Iya soalnya BDnya ganti, jadi si E** mau buang sisa barang dia. Dalam 2 bln terakhir aja udah di nett sell 1 jt lot, buat barang ngak liquid kayak gini lumayan banyak tuh.
-----Original Message----- From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Pamudji Rahardjo Sent: Monday, June 15, 2009 4:20 PM To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [ob] asri dari DANAREKSA TP RP 210 Waduuuu....I denger dari temen, MU msh mau cuci gudang. Liat aja klo dia udah buang2 barang...perasaan kaga pake liat BID lg. Maen kasih aja..... :D --- On Mon, 6/15/09, swan silo <swan_gro...@yahoo.com> wrote: From: swan silo <swan_gro...@yahoo.com> Subject: [ob] asri dari DANAREKSA TP RP 210 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, my_...@yahoogroups.com, sa...@yahoogroups.com Date: Monday, June 15, 2009, 1:55 PM From: Danareksa Equity Research Sent: Monday, June 15, 2009 11:31 AM Subject: Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI IJ, Rp127 BUY) Unlocking value Alam Sutera Realty Unlocking value TP raised to Rp210 Our new TP is at a 30% discount to the NAV, reflecting poor share liquidity and potentially limited landbank. Our TP implies 2.0-1.8x PBV. In calculating the NAV, we make a number of assumptions. Firstly, the economic outlook is seen to be brighter as interest rates have now declined to an all time low. Secondly, the company's property values are almost certain to rise as direct toll road access becomes a reality. And thirdly, a Rp1.6trn project is expected to make the company net cash by 2011. Note that our NAV-derived TP does not include other projects in the pipeline - such as the Binus apartments - but if it did then our TP would increase a further 2%. Earnings wise, we have lowered our FY09-10E EPS estimates by 36-14% to account for delays. Even so, the outlook for profits looks rosy since margins should expand from a greater focus on the selling of high yielding assets. With 57% upside potential from the current share price we believe the stock offers an interesting play in Indonesia 's burgeoning property sector. M&A could come next, we believe. BUY recommendation maintained. Unlocking value The sale of some 100 ha of land ( gross area, already developed and worth around Rp1.6trn) will keep ASRI cash rich, in our view. According to the management it will take around 3 years to sell the land. Interestingly, the land is valued at only Rp2.7mn/sqm, or a chunky 10% discount to its adjacent development, BSD. In our estimate, we believe the project should be worth around Rp2.8trn. This reflects: 1) the soon-to-be-given direct toll road access to the complex (which should give a boost to land values), 2) the fact that the company can sell its assets at its own convenience and with a focus on realizing the maximum potential asset value and 3) the expectation that the price discount will narrow. As a result of the land sales, margins will be given a big boost. This is because sales of land typically yield a margin of around 50% - or much higher than the 25% margin for residential property sales. Note also that the land was acquired at a very low price of only around Rp150,000/m2. Besides being used to develop its existing landbank, the cash received from the land sales will be used to pay down the company's Rp733bn debt by 2011. By then we expect ASRI to have net cash of Rp1.3 trn. M&A could be next to come, we believe. A town of its own: groundbreaking in Aug 09 The development of its own town shall give an additional spur to demand. This will include a mall and offices that will cover some 8.4ha of land and add an expected Rp68bn to yearly recurring income. We don't expect delays as funding has already been secured from the IPO. Ground breaking is scheduled for Aug 09, with completion expected to take around 2 years. A hotel and university will be built to complete the complex. There are also plans for a theme park, but that is still some way off - at least 5-6 years before realization. To develop the whole town within 2 years we estimate it will take around Rp550bn. Financing shall not be a problem, however, and will come internally (we do not assume any additional debts to be taken on over the next 3 years). Of the total 14,000sqm of office area, some 50% is expected to be sold as strata title, generating around Rp65bn over 3 years. The second quarter is looking good In the year up to April 09, marketing sales reached Rp154bn, of which 58% were sales of commercial shop lots and kiosks - a significant achievement since their launch in March 09, in our view. Following this success, ASRI has undertaken a further launch to accommodate the higher expected demand in April and May 09. In terms of profitability, we expect higher gross margins of 28% in 2Q09 vs. 24% in 2Q08. For the full year, we expect marketing sales to reach Rp850bn, around 40% of which will be booked as revenues. This amount added to the contribution coming from last year's marketing sales should translate into Rp613bn of revenues for 2009. Lydia Suwandi (62-21) 350 9888 ext. 3508 lyd...@danareksa. com _____ Pamer gaya dengan skin baru yang keren. Coba Yahoo! Messenger 9.0 baru sekarang! <http://sg.rd.yahoo.com/id/messenger/maxwell/*http://id.messenger.yahoo. com/>
