----- On Jul 22, 2019, at 5:54 PM, Owen DeLong o...@delong.com wrote: Hi Owen,
>> On Jul 21, 2019, at 12:28 , Sabri Berisha <sa...@cluecentral.net> wrote: >> Only when it becomes cheaper to go IPv6 than to use legacy V4 will V6 be >> adopted >> by large corporations. Well, the ones that are governed by beancounters >> instead >> of engineers. And by that time, I'll be charging $500/hr to assist $CORP with >> their IPv6 migration plans. > > I can guarantee you that Akamai is very much run by beancounters in addition > to > engineers. I have first hand experience with that. > > I can also assure you that it’s quite unlikely that any of Comcast, Netflix, > Facebook, Google, AT&T, T-Mobile, or Verizon just to name a few of the biggest > are managed without due consideration of input from the bean counters. (I’d > bet > at each of those companies, the day that engineer beats beancounter in a > disagreement is rare, indeed). Sure! Facebook and Google were (are, I can only presume) still dominated by engineers, not beancounters. The other companies you mentioned have little choice; they are consumer ISPs and are faced with a simple truth: IPv6 or a line-item for "IPv4 purchase" on the budget. > The problem with the approach you are taking to IPv6 cost-benefit analysis is > that your claim of no ROI doesn’t actually hold true. It does, it just depends on the organization. And don't get me wrong, you're preaching to the choir here. I am very much in favor of deploying v6. I just have had and still have a hard time getting the resources to do so. As long as the vast majority eyeballs have IPv4, whether via NAT or native, non-subscriber platforms will be able to function. deploying IPv6 is seen as one of the "cool" projects, not a "business critical" one. Facebook and Google were founded at a time where IPv6 was hot and on engineers' radar. Their networks were built from scratch with IPv6 and scalability in mind, and beancounters don't rule those orgs. Here is how I imagine things go at Comcast etc: Comcast Engineer: we need IPv6, will cost $bagsofmoney. Comcast Beancounter: impossible. What's the justification? Comcast Engineer: we will run out of IPv4 and will be unable to add subscribers, and thus grow, and thus increase our marketshare. Comcast Beancounter: approved. Here is how things go in my experience: Content Engineer: we need IPv6, will cost $bagsofmoney. Content Beancounter: impossible. What's the justification? Content Engineer: well, sometime in the future someone will deprecate IPv4 and all eyeballs will only have IPv6. Content Beancounter: when is that going to happen? Content Engineer: I don't know, for now they're using dual stack and all kinds of translation mechanisms. Content Beancounter: come back when it becomes a necessity instead of a luxury. I had that conversation in multiple organizations. According to Google, https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html, even today among the eyeballs the adoption rate is a poor 30%. And that graph is not looking like a hockey stick either. It's still very much a chicken and egg problem, in a lot of networks. Unless we come up with a real hard deadline (like we had with y2k), there will always be organizations that won't make the investment. It's either that or wait for a natural tech-refresh, like we've been doing for the last 20 years. Sad, but so far this has been my experience. And again, I wish that things were different. Let's pick 6/6/2026 as IPv4 shutdown day. Thanks, Sabri JNCIE #261