want. Does Bruce get a 70% pass rate? No
way in hell! He gets
about 0% And, at any given time, he's got
about 2-3% of the listings in the
poster category. That means he's
actually bringing UP everyone else's
sell-through rates! It's
actually worse than 2 out of 3!
I've got a list of 1 or 2 hundred
posters I'm looking for. Most are in the
$50-200 range. And,
most of them used to show up fairly frequently on eBay
(they're rare, so
not that often, but a fair amount). Many of them I
haven't seen on
eBay in two years. And, the ones that do show up, always
seem to go
for a LOT more than they did the last time.
Sure, the supply of the
undesirable posters has seemed to jump, but not the
rarer stuff.
That's all but dried up (compared to what it used to be
anyways).
And, being collectors, we're not interested in the
widely-available crap -
we're looking for the rare stuff, the posters from
the best films, the
great artwork, the obscure. And, there's not much of it
out
there...
Good night,
Bob
----- Original
Message -----
From: "Richard Halegua Comic Art" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent:
Friday, October 08, 2004 11:09 AM
Subject: Re: [MOPO] FROM A COLLECTOR:
Where have all the sellers gone, long
time passing
>
Fellas..
>
> Sean I agree with youthat in posters the great areas
you mention are "as
> hot as rivets in a bucket"
> i also agree
with Robert that those great huge deals are fewer and fewer
> every
year.. Something that is apparent in every hobby.
>
> However I do
not agree that poster supply is decreasing, or that aside
> from
>
the Universal & 50's horror that the rest of teh hobby is loaded
with
> crap.
>
> The simple facts are that Universal horror
& 50's sci-fi/horror is not
> even
> 1% of the entire hobby by
volume, even if it may be 25% by value
> as a matter of fact, that stuff
is more like .1% (point 1 %) of the hobby
> by volume and that there are
thousands more poster collectors who will
> never own any universal
stuff for every one who will.
>
> By that measure, the universal
stuff is un-important to the largest
> segment
> of the hobby
because they never plan to own any.
>
> To dealers, what is most
important (unless you are Ron Moore) is the great
> percentage of
material that is non-top quality stuff that may sell for
> $200
>
and less, but which is by volume the most important part of our
livelihood
> seeing as it is the area which most of us are able to buy.
locate, list
> and
> sell as opposed to dreaming that we could
make a living off selling 20-30
> Universal posters in 2005. It isn't
realistic.
>
> As such, when most of us make comments about how
prices ARE DROPPING, it
> is
> a truth that 99% of our listings
get lower bids & lower sell through rates
> due to the fact that on
eBay the same posters come up over & over, making
> posters that had
been previously difficult to locate comparably easy in
> relation to the
pre-ebay days
>
> one of the best examples of a "changed value" is
(non-poster item) the
> Batman 1966 Milton bradley board game. during
the 80's-90's I used to sell
> this game for $150-200. I will never get
that price again because every
> week you can find 10 "Joe the closet
& garage cleaner" listing the same
> item on eBay and in the past
week alone 5 copies of teh game have sold for
> less than $10. (no
kidding, I looked) These sellers are not pros, they
> just
> want
to get what they can for whatever they find, regardless of any other
>
factors.
>
> I agree that 50's horror/scifi is very popular and
any fool knows that
> Universal stuff is great, but it just doesn't
reflect the hobby as a whole
> in any way what-so-ever.
>
>
I also agree that some dealers have made a business of devaluing
>
(unintentionally) 1000's of poster titles by making them so readily
>
available on a daily basis regardless of how many they have listed in
the
> last month. there are so many posters that we used to sell for
$100 that
> are only worth $10 today it is unbelievable. Consequently,
this devalues :
>
> A) our knowledge
> B) our
holdings
> C) our work
>
> any of you who are auto-workers
will recognize that as Chevy asking you to
> take a pay cut, eliminate
your health care and cutting back to a 25 hour
> work week which results
in the 2nd job at lower wages and less sleep for
> you each week.. Any
of you who think this is acceptable are fooling
>
yourselves.
>
> It's the same as owning stock in Microsoft at $100
and then it slowly
> descends to $10 over the next 2 years, decimating
your investment...
> This is exactly what is happening in the poster
hobby and to some degree
> the comic hobby. Comics has less of this
effect because the hobby is
> "controlled" by the price guide & by
the dealers who in large part refuse
> to undersell themselves, thereby
avoiding the "cut off your nose to spite
> your face" syndrome. Not to
mention the incestuous relationship between
> dealers, the price guide
& the collectors
>
> However in posters the price guides are
almost worthless as every dealers
> has his own "definition of value"
which itself avoids many of the
> conflicts
> apparent in comics,
but also results in no standardization what so ever
> beyond the top
valued items & areas of course.
>
> One benefit we have is
that posters sell to non-collectors as well,
> whereas
> comics
generally do not.
>
> I agree that eBay has had a largely downward
pricing effect on the large
> part of the hobby and about the lessening
of quality merch on eBay... well
> if you couldn't get full retail value
for quality material, why would you
> list it?? All I ever hear from
collectors is how they expect a return on
> their "investment" and they
want each bidder to pay all of their fees so
> they do achieve total
value on the item and how they will use reserves to
> protect their
investment, but conversely will not bid on reserve priced
> items
because they know the seller wants full value. Sounds like a double
>
standard to me
>
> Channing is a real gambler to me and a great
asset to teh hobby listing
> hundreds of GREAT posters at no reserve and
at low starting prices making
> his exposure to losses a reality, but
fortunately he has been able to do
> very well in that regard. It
doesn't make him any less of a gambler as
> that
> White Heat
1sheet could easily have sold for $50.
>
> But where does it put
the rest of us?
>
> Ebay has become anathema to our hobby because
now that anyone can become a
> seller and the high profile and the 15
million items listed daily... the
> free for all can only result in
degradation of the largest part of the
> hobby.
>
>
Rich============================
>
>
>
>
>
>
At 10:16 PM 10/7/04, Sean Linkenback wrote:
>> >----- Original
Message -----
>> >the terrible situation with our economy does not
help me to purchase
>> >more
>> >posters seeing how
poster prices have tumbled during the last three
>>
>years.
>>
>>I keep hearing people talking about the
dropping prices/crash/falling
>>prices
>>whatever you want
to call it.
>>Where exactly are these falling prices? On the
crap from films that no
>>one
>>has seen and no one
collects? I still see healthy prices for
quality
>>titles
>>across the
board.
>>
>>If anyone wants to sell me their Universal
horror pieces or quality 50s
>>sci-fi
>>at three years ago
pricing - please don't hesitate to contact me!
>>Heck I might even be
generous and go as high as last year's
prices.
>>
>>Seriously though I am ready and willing to
purchase Universal/Realart
>>Horror pieces - especially lobbies and
inserts (and please US pieces only,
>>NO foreign material
thanks).
>>
>>Sean
>>
>>
Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com
>>
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