news n riset cc: Bakrieland: FY08 net income overpasses ours and consensus estimates (ELTY, Rp85 Buy, TP: 200)
Bakrieland posted FY08 revenues of Rp1.05tn, which came in 4% higher than our estimates but fell short of consensus by 9%. Meanwhile due to rising costs, operating income of Rp226bn, came short of ours and consensus estimates accounting for some 81% of our and consensus full year estimates. The lower than expected results at operating level was compensated by the rise in net income to Rp272bn (+102%yoy), largely boosted by a net forex gain of Rp109bn (vs 0.09bn in 08), which came 48% and 46% above ours and consensus estimates. The company has some Rp1.2bn worth of sales backlog up for realization within the next 24 months, which should keep our FY09F EPS growth forecast intact at 21% yoy based on our previous forecast. We maintain buy as the stock trades at a 83% discount to our NAV09F. --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Sanjaya" <mysanjaya...@...> wrote: > > CTRA TP Rp. 505. > > ELTY TP Rp. 125. > > SMRA TP Rp. 400. > > > > Di Amrik data properti naik diluar perkiraan, apa ini saatnya properti > Indonesia juga ikut bergerak? > > > > Salam, > > Sanjaya > > > > Eyeing mispricing opportunity > > ô Lower mortgage rates could reignite demand appetite > > There has been government pressure to lower lending rates on the ground > recently. > > Our checks suggest mortgage rates have only declined around 100bps from > > January to average 14% pa by end-February 2009. We believe only rates near 10% > > pa will lift demand close to sales levels in 2007-08. > > ô Landed residential segment sales to relatively outperform > > The property segment that benefits the most from lower mortgage rates is > landedresidential > > especially for mid-to-lower income earners. High-rise residentials earn > > lower margins than landed and are hence less attractive for developers > although > > demand in the mid-low segment can persist reasonably, in our view. We are > > negative on investment properties this year. We believe a meaningful increase > in > > rental rates is unlikely. > > ô 50% discount to our calculated RNAV is attractive > > We believe that over 50% discount to our property sector universe RNAV has > been > > an attractive entry level. However, the length and intensity of RNAV recovery > may > > vary. Our property stock universe is currently trading at average 4% discount. > > ô Top pick is SMRA on a relative basis > > We maintain our Buy ratings for Bakrieland, Ciputra Development, and > > Summarecon given discount to target RNAV at 38%, 37% and 58%, respectively. > > We maintain our Sell rating on Lippo Karawaci and Jababeka. Rolling over our > > RNAV target to year 2010 and adjusting for 2008 figures, we raise our price > > targets by 14-26%. Our RNAV-derived price targets assume 16.1-16.9% WACC > > for development properties and 13.1-13.9% single cap-rate for investment > > properties. >
