I hope and believe you're exactly right, Alexander. If we're wrong, we're doomed anyway. Many people in the U.S. and around the world believed in the 1930's that the Nazis were right, some others that Stalin was right. Thanks to some crazy and stubborn people in the middle, we managed to destroy those forces. As that terrible plagiarist played by Jeff Glodblum said in Jurrassic Park, "nature will have its way." It looks like this will turn out ok, if not we'll not be around to have this kind of discussion.
-- Fergal Byrne, Brenter IT Author, Real Machine Intelligence with Clortex and NuPIC https://leanpub.com/realsmartmachines Speaking on Clortex and HTM/CLA at euroClojure Krakow, June 2014: http://euroclojure.com/2014/ and at LambdaJam Chicago, July 2014: http://www.lambdajam.com http://inbits.com - Better Living through Thoughtful Technology http://ie.linkedin.com/in/fergbyrne/ - https://github.com/fergalbyrne e:[email protected] t:+353 83 4214179 Join the quest for Machine Intelligence at http://numenta.org Formerly of Adnet [email protected] http://www.adnet.ie On Mon, May 25, 2015 at 7:18 PM, Alexander Kettinen <[email protected]> wrote: > If machines do 100% of the jobs, including farming, mining, construction > and production of goods at an superior pace with just cheap electric energy > as input, what would that do to the price/value of the goods and services > provided? It would approach zero. > Whatever happens it will liberate humans from labor, some people whom have > built their entire identity and self image around their work role will > struggle and feel threatened. Most folks will be alright though and enjoy > their new freedoms. > There is no value in working just for works sake (they tried that in Soviet > with people digging holes and other people filling in the holes and then > repeating the process). > My serious take on this is that it will go one of two ways, either the > Wall-E way that we become passive and cuddled like fat babies, or the star > trek way that people will be allowed to use their time on earth to fulfill > their thirst for knowledge or experience. The Terminator way can and will > not happen. > The society in star trek did not magically evolve into existence without > suffering or pain, change is pain and change is inevitable. > no pain, no gain. > Alex > 2015-05-25 19:46 GMT+02:00 Fergal Byrne <[email protected]>: >> Just on the substantive points: >> >> First, as Jeff says the biggest danger is about self-replication. In >> biology, the simplest machines which can self-replicate are viruses. Each >> one is just the right key which fits in some DNA-generated lock. There >> couldn't be less intelligence, but purely mathematically there couldn't be >> more danger. A single virus could exist which destroys all complex life on >> Earth and sends us back 3 billion years. >> >> The second part of this idea is that you'd have people develop some kind >> of "breed" of self-replicating and self-improving AIs who decide that we're >> a waste of their resources and should be eradicated. This is a very >> unlikely scenario. Anything that was so much smarter than us would, as in >> my hero Iain M Banks' "Culture", most likely decide to keep us around as >> profound curiosities, just as they tolerate one another's oddness. After >> all (once we got through the 20th century), intelligences as dumb and >> biological as we have decided that diversity is something we regard as an >> ideal. >> >> The second issue is something less "scary" but perhaps more thorny. This >> is the shift we'll have to make in our economic and social structures when >> we have machines to replace almost everyone's job. We are looking at >> effectively 100% unemployment, if you measure that by people doing things >> they don't want to do in return for someone else's money (representing >> something we want that they have). This is not going to work when we can >> just build a machine to do a person's "job" so we're going to have to do >> everything in some new way. I have no clue how that will happen, but my >> hope is that it's like Star Trek, or (some of) the Culture. That's perhaps >> what these futurists should be concerned about. >> >> Fergal >> >> -- >> >> Fergal Byrne, Brenter IT >> >> Author, Real Machine Intelligence with Clortex and NuPIC >> https://leanpub.com/realsmartmachines >> >> Speaking on Clortex and HTM/CLA at euroClojure Krakow, June 2014: >> http://euroclojure.com/2014/ >> and at LambdaJam Chicago, July 2014: http://www.lambdajam.com >> >> http://inbits.com - Better Living through Thoughtful Technology >> http://ie.linkedin.com/in/fergbyrne/ - https://github.com/fergalbyrne >> >> e:[email protected] t:+353 83 4214179 >> Join the quest for Machine Intelligence at http://numenta.org >> Formerly of Adnet [email protected] http://www.adnet.ie >> >> >> On Mon, May 25, 2015 at 5:04 PM, cogmission (David Ray) < >> [email protected]> wrote: >> >>> This was someone's response to Jeff's interview (see here: >>> https://www.facebook.com/fareedzakaria/posts/10152703985901330) >>> >>> Please read and comment if you feel the need... >>> >>> Cheers, >>> David >>> >>> -- >>> *With kind regards,* >>> >>> David Ray >>> Java Solutions Architect >>> >>> *Cortical.io <http://cortical.io/>* >>> Sponsor of: HTM.java <https://github.com/numenta/htm.java> >>> >>> [email protected] >>> http://cortical.io >>> >> >>
