Only a European cure can alleviate Balkan depression
By Ivan Krastev
Commentary by
Friday, November 27, 2009
European politics is mostly shaped by events and anniversaries. But while
events are often unforeseeable, anniversaries are not. Five years from now,
Europe will be reflecting on the 100th anniversary of the outbreak of World
War I, which led to a loss of life almost without parallel and set in motion
a chain of events that led to the creation of Europe as we now know it.
World leaders may have already reserved some days in August 2014 to mark the
occasion. It is easy to predict that Sarajevo will be the place where they
will meet to look back on Europe’s savage 20th century. But how will
Sarajevo look in five years time? Will it still be the capital of a country
whose citizens view the future bleakly and whose politicians have totally
lost touch with their electorate? Or is there a hope that European leaders
will use the anniversary to announce the successful integration of the
remaining Balkan countries into the European Union?
A Balkan Monitor survey recently conducted by Gallup Europe gives an
indication of the mood of public opinion in Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia,
Albania, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo 20 years on from the
fall of the Berlin Wall and a decade after the end of the Kosovo war. The
findings seem to indicate that the next five years will be a make-or-break
period for the region’s future development.
While the overwhelming majority of citizens are convinced that further armed
conflict in the region is unlikely, the public’s mood – with the exception
of the Kosovars and the Albanians – is pessimistic. The future promises
peace without development. Trust in political elites and in national and
European institutions has been steadily declining.
The majority of citizens have experienced a decline in living standards over
the past year, and there remains a perception that people have more
opportunities outside their own countries. Pessimism about employment is
alarmingly high among young people, while corruption and government
mismanagement are regarded as being widespread.
All those who have made it their job to praise the stability in the region
should look at these figures. Indeed, it is striking that the majority of
citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina believe that their leaders are not
interested in their country joining the European Union. An absolute majority
of citizens in each of the surveyed countries are convinced that their
country is heading in the wrong direction. Less than one in 10 Croats (whose
country could be joining the EU in the near future) believes that their
country is heading in the right direction.
There are now two options for the region: one is a “shock integration”
program that takes all of the Western Balkan states into the EU; the other
is a journey into the unknown. The hope that these countries can muddle
through on their own is a dangerous illusion. Stability alone can no longer
be the EU’s only objective in the region.
The EU’s continuing presence as a colonial power in places like Bosnia and
Herzegovina and Kosovo could cause even more problems in the future,
especially if the benefits of this are not forthcoming. In particular, a
delay in Serbia’s integration into the EU could bring Tito-inspired
fantasies to the heart of the country’s foreign and security policy.
Thus, the demoralization of Balkan society creates a dynamic of its own in
which the best and the brightest see their future outside of their own
countries and where “stability” is just another name for political and
economic stagnation.
If European leaders do plan to meet in 2014 in Sarajevo, they should act
now. The ratification of the Lisbon Treaty allows for an element of
visionary realism in European politics, as there are no longer any
institutional obstacles to the future enlargement of the EU.
Today, unlike a year ago, we know how many states are in the Balkans, and
the Balkan Monitor results show that all of them want to join the European
Union. What the EU has learned from the results of the last parliamentary
elections in Bulgaria is that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the leverage
of Brussels over new member states increases rather than diminishes after
they join. The EU’s decision to liberalize its visa regime for Serbia,
Montenegro, and Macedonia – and the fact that George Papandreou, the major
architect of the EU’s Balkan integration strategy, is back in power in
Greece – is another source of optimism.
However, it is now or never for the Balkans. Visa liberalization can be a
strategic step in the direction of “shock integration,” but if it is not
followed by bold political action from the European Union, it could merely
become a re-packaging of the status quo. In short, the moment has arrived
for shaping events instead of simply marking anniversaries.
Ivan Krastev, currently a visiting fellow at the Institut fur die
Wissenschaften vom Menschen in Vienna, was the executive director of the
International Commission on the Balkans chaired by Giuliano Amato. THE DAILY
STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with Project Syndicate ©
(www.project-syndicate.org).
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