I know. I can only keep it up for so long. Just quickly analysing what will be required:
Looking back over the last few seasons, this is actually a really weak season. I know it seems obvious, but when the teams at the top are really good then there are fewer crumbs for the teams at the bottom to pick up. We've got used to a Big 4 but now there are a lot of really good teams. Man City and Spurs are picking up a lot more points now than they used to, as well as the traditional Big 4 My brief, drunk analysis suggests that: (a) the more points the top teams get the fewer are required to stay up. Specifically the more points that the top 7 teams get, the fewer are required to stay up. (b) there's a simple rule of thumb that says at this stage of the season, the eventual team that stays up will have 1.5 times the number of points that the team in 17th now has. The highest this ratio has been is 1.56:1 That's simple maths but it's borne out by actual results. Seems that teams don't get much better or worse over the last third of the season. That suggests that a team should stay up with 33 points this season. We just need to hold our current points ratio and we should be OK. On 28 February 2012 21:05, Marcus Chantry <chant...@iinet.net.au> wrote: > Oh no, now Steve's losing his optimism... what's going on? > > > On 28/02/2012, at 20:59 , Steven Millward wrote: > > I'm not sure I'd be that optimistic. > > On 28 February 2012 20:56, Rog & Reet <rognr...@exemail.com.au> wrote: > >> My brain and eyewear this evening is a bottle of Prickly Moses IPA.**** >> >> ** ** >> >> Fulham 1 >> Blackburn 3 >> Man U 1 >> Norwich 1 >> Bolton 3 >> Stoke 1 >> Arsenal 0 >> Sunderland 1 >> Man City 0 >> Swansea 1 >> Everton 3 >> Wigan 1**** >> >> ** ** >> >> Total 16, overall 38 and just safe.**** >> >> ** ** >> >> ** ** >> >> ** ** >> >> *From:* nswolves@googlegroups.com [mailto:nswolves@googlegroups.com] *On >> Behalf Of *Paul Crowe >> >> *Sent:* Tuesday, 28 February 2012 3:24 PM >> *To:* nswolves@googlegroups.com >> *Subject:* [NSWolves] Remaining games / points prediction.**** >> >> ** ** >> >> Hello fellow Wolves tragics!**** >> >> ** ** >> >> I have put on the “Roger rose tinted glasses” and confidently forecast >> the following:**** >> >> ** ** >> >> Fulham 1 >> Blackburn 3 >> Man U 0 >> Norwich 1 >> Bolton 3 >> Stoke 0 >> Arsenal 0 >> Sunderland 3 >> Man City 0 >> Swansea 3 >> Everton 3 >> Wigan 3**** >> >> ** ** >> >> 20 points!! We will be safe.**** >> >> ** ** >> >> Realistically, if we can win all our games against Blackburn, Bolton and >> Wigan we should have a great chance of staying up. **** >> >> ** ** >> >> Paul Crowe**** >> >> Sales Manager - Asia Pacific**** >> >> **** >> >> ConTech (Sydney Office)**** >> >> **** >> >> PO Box 3517**** >> >> Rhodes Waterside**** >> >> Rhodes NSW 2138**** >> >> Tel: 02 97396636 Fax: 02 97396542**** >> >> Mob: 0406009562**** >> >> Email: pcr...@contechengineering.com**** >> >> Website: www.contechengineering.com**** >> >> ** ** >> >> -- >> Boo! Curbishley out!**** >> >> -- >> Boo! Curbishley out! >> > > > -- > Boo! Curbishley out! > > > -- > Boo! Curbishley out! > -- Boo! Curbishley out!
