mau tanya nih..... Apakah ada data yang menunjukan kalau kegiatan bursa SELALU mendahului ekonomi ??
Kalau saya back track ke belakang. Bottom reversal terjadi ketika bursa ketinggalan dengan ekonomi. Jadi ekonomi rebound duluan... stabil baru bursa bisa balik ke atas. Check aja indonesia 2003. Kenapa bottom indonesia di 2003 bukan 1998 Bukankah krisis terjadi di 1998. GPB indonesia tahun 1997 minus lho. Sejak itu tidak pernah minus lagi Mau check per saham.. coba lihat PGAS PTBA 2004.. harganya ketinggalan sekali dengan fundamentalnya. Mungkin ada yang bisa kasih contoh dimana kegiatan bursa mendahului ekonomi. Logika saya sih...bandar cuman mau kumpulin barang ketika harga saham sudah diskon dan ekonomi mulai membaik. CMIIW disclaimer on Halim On Tue, Jan 13, 2009 at 7:37 AM, dario kurniawan <darioamran1...@yahoo.co.id > wrote: > Pointnya adalah time to INVEST !! soalnya kegiatan bursa saham selalu > mendahalui kurva pertumbuhan ekonomi > > Dario Amran > > --- Pada *Sel, 13/1/09, Vic <victor_speran...@yahoo.com>* menulis: > > Dari: Vic <victor_speran...@yahoo.com> > Topik: [obrolan-bandar] Indonesia On The Move > Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Tanggal: Selasa, 13 Januari, 2009, 7:20 AM > > Indonesia On The Move > Carl Delfeld, 12.25.08, 05:00 PM EST > Forbes Magazine dated January 12, 2009 > Given sound management in recent years, Indonesia entered the current > turmoil in a strong position. > > It was a terrible year for emerging markets in 2008. To put things > into perspective, the outflows from emerging markets exceeded $50 > billion as the year wound down, compared with total inflows of $95 > billion from 2003--07, according to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research. > These markets have paid a heavy price as foreign investors liquidate > positions, especially in markets considered more risky than home markets. > > But consider Indonesia--below the radar screen of most global > investors despite a sterling performance in 2006 and 2007. With real > GDP of $840 billion and a population of 240 million, Indonesia quietly > accounts for two-fifths of ASEAN's population and one-third of its > GDP. The nation's debt-to-GDP ratio has been declining, its foreign > exchange reserves are at a robust $48 billion, and its stock market > was one of the three best performers in the world in 2006 and 2007. > (2008, however, was brutal, as the fortunes on our recent list of > Indonesia's 40 Richest took a beating.) > > Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati is seen as the face of the new > Indonesia, a reformer who has tried to bring transparency to the > financial sector and rid the country of graft and waste, no small > order after decades of corruption. The government passed a new > investment law in March 2007 and has initiated tax and customs > reforms, introduced Treasury bills and improved capital market > supervision. Randy Salim, spokesman for the World Bank in Jakarta, > states that "given sound macroeconomic management in recent years, > Indonesia entered the current phase of market turmoil in a strong > position." One sign of strength: Conglomerate Lippo Group recently > announced that it was going to invest $500 million in distressed real > estate in Europe and the U.S. > > The key perception of Indonesia is that it is heavily dependent on > commodity prices. But the Indonesian economy seems to be holding up > rather well, despite the commodity meltdown, with GDP up by 6.1% in > the year through the third quarter. What about next year? Finance > Minister Mulyani recently predicted that economic growth could cool to > about 5% (even that number may be optimistic). As a significant > exporter of commodities, it will be squeezed by falling prices, but > keep in mind that Indonesia's total exports are equivalent to only 30% > of its GDP, while for Malaysia the figure is 95%. Looking ahead, > Indonesia seems nicely placed to benefit from the inevitable rise in > commodity prices as the cycle turns. > > And don't forget politics. Freedom House, an American think tank, now > rates Indonesia as the only completely free country in Southeast Asia, > only 11 years after Suharto's fall. It has developed a free press and > minimized military involvement in politics, and in 2009 some 175 > million voters across 17,000 tropical islands will choose a president, > a vice president and 560 parliamentarians. (One thing to watch in the > long term: A new Indonesian law favoring local mining companies is > scaring away big foreign miners.) > > Attracting private investors to build out badly needed infrastructure > for the world's fourth-most- populous nation is another top priority. > Less than 53% of Indonesians have access to electricity; 27% have > access to piped water; 43% of the workforce is engaged in agriculture. > The nation requires $140 billion of infrastructure investment over the > next ten years. The government can finance only 40% of this amount; > the balance of funds must come from the private sector. According to > Edward Gustely, senior adviser to the Indonesian Ministry of Finance, > one example of progress on this front is the Indonesia Clean > Technology Fund, the first private equity fund of its kind with the > participation of the Indonesian government that aims to mobilize > private capital for investing in such things as alternative energy, > water treatment and agritechnology. > > Investors seem to be looking ahead as Jakarta's market is surging off > a bottom. Tying into the infrastructure theme is the well-positioned > Telekomunikasi Indonesia ($0.65, TLKM: Jakarta)-- a company that has > explosive growth potential, as only 40% of Indonesians have mobile > phones. The company has bounced off its low and still offers good > value, a strong balance sheet and sports a nice 6% dividend. An > excellent play on clean energy and Indonesia's proven natural reserves > is pt Perusahaan Gas Negara ($0.20, PGAS: Jakarta), which has roots > going back to 1859. Gas Negara's net profits for the first nine months > of 2008 were up 56% compared with the same period in 2007. > > Those investors looking for an even broader play should look at the > Indonesian Fund (IF) managed by Credit Suisse (nyse: CS - news - > people ) Asset Management. While down 60% so far in 2008, if has also > come to life recently but still trades at a 12% discount to its net > asset value. > > Indonesia is on the move, get on board. > > Carl Delfeld represented the U.S. on the Asian Development Bank board > and heads the global investment advisory firm Chartwell Partners > (www.ChartwellAdvis or.com). > > http://www.forbes. com/global/ 2009/0112/ 076.html? > partner=yahoomag<http://www.forbes.com/global/2009/0112/076.html?partner=yahoomag> > > > ------------------------------ > Nama baru untuk Anda! > <http://sg.rd.yahoo.com/id/mail/domainchoice/mail/signature/*http://mail.promotions.yahoo.com/newdomains/id/> > Dapatkan nama yang selalu Anda inginkan di domain baru @ymail dan > @rocketmail. > Cepat sebelum diambil orang lain! >
