Embah dulu sering posting PIG,,,BNBR skrg msh PIP (pinter), alkhir tahun bisa
jadi bener PIG hehehe
jsx_consultant wrote:
> Baca pdf researh Mandiri dibawah ini:
> - BUMI fair price 1815, hari ini 1960. Masih cocok dibanding yg
> kasih cuman 500... hehehe...
> - UNSP fair price 250, hari ini 690. Ada yg punya research
> pembanding untuk UNSP ?.
> - BTEL fair price 68, hari ini 107.
> - ENRG fair price 180, hari ini 280.
> - ELTY fair price 250, hari ini 210
> - BNBR fair price 106 based on fair price anak perusahan,
> fair price 129 based on market price anak perusahaan hari ini.
> Cuman ELTY dan BNBR yang belum mencapai Fair price.
> Kalo EL mau BNBR akhir tahun menjadi 400, maka saham
> anak perusahaan harus naik = 400/129 = 3,1 kali.
> Jadi akhir tahun:
> - BUMI harus menjadi = 3,1 x 1960 = 6076
> - UNSP = 3,1 X 690 = 2139
> - dst.
> Target BNBR EL sangat berat sekali kecuali minyak balik
> diatas 100 dollar.
> Ada yg percaya minyak balik ke 100 pada akhir tahun ?.
> --- In obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com , indra affandi <indras...@. ..>
> wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> For those who miss the rally
>>
>> BNBR’s listed
>> subsidiaries, which contribute 84.5% to BNBR value, have experienced average
>> 142.9% stock price rally for the last 1 month while BNBR stock price only
>> increased by 66.0%. Debt restructuring amounting to Rp4.26tn relaxed
>> solvability pressure by lengthening debt maturity date. Beside that, SPIJ
>> sale,
>> resulted in US$55.5mn additional cash, strengthened the company’s cash
>> position. The stock is undervalued with current market price putting BNBR as
>> if
>> it o nly had BUMI and ELTY, neglecting the remaining listed and non-listed
>> subsidiaries. Using SOTP method, we deem BNBR fair price of Rp129/share
>> based
>> on market price and Rp106/share based on our estimated fair price on listed
>> subsidiaries’ values.
>>
>> Lower solvability risk. The company
>> entered into debt restructuring agreement that provides some relaxation
>> after
>> high solvability tension resulting from its Rp4.26tn obligation to Northstar
>> consortium which originally scheduled to mature this year. Basically, this
>> debt
>> restructuring agreed on (1) lengthening debt maturity (Rp310bn on 2009, and
>> Rp3.95tn on 2012), and (2) charging interest expense (15.0%-19.0% ) that
>> will be
>> deferred and paid as a bullet payment along with principal maturity.
>>
>> Stronger cash position. In late April
>> 2009, the company sold 24.5% ownership in SPIJ, steel pipe manufacture
>> subsidiary, raising US$55.5mn cash. We view it positively because (1) SPIJ
>> has
>> been less profitable relative to BNBR’s listed subsidiaries, and (2) the
>> proceeds ensure the company’s solvability to meet its Rp279.0bn tranche B
>> debt which l matures on Sept 2009.
>>
>> Buy BNBR, get UNSP, BTEL,
>> and ENRG for free! A check on BNBR value composition reveals
>> that at the current price of Rp83/share, BNBR value is approximately equal
>> to
>> its ownership only in BUMI and ELTY. Therefore, rather than collecting all
>> of
>> BNBR’s subsidiaries stocks individually, it would be more profitable to
>> acquire them collectively by buying BNBR shares. Moreover, investors would
>> get
>> not only its listed subsidiaries, but also its non-listed infrastructure
>> subsidiaries. These non-listed subsidiaries have already won several
>> infrastructure projects which are expected to start in the next couple of
>> years, once the economy recovers.
>>
>> Valuation. We derived
>> BNBR’s fair price using SOTP method. We apply a book-value multiple of
>> 1.0x to value the non-listed subsidiaries. For listed subsidiaries, we use
>> market prices and Mandiri Sekuritas’ fair price estimate separately
>> (except for ENRG that uses consensus fair price estimate because it is
>> outside
>> our coverage). Market price-based SOTP results in BNBR fair price of
>> Rp129/share while fair price-based SOTP results in BNBR fair price of
>> Rp106/share.
>>
>> What are the risks?Main risks in
>> investing on BNBR stock are changes in ownership on its subsidiaries and
>> commodity price fluctuation that heavily impacted BUMI, UNSP and ENRG
>> performance.
>>
>>
>> Yohan Setio
>> +6221
>> 5296 9548
>> yohan.setio@ ...
>> Plaza
>> Mandiri 28th floor
>> Fax:
>> +62 21 527 5711
>> Phone:
>> +62 21 526 3445
>>
>>
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>>
>
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