Elaine Sui is not available but is whispering "don't worry, my dear
friends. Investing is fun, alright.." - from Facebook
2009/5/8, James Arifin <james.ari...@gmail.com>:
> Ceritanya : Hati2 yang invest di BNBR karena targetnya nggak realis
> akhir tahun ini ke 400. Mending main saham2 lain yah mbah
>
> On 5/8/09, jsx_consultant <jsx-consult...@centrin.net.id> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Baca pdf researh Mandiri dibawah ini:
>>
>> - BUMI fair price 1815, hari ini 1960. Masih cocok dibanding yg
>> kasih cuman 500... hehehe...
>> - UNSP fair price 250, hari ini 690. Ada yg punya research
>> pembanding untuk UNSP ?.
>> - BTEL fair price 68, hari ini 107.
>> - ENRG fair price 180, hari ini 280.
>> - ELTY fair price 250, hari ini 210
>> - BNBR fair price 106 based on fair price anak perusahan,
>> fair price 129 based on market price anak perusahaan hari ini.
>>
>> Cuman ELTY dan BNBR yang belum mencapai Fair price.
>>
>> Kalo EL mau BNBR akhir tahun menjadi 400, maka saham
>> anak perusahaan harus naik = 400/129 = 3,1 kali.
>>
>> Jadi akhir tahun:
>> - BUMI harus menjadi = 3,1 x 1960 = 6076
>> - UNSP = 3,1 X 690 = 2139
>> - dst.
>>
>> Target BNBR EL sangat berat sekali kecuali minyak balik
>> diatas 100 dollar.
>>
>> Ada yg percaya minyak balik ke 100 pada akhir tahun ?.
>>
>> --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, indra affandi
>> <indras...@...> wrote:
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > For those who miss the rally
>> >
>> > BNBR’s listed
>> > subsidiaries, which contribute 84.5% to BNBR value, have experienced
>> average
>> > 142.9% stock price rally for the last 1 month while BNBR stock price
>> only
>> > increased by 66.0%. Debt restructuring amounting to Rp4.26tn relaxed
>> > solvability pressure by lengthening debt maturity date. Beside that,
>> SPIJ
>> sale,
>> > resulted in US$55.5mn additional cash, strengthened the company’s
>> cash
>> > position. The stock is undervalued with current market price putting
>> BNBR
>> as if
>> > it o nly had BUMI and ELTY, neglecting the remaining listed and
>> non-listed
>> > subsidiaries. Using SOTP method, we deem BNBR fair price of Rp129/share
>> based
>> > on market price and Rp106/share based on our estimated fair price on
>> listed
>> > subsidiaries’ values.
>> >
>> > Lower solvability risk. The company
>> > entered into debt restructuring agreement that provides some relaxation
>> after
>> > high solvability tension resulting from its Rp4.26tn obligation to
>> Northstar
>> > consortium which originally scheduled to mature this year. Basically,
>> this debt
>> > restructuring agreed on (1) lengthening debt maturity (Rp310bn on 2009,
>> and
>> > Rp3.95tn on 2012), and (2) charging interest expense (15.0%-19.0%) that
>> will be
>> > deferred and paid as a bullet payment along with principal maturity.
>> >
>> > Stronger cash position. In late April
>> > 2009, the company sold 24.5% ownership in SPIJ, steel pipe manufacture
>> > subsidiary, raising US$55.5mn cash. We view it positively because (1)
>> SPIJ has
>> > been less profitable relative to BNBR’s listed subsidiaries, and (2)
>> the
>> > proceeds ensure the company’s solvability to meet its Rp279.0bn
>> tranche
>> B
>> > debt which l matures on Sept 2009.
>> >
>> > Buy BNBR, get UNSP, BTEL,
>> > and ENRG for free! A check on BNBR value composition reveals
>> > that at the current price of Rp83/share, BNBR value is approximately
>> equal to
>> > its ownership only in BUMI and ELTY. Therefore, rather than collecting
>> all of
>> > BNBR’s subsidiaries stocks individually, it would be more profitable
>> to
>> > acquire them collectively by buying BNBR shares. Moreover, investors
>> would get
>> > not only its listed subsidiaries, but also its non-listed
>> infrastructure
>> > subsidiaries. These non-listed subsidiaries have already won several
>> > infrastructure projects which are expected to start in the next couple
>> of
>> > years, once the economy recovers.
>> >
>> > Valuation. We derived
>> > BNBR’s fair price using SOTP method. We apply a book-value multiple
>> of
>> > 1.0x to value the non-listed subsidiaries. For listed subsidiaries, we
>> use
>> > market prices and Mandiri Sekuritas’ fair price estimate separately
>> > (except for ENRG that uses consensus fair price estimate because it is
>> outside
>> > our coverage). Market price-based SOTP results in BNBR fair price of
>> > Rp129/share while fair price-based SOTP results in BNBR fair price of
>> > Rp106/share.
>> >
>> > What are the risks?Main risks in
>> > investing on BNBR stock are changes in ownership on its subsidiaries
>> and
>> > commodity price fluctuation that heavily impacted BUMI, UNSP and ENRG
>> > performance.
>> >
>> >
>> > Yohan Setio
>> > +6221
>> > 5296 9548
>> > yohan.se...@...
>> > Plaza
>> > Mandiri 28th floor
>> > Fax:
>> > +62 21 527 5711
>> > Phone:
>> > +62 21 526 3445
>> >
>> >
>> > IMPORTANT WARNING AND DISCLAIMER
>> >
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>> >
>>
>>
>>
>
>
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