Hello NuPIC,
I've got weather data that looks like this [1] for every day for the
past several years. I'm trying to correlate this weather data with the
number of 311 calls made in the same area over time. I'm swarming over
a selection of weather input fields and the debris call count [2].
Weather certainly should contribute somehow to people calling for tree
debris pickup.
So far, I have swarmed twice with the following results.
#1 included "rain", "snow", "precip", and "max wind speed" and the
field contributions looked like this:
Field Contributions:
{ u'debris': 30.163726239876382,
u'maxwspd': -1.373108683713905,
u'precip': 2.1176366006787224,
u'rain': 0.0,
u'snow': -3.0830847929189784,
u'timestamp_dayOfWeek': 32.13034654690986,
u'timestamp_timeOfDay': 3.9764609868384224,
u'timestamp_weekend': 15.442651796208624}
The best model params returned only encoded "debris" and day of week /
weekend. I expected "max wind speed" to contribute much more to debris
calls.
#2 included "hail", "mean wind speed", "temperature variation", and
"precip". The field contributions after swarming looked like this:
Field Contributions:
{ u'debris': 28.19563250430966,
u'hail': 1.7711291936725424,
u'meanwindspdm': -6.274956215526072,
u'precip': 0.0,
u'tempvariation': -6.395026451990224,
u'timestamp_dayOfWeek': 30.21767519999757,
u'timestamp_timeOfDay': 1.2703697906231544,
u'timestamp_weekend': 13.05969551380973}
Still, it seems that wind and temperature variation do not contribute
to better predictions of debris calls. You can see all my code and CSV
data I am swarming over here:
https://github.com/rhyolight/multivariate-example
So, a couple of questions I have now are:
1. How do I interpret the "Field Contributions"? How are those number
calculated?
2. What am I doing wrong? Weather certainly does contribute to 311
Tree Debris calls in the real world. Is my data not good enough?
[1] https://gist.github.com/rhyolight/5631429c950529a7c947
[2]
https://github.com/rhyolight/multivariate-example/blob/master/weather_debris_data.csv
Thanks in advance,
---------
Matt Taylor
OS Community Flag-Bearer
Numenta
