I did this "economics" exercise for a customer having 25.000.000 customers 
(DSL, GPON and cellular). Even updating/replacing the CPEs, the cost of 464XLAT 
deployment was cheaper than CGN or anything else.

Also, if you consider the cost of buying more IPv4 addresses instead of 
investing that money in CGN, you avoid CGN troubles (like black listening your 
IPv4 addresses by Sony and others and the consequently operation/management 
expenses to rotate IPv4 addresses in the CGN, resolve customers problems, 
etc.), it becomes cheaper than CGN boxes.

It's easy to predict that you will buy now CGN and tomorrow you will need to 
buy some new IPv4 addresses because that black listening.

Regards,
Jordi
@jordipalet
 
 

El 24/2/21 3:13, "NANOG en nombre de Owen DeLong via NANOG" 
<nanog-bounces+jordi.palet=consulintel...@nanog.org en nombre de 
nanog@nanog.org> escribió:



    > On Feb 22, 2021, at 6:44 AM, na...@jima.us wrote:
    > 
    > While I don't doubt the accuracy of Lee's presentation at the time, at 
least two base factors have changed since then:
    > 
    > - Greater deployment of IPv6 content (necessitating less CGN capacity per 
user)

    This is only true if the ISP in question is implementing IPv6 along side 
their CGN deployment and only if they get a significant uptake of IPv6 
capability by their end users.

    > - Increased price of Legacy IP space on the secondary market (changing 
the formula) -- strictly speaking, this presentation was still in "primary 
market" era for LACNIC/ARIN/AFRINIC

    While that’s true, even at current prices, IPv4 addresses are cheaper to 
buy and/or lease than CGN.

    > IPv6 migration is not generally aided by CGNAT, but CGNAT deployment is 
generally aided by IPv6 deployment; to reiterate the earlier point, any ISPs 
deploying CGNAT without first deploying IPv6 are burning cash.

    Yep.

    I still think that implementing CGN is a good way to burn cash vs. the 
alternatives, but YMMV.

    Owen

    > 
    > - Jima
    > 
    > From: NANOG On Behalf Of Owen DeLong
    > Sent: Sunday, February 21, 2021 16:59
    > To: Steve Saner
    > Cc: nanog@nanog.org
    > Subject: Re: CGNAT
    > 
    > 
    > On Feb 18, 2021, at 8:38 AM, Steve Saner wrote:
    > 
    >> We are starting to look at CGNAT solutions. The primary motivation at 
the moment is to extend current IPv4 resources, but IPv6 migration is also a 
factor.
    > 
    > IPv6 Migration is generally not aided by CGNAT.
    > 
    > In general, the economics today still work out to make purchasing or 
leasing addresses more favorable than CGNAT.
    > 
    > It’s a bit dated by now, but still very relevant, see Lee Howard’s 
excellent research presented at the 2012 Rocky
    > mountain v6 task force meeting:
    > 
    > https://www.rmv6tf.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/TCO-of-CGN1.pdf
    > 
    > Owen
    > 
    > 
    > We've been in touch with A10. Just wondering if there are some 
alternative vendors that anyone would recommend. We'd probably be looking at a 
solution to support 5k to 15k customers and bandwidth up to around 30-40 gig as 
a starting point. A solution that is as transparent to user experience as 
possible is a priority.
    > 
    > Thanks
    > 
    > -- 
    > Steve Saner
    > ideatek HUMAN AT OUR VERY FIBER
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