--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "mbahqu" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Isu yg beredar, SPO BLTA mundur dari rencana Oktober 2006.
> Apa ada yg punya info yg melengkapi ?
>
kayaknya nggak , ini saya lampirkan report punya DBS
�� Story: Proposed offering in SGX has been amended, canceling
the issuance 5% new shares, such that the offering would only
comprise of treasury shares of up to 410m shares, and possibly in
conjunction with placement of founder shares.
�� Point: This should have no impact at all, as the objective of
secondary listing is to unlock its book value rather than to raise
more capital.
�� Relevance: We maintain our Strong Buy rating on BLTA with
target price of IDR3,000, with further catalyst beside the imminent
secondary listing - of robust q-o-q improvement in the 3Q financial
performance, as strong recovery in oil tanker rates has been
evidenced from its lows in the 2Q, and renewed contract prices for
chemical tankers effective in this quarter. We share the company's
view of bullish chemical rates in 07 given expected shift of
significant cargo volumes to higher grade IMO II chemical vessels on
the back of new regulations.
What are the changes? The company has amended its proposed
offering in the SGX, eliminating the issuance of 5% new shares
without pre-emptive rights, thus the initial offering would only
come from the treasury stocks arising from current buyback
program of up to 410m shares (10% of total outstanding) and
possibly in conjunction with placement of founder shares of
another 410m shares. This is good news in our view, as previously
the company has been at odds with the stock exchange authority,
as traditionally the 5% new shares issuance is allocated for a
private placement with a 12-month lock up period, instead of a
public offering.
Why the secondary listing? Worthy of note is that the objective of
the secondary listing is to 1) unlock company's book value, as
assets would be marked to market (FY06 P/BV should drop to
estimated 1.4x from current 2.7x), thus allowing BLTA to further
leverage for its expansion, and 2) obtain more favorable
valuations by expanding its audience base, rather than an exercise
to re-capitalize. BLTA's cash position is strong as the company
should receive around USD135m in cash arising from the sale-
andleaseback
of three chemical tankers, booking extraordinary gain
of USD54m, thus lending a hand to its expansion plan particularly
as BLTA has entered the new FPSO business segment.
Nevertheless, there is potential gain to be made from the offering
of the treasury stocks, assuming average buyback price of
IDR2,300/share, there is c.IDR41bn potential gain or 3% of 06 net
profits.
How much can we expect? We understand that the secondary listing is
imminent, with book
building likely to be carried out by the end of this month and the
actual listing by mid next month.
The company is said to aim for 9.0x PER for the offering compared to
current valuation of 6.7x FY07
PER. We think 8.0x PER is more likely and should be achievable,
translating to share price of IDR2,400
around SGD41cents or 18% upside from the current market price.
Supporting the share price
would be the current buyback program in place, of which the company
has only completed c.100m
shares or c.25% of allowed numbers of shares to be bought back
thus another 300m shares still
outstanding.
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