David,
Good points... except I don't see how a Google auction site is going to be very
much different from eBay in any significant way, so what's the point? Breaking
up a marketplace that is already declining into two mega-auctions sites, when
the auction business on eBay is already slipping? Where's the growth potential?
eBay practically invented the field, took it over and mined it heavily and now
the vein is playing out. It seems like there isn't much left for Google, coming
this late to the table. Google is not likely to have any policies or fees on
its auction site that are very different fro eBay, are they? Won't it just be a
"Me too" auction site, perhaps offering slightly lower fees... which will cause
eBay to lower its fees... so that both companies make less and less? I don't
see how Google can generate any business that eBay is not already generating...
all it can do is siphon off a piece of the eBay pie (and as far as Wall Street
is concerned, that pie is already shrink!
ing). How is that going to be good for either eBay or Google -- at least as
far as their market financials and stock prices go? How many places does the
world need where it can go to bid on refrigerator magnets?
In some areas competition can lead to real innovation, new products and lower
prices. But I don't think the mega-online-auction-website field is one of those
areas.
It still think the future of internet auctions lies with specialized sites
focusing on a specific collectible market, be it coins, comics, movie posters,
art prints, antique dolls or whatever. I think more and more that the buyers
with specific interests will come to appreciate auction sites where all the
crap is kept out, category integrity is maintained and they can find stuff they
are genuinely interested in much more quickly and easily. There are now healthy
specialized auction sites in all areas of collecting, not just MPB, and they
are all entering the 2nd or 3rd year of operation and growing. Thinking of it
in the terms we might have used before the internet, if you're a movie poster
collector looking to purchase some nice new additions, would you go into the
nearest Wal Mart Super Center, or seek out a poster store?
The only reason so many movie posters sellers are on eBay now is because eBay
was first to exploit the idea of online auctions in a big way and so that's
where they all got started with online auctions and where for quite a while the
best market was. I think that will slowly change over time to where the
specialized auction site will become the more attractive venue for both buyers
and sellers.
By the way, I never saw any real reason for eBay to go public. They were
already bringing in more than enough money to fund operations and massive
expansion and pay hefty bonuses. It was simply a golden opportunity for the
founders and executives of eBay to become mega-Millionaires overnight and was
too good of a deal for them to pass up.
-- JR
----- Original Message -----
From: "David Kusumoto" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU>
Sent: Thursday, July 20, 2006 19:05
Subject: [MOPO] FW: EBAY has a Skewed Self -Image!
> ** What's puzzling is eBay has enough cash socked away that it no longer
> needs to be a publicly held company. Raising cash should no longer an issue
> but its purchase of Skype increased its debt load and stil looks like a risk
> to me.
>
> ** If eBay were NOT so beholden to stockholders and Wall Street, it could
> keep re-inventing itself without the pressure for non-stop quarterly reports
> and the urge to continually announce short-term profits.
>
> ** Many public companies pay lip service to being in things for the "long
> haul," executing strategies under the umbrella of "maintaining growth" over
> a 4-10 year time span, but it's a joke. Financial analysts -- many with a
> vested interest in certain securities -- keep pushing for non-stop returns
> at levels above the returns for money market funds. eBay's paper value is
> linked to its stock price and people will cash in when they sense a peak.
> It has one of the most admired business models -- and buyers will continue
> to use it -- but the peak is over. When a weakness is revealed, things
> tumble.
>
> ** Remember how eager people were to get in on the action when eBay it
> announced its first public stock offering? Institutional investors got
> first dibs, the first big chunk of shares, shutting out small investors.
> eBay will survive, but we remember the high flying days of AOL. Now the
> chiefs of AOL are finally pondering offering their service for FREE, cutting
> their losses, hoping ad revenue will keep AOL profitable on a smaller scale.
> That's where eBay could be heading if people really take "alternative
> sampling" seriously.
>
> ** Hence I admire Google and others trying to chip away. The only way
> things can get better is via free market competition. Buying Paypal was a
> no brainer. But now Google is going to cut into that with its own online
> payment service, which eBay has already said it won't allow as a feature in
> its auctions. eBay's purchase of Skype, meanwhile, looks (at least today),
> as one of those hare-brained moves in desperate need of better marketing.
>
> ** I agree with Claude that the world is better with eBay than without it,
> yet it doesn't preclude the real possibility that its dominance can be
> brought down quickly if it carries too much debt. Time Warner learned the
> hard way that no business model is immune forever. AOL was the biggest
> disaster in Time Warner history. If AOL is unable to recover from the
> rampant cancellations of its service, it will go by the way of Prodigy and
> others like it. An important but short-lived footnote in American business
> history.
>
> -koose.
>
> ----Original Message Follows----
>
> From: channinglylethomson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> Reply-To: channinglylethomson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> To: MoPo-L@LISTSERV.AMERICAN.EDU
> Subject: EBAY has a Skewed Self -Image!
> Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 15:45:35 -0700
>
> EBAY may want to bring back auctions as the main focus of their business but
> the reality is that, due to absurdly high auction listing and final sale
> fees on sellers, Paypal fees on sellers, and bored and spoilt buyers, the
> auction side of the equation is EFFECTIVELY DEAD. Maybe they can rub some
> garlic on it and it will rise from the grave!
>
> Channing Thomson in San Francisco
>
> Visit the MoPo Mailing List Web Site at www.filmfan.com
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