I'm no expert on swarming, not used it yet. But one thing that did stand out in my mind was the snow value. Heavy snow, of maybe a few days at a time, 'should' tie in with 311 calls. Should the data be swarmed per season, or break down to summer & autumn and winter & spring swarms?
On Fri, Oct 9, 2015 at 1:49 AM, Matthew Taylor <[email protected]> wrote: > Hello NuPIC, > > I've got weather data that looks like this [1] for every day for the > past several years. I'm trying to correlate this weather data with the > number of 311 calls made in the same area over time. I'm swarming over > a selection of weather input fields and the debris call count [2]. > Weather certainly should contribute somehow to people calling for tree > debris pickup. > > So far, I have swarmed twice with the following results. > > #1 included "rain", "snow", "precip", and "max wind speed" and the > field contributions looked like this: > > Field Contributions: > { u'debris': 30.163726239876382, > u'maxwspd': -1.373108683713905, > u'precip': 2.1176366006787224, > u'rain': 0.0, > u'snow': -3.0830847929189784, > u'timestamp_dayOfWeek': 32.13034654690986, > u'timestamp_timeOfDay': 3.9764609868384224, > u'timestamp_weekend': 15.442651796208624} > > The best model params returned only encoded "debris" and day of week / > weekend. I expected "max wind speed" to contribute much more to debris > calls. > > #2 included "hail", "mean wind speed", "temperature variation", and > "precip". The field contributions after swarming looked like this: > > Field Contributions: > { u'debris': 28.19563250430966, > u'hail': 1.7711291936725424, > u'meanwindspdm': -6.274956215526072, > u'precip': 0.0, > u'tempvariation': -6.395026451990224, > u'timestamp_dayOfWeek': 30.21767519999757, > u'timestamp_timeOfDay': 1.2703697906231544, > u'timestamp_weekend': 13.05969551380973} > > Still, it seems that wind and temperature variation do not contribute > to better predictions of debris calls. You can see all my code and CSV > data I am swarming over here: > https://github.com/rhyolight/multivariate-example > > So, a couple of questions I have now are: > > 1. How do I interpret the "Field Contributions"? How are those number > calculated? > 2. What am I doing wrong? Weather certainly does contribute to 311 > Tree Debris calls in the real world. Is my data not good enough? > > [1] https://gist.github.com/rhyolight/5631429c950529a7c947 > [2] > https://github.com/rhyolight/multivariate-example/blob/master/weather_debris_data.csv > > Thanks in advance, > --------- > Matt Taylor > OS Community Flag-Bearer > Numenta > >
