Pointnya adalah time to INVEST !! soalnya kegiatan bursa saham selalu
mendahalui kurva pertumbuhan ekonomi
Dario Amran
--- Pada Sel, 13/1/09, Vic <victor_speran...@yahoo.com> menulis:
Dari: Vic <victor_speran...@yahoo.com>
Topik: [obrolan-bandar] Indonesia On The Move
Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Tanggal: Selasa, 13 Januari, 2009, 7:20 AM
Indonesia On The Move
Carl Delfeld, 12.25.08, 05:00 PM EST
Forbes Magazine dated January 12, 2009
Given sound management in recent years, Indonesia entered the current
turmoil in a strong position.
It was a terrible year for emerging markets in 2008. To put things
into perspective, the outflows from emerging markets exceeded $50
billion as the year wound down, compared with total inflows of $95
billion from 2003--07, according to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research.
These markets have paid a heavy price as foreign investors liquidate
positions, especially in markets considered more risky than home markets.
But consider Indonesia--below the radar screen of most global
investors despite a sterling performance in 2006 and 2007. With real
GDP of $840 billion and a population of 240 million, Indonesia quietly
accounts for two-fifths of ASEAN's population and one-third of its
GDP. The nation's debt-to-GDP ratio has been declining, its foreign
exchange reserves are at a robust $48 billion, and its stock market
was one of the three best performers in the world in 2006 and 2007.
(2008, however, was brutal, as the fortunes on our recent list of
Indonesia's 40 Richest took a beating.)
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati is seen as the face of the new
Indonesia, a reformer who has tried to bring transparency to the
financial sector and rid the country of graft and waste, no small
order after decades of corruption. The government passed a new
investment law in March 2007 and has initiated tax and customs
reforms, introduced Treasury bills and improved capital market
supervision. Randy Salim, spokesman for the World Bank in Jakarta,
states that "given sound macroeconomic management in recent years,
Indonesia entered the current phase of market turmoil in a strong
position." One sign of strength: Conglomerate Lippo Group recently
announced that it was going to invest $500 million in distressed real
estate in Europe and the U.S.
The key perception of Indonesia is that it is heavily dependent on
commodity prices. But the Indonesian economy seems to be holding up
rather well, despite the commodity meltdown, with GDP up by 6.1% in
the year through the third quarter. What about next year? Finance
Minister Mulyani recently predicted that economic growth could cool to
about 5% (even that number may be optimistic). As a significant
exporter of commodities, it will be squeezed by falling prices, but
keep in mind that Indonesia's total exports are equivalent to only 30%
of its GDP, while for Malaysia the figure is 95%. Looking ahead,
Indonesia seems nicely placed to benefit from the inevitable rise in
commodity prices as the cycle turns.
And don't forget politics. Freedom House, an American think tank, now
rates Indonesia as the only completely free country in Southeast Asia,
only 11 years after Suharto's fall. It has developed a free press and
minimized military involvement in politics, and in 2009 some 175
million voters across 17,000 tropical islands will choose a president,
a vice president and 560 parliamentarians. (One thing to watch in the
long term: A new Indonesian law favoring local mining companies is
scaring away big foreign miners.)
Attracting private investors to build out badly needed infrastructure
for the world's fourth-most- populous nation is another top priority.
Less than 53% of Indonesians have access to electricity; 27% have
access to piped water; 43% of the workforce is engaged in agriculture.
The nation requires $140 billion of infrastructure investment over the
next ten years. The government can finance only 40% of this amount;
the balance of funds must come from the private sector. According to
Edward Gustely, senior adviser to the Indonesian Ministry of Finance,
one example of progress on this front is the Indonesia Clean
Technology Fund, the first private equity fund of its kind with the
participation of the Indonesian government that aims to mobilize
private capital for investing in such things as alternative energy,
water treatment and agritechnology.
Investors seem to be looking ahead as Jakarta's market is surging off
a bottom. Tying into the infrastructure theme is the well-positioned
Telekomunikasi Indonesia ($0.65, TLKM: Jakarta)-- a company that has
explosive growth potential, as only 40% of Indonesians have mobile
phones. The company has bounced off its low and still offers good
value, a strong balance sheet and sports a nice 6% dividend. An
excellent play on clean energy and Indonesia's proven natural reserves
is pt Perusahaan Gas Negara ($0.20, PGAS: Jakarta), which has roots
going back to 1859. Gas Negara's net profits for the first nine months
of 2008 were up 56% compared with the same period in 2007.
Those investors looking for an even broader play should look at the
Indonesian Fund (IF) managed by Credit Suisse (nyse: CS - news -
people ) Asset Management. While down 60% so far in 2008, if has also
come to life recently but still trades at a 12% discount to its net
asset value.
Indonesia is on the move, get on board.
Carl Delfeld represented the U.S. on the Asian Development Bank board
and heads the global investment advisory firm Chartwell Partners
(www.ChartwellAdvis or.com).
http://www.forbes. com/global/ 2009/0112/ 076.html? partner=yahoomag
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