http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSL1274591220080312
EU risks setbacks in embracing Balkans Wed Mar 12, 2008 2:11pm EDT By Paul Taylor, European Affairs Editor - Analysis BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The magnet of European Union membership faces its toughest test in the Western Balkans in the coming weeks as nationalists and pro-Western forces struggle for the soul of the remnants of former Yugoslavia. For EU policymakers, the nightmare goes like this: Macedonia refuses to change its name and Greece blocks its bid for NATO membership; Kosovo is partitioned de facto between Albanians and Serbs and becomes another frozen conflict; Serbia turns its back on the EU and elects a nationalist government. "This worst-case scenario could be reality by the summer," said Gerald Knaus, a Balkans analyst and president of the European Stability Initiative think tank. In a drive to avoid that outcome, EU and United Nations officials are using the tools at their disposal -- diplomacy, money for regional cooperation projects, the prospect of visa-free travel and the power of emulation of the most advanced former Yugoslav republics. EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn said this week he hoped every Western Balkan country would make progress on the road to European integration this year. Slovenia, the only former Yugoslav republic to join the EU so far, has invited foreign ministers from all the Western Balkans countries to join their 27 EU counterparts to discuss closer ties at an informal meeting later this month. OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO Croatia, which has started membership negotiations, should receive a boost once its parliament removes a key obstacle by suspending a fisheries protection zone that barred vessels from EU neighbors Italy and Slovenia from its waters. Macedonia, granted candidate status in 2006, is keen to get a start date for its accession talks. EU officials are working behind the scenes to help a U.N. mediator solve the name dispute with Greece, which wants Skopje to take a different name from its own northern province, diplomats say. They are hopeful of a deal before the April 2-4 NATO summit. Bosnia could sign a first agreement on closer ties with the EU next month provided parliament adopts a police reform law, and Serbia could do the same if pro-European forces win a parliamentary election due in May. Montenegro signed its first accord with Brussels last year and some EU officials say Bosnia, Albania and Montenegro could submit applications for membership in the coming months, possibly in a symbolic joint act. That is the optimistic scenario. But Balkan analysts fear Brussels may be indulging in wishful thinking and point to the risk of contagion from the Kosovo conflict. "We have to deal with the option that the EU's transformative power doesn't work for all. There may be political elites who are not in a rush to hasten the process of European integration," said Jacques Rupnik, a Balkans expert at France's Institute of Political Science (Sciences-Po). CONCERN AT SIGNS OF "SOFT PARTITION" While EU and NATO officials are relieved there has been little violence since Kosovo seceded from Serbia on February 17 and threats of economic sanctions or an energy cut-off have not materialized, they are worried at signs of a "soft partition". EU foreign ministers called on Monday for the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) to maintain a presence right up to the Serbian border in areas populated by minority Serbs from which international officials had withdrawn for security reasons. EU officials speaking on condition of anonymity acknowledge the risk of a split between a Serb "UNMIK-land" from which the EU is barred and an EU-supervised, independent Albanian Kosovo -- with no prospect of a handover from UNMIK to EU supervision because Russia would block it at the United Nations. While more than half the 27 EU member states have recognized Kosovo, wider international acceptance has been slow and some EU officials fear Latin American states may follow Spain's lead in refusing recognition without a U.N. Security Council resolution. The EU's biggest concern, and the one over which it may have the least influence, is the prospect that embittered Serbs, alienated by EU backing for Kosovo's secession, could vote for hardline nationalists in May. Strong EU coaxing helped pro-European Serbian President Boris Tadic to a narrow victory over a radical nationalist rival in a presidential election on February 3, but relations have since deteriorated over Kosovo. Senior EU officials and foreign ministers have been told they would not be welcome for now in Belgrade, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said this week. That leaves the EU with few levers to influence the vote, especially as the Dutch and Belgians continue to block the signing of an agreement with Serbia until it makes progress on handing over war crimes indictees. "You can't push on a rope," one senior EU policymaker said, warning that another attempt to micromanage Serbian politics could backfire on Brussels. (Editing by Timothy Heritage)
