[ob] Re: FW: UBS Investment Research - Indonesia Property Sector: Eyeing mispricing opportunity

[Vic]

properti gerak lagi. bahkan asri n bksl.


--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Sanjaya" <mysanjaya...@...> wrote:
>
> CTRA TP Rp. 505.
> 
> ELTY TP Rp. 125.
> 
> SMRA TP Rp. 400.
> 
>  
> 
> Di Amrik data properti naik diluar perkiraan, apa ini saatnya properti 
> Indonesia juga ikut bergerak? 
> 
>  
> 
> Salam,
> 
> Sanjaya
> 
>  
> 
> Eyeing mispricing opportunity
> 
> 􀂄 Lower mortgage rates could reignite demand appetite
> 
> There has been government pressure to lower lending rates on the ground 
> recently.
> 
> Our checks suggest mortgage rates have only declined around 100bps from
> 
> January to average 14% pa by end-February 2009. We believe only rates near 10%
> 
> pa will lift demand close to sales levels in 2007-08.
> 
> 􀂄 Landed residential segment sales to relatively outperform
> 
> The property segment that benefits the most from lower mortgage rates is 
> landedresidential
> 
> especially for mid-to-lower income earners. High-rise residentials earn
> 
> lower margins than landed and are hence less attractive for developers 
> although
> 
> demand in the mid-low segment can persist reasonably, in our view. We are
> 
> negative on investment properties this year. We believe a meaningful increase 
> in
> 
> rental rates is unlikely.
> 
> 􀂄 50% discount to our calculated RNAV is attractive
> 
> We believe that over 50% discount to our property sector universe RNAV has 
> been
> 
> an attractive entry level. However, the length and intensity of RNAV recovery 
> may
> 
> vary. Our property stock universe is currently trading at average 4% discount.
> 
> 􀂄 Top pick is SMRA on a relative basis
> 
> We maintain our Buy ratings for Bakrieland, Ciputra Development, and
> 
> Summarecon given discount to target RNAV at 38%, 37% and 58%, respectively.
> 
> We maintain our Sell rating on Lippo Karawaci and Jababeka. Rolling over our
> 
> RNAV target to year 2010 and adjusting for 2008 figures, we raise our price
> 
> targets by 14-26%. Our RNAV-derived price targets assume 16.1-16.9% WACC
> 
> for development properties and 13.1-13.9% single cap-rate for investment
> 
> properties.
>