On Oct 19, 2010, at 4:25 AM, Ben Butler wrote:

> Hi,
> 
> Another way of looking at it would be what would the world population need to 
> be in order to exhaust all of the space v6 based on /48s /56s or /64s per 
> head / household - and is this population number ever going to happen in what 
> time conceivable time frame.
> 
> Another interesting calculation would be to divide the land mass area by that 
> population figure - let alone the habital area.
> 
> 2 to 48 = 281,474,976,710,658 or 280K Billion separate /48s assignments.
> 
> (Current world population 6.7 Billion forecast 14 Billion in 2100)
> 
> World Landmass (Total All Areas): 148.94 million sq km
> 
> So Each Person at the point of IPv6 exhaustion will have 0.53 sq meters to 
> stand on while using all their IPv6 devices.
> 
> I think it is safe to say that the world will be facing other more 
> significant problems long long long before we get anywhere near having to 
> worry about running out of IPv6 space because we are assigning each 
> individual a /48.
> 
This does, of course, assume that the population remains earthbound beyond 2100.

I think that is not entirely likely.

> There are surely technical benefits from a routing perspective if all the end 
> user assignments are the same size - therefore should the technical 
> considerations here not override any argument about conservation of space 
> seeing as the above hopefully proves the fallacy of needing to conserve IPv6 
> address space????
> 
Yes... The technical considerations should override silly efforts to keep more 
than 99.99% of all IPv6 space in reserve
for some unprojected need since we have real projected needs for the 0.001% now.

Owen

> Ben
> 
> 
> 
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Robert E. Seastrom [mailto:r...@seastrom.com] 
> Sent: 19 October 2010 11:53
> To: George Bonser
> Cc: nanog@nanog.org
> Subject: Re: Definitive Guide to IPv6 adoption
> 
> 
> "George Bonser" <gbon...@seven.com> writes:
> 
>>> You are to be commended for your leadership in conserving space.  Our
>>> children will surely be grateful that thanks to your efforts they have
>>> 99.99999% of IPv6 space left to work with rather than the paltry
>>> 99.9975% that might have been their inheritance were it not for your
>>> efforts.  Bravo!
>> 
>> I have a feeling that IP addresses will now be used in ways that people
>> have not envisioned them being used before.  Given a surplus of any
>> resource, people find creative ways of using it. 
> 
> Which just reinforces the argument that we ought to give people /48s
> rather than /56es, /60s, or /64s even though those with a failure of
> imagination may not be able to figure out a reason anyone would need
> that much space.
> 
> -r
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
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> Ben Butler
> Director Tel: 0333 666 3332 
> Fax: 0333 666 3331
> C2 Business Networking Ltd
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