hahaha... sudah berapa juta lots tuh :p, masih sisa berapa Pak? Kasih tau ya kalo sudah habis. Mau ikut ASRI ke 230 :D
Kamis sudah boleh naik belum? On Mon, Jun 15, 2009 at 5:19 PM, Pamudji Rahardjo <odj...@yahoo.com> wrote: > > > Waduuuu....I denger dari temen, MU msh mau cuci gudang. Liat aja klo dia > udah buang2 barang...perasaan kaga pake liat BID lg. Maen kasih aja..... :D > > --- On *Mon, 6/15/09, swan silo <swan_gro...@yahoo.com>* wrote: > > > From: swan silo <swan_gro...@yahoo.com> > Subject: [ob] asri dari DANAREKSA TP RP 210 > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, my_...@yahoogroups.com, > sa...@yahoogroups.com > Date: Monday, June 15, 2009, 1:55 PM > > *From:* Danareksa Equity Research > *Sent:* Monday, June 15, 2009 11:31 AM > *Subject:* Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI IJ, Rp127 BUY) Unlocking value > > > > *Alam Sutera Realty* > > > > Unlocking value > > > > *TP raised to Rp210* > > Our new TP is at a 30% discount to the NAV, reflecting poor share liquidity > and potentially limited landbank. Our TP implies 2.0-1.8x PBV. In > calculating the NAV, we make a number of assumptions. Firstly, the economic > outlook is seen to be brighter as interest rates have now declined to an all > time low. Secondly, the company’s property values are almost certain to rise > as direct toll road access becomes a reality. And thirdly, a Rp1.6trn > project is expected to make the company net cash by 2011. Note that our > NAV-derived TP does not include other projects in the pipeline - such as the > *Binus* apartments - but if it did then our TP would increase a further > 2%. Earnings wise, we have lowered our FY09-10E EPS estimates by 36-14% to > account for delays. Even so, the outlook for profits looks rosy since > margins should expand from a greater focus on the selling of high yielding > assets. With 57% upside potential from the current share price we believe > the stock offers an interesting play in Indonesia ’s burgeoning property > sector. M&A could come next, we believe. BUY recommendation maintained. > > > > *Unlocking value* > > The sale of some 100 ha of land ( gross area, already developed and worth > around Rp1.6trn) will keep ASRI cash rich, in our view. According to the > management it will take around 3 years to sell the land. Interestingly, the > land is valued at only Rp2.7mn/sqm, or a chunky 10% discount to its adjacent > development, BSD. In our estimate, we believe the project should be worth > around Rp2.8trn. This reflects: 1) the soon-to-be-given direct toll road > access to the complex (which should give a boost to land values), 2) the > fact that the company can sell its assets at its own convenience and with a > focus on realizing the maximum potential asset value and 3) the expectation > that the price discount will narrow. As a result of the land sales, margins > will be given a big boost. This is because sales of land typically yield a > margin of around 50% - or much higher than the 25% margin for residential > property sales. Note also that the land was acquired at a very low price of > only around Rp150,000/m2. Besides being used to develop its existing > landbank, the cash received from the land sales will be used to pay down the > company’s Rp733bn debt by 2011. By then we expect ASRI to have net cash of > Rp1.3 trn. M&A could be next to come, we believe. > > > > *A town of its own: groundbreaking in Aug 09 * > > The development of its own town shall give an additional spur to demand. > This will include a mall and offices that will cover some 8.4ha of land and > add an expected Rp68bn to yearly recurring income. We don’t expect delays as > funding has already been secured from the IPO. Ground breaking is scheduled > for Aug 09, with completion expected to take around 2 years. A hotel and > university will be built to complete the complex. There are also plans for a > theme park, but that is still some way off – at least 5-6 years before > realization. To develop the whole town within 2 years we estimate it will > take around Rp550bn. Financing shall not be a problem, however, and will > come internally (we do not assume any additional debts to be taken on over > the next 3 years). Of the total 14,000sqm of office area, some 50% is > expected to be sold as strata title, generating around Rp65bn over 3 years. > > > > *The second quarter is looking good* > > In the year up to April 09, marketing sales reached Rp154bn, of which 58% > were sales of commercial shop lots and kiosks - a significant achievement > since their launch in March 09, in our view. Following this success, ASRI > has undertaken a further launch to accommodate the higher expected demand in > April and May 09. In terms of profitability, we expect higher gross margins > of 28% in 2Q09 vs. 24% in 2Q08. For the full year, we expect marketing sales > to reach Rp850bn, around 40% of which will be booked as revenues. This > amount added to the contribution coming from last year’s marketing sales > should translate into Rp613bn of revenues for 2009. > > > > *Lydia Suwandi*** > > (62-21) 350 9888 ext. 3508 > > lyd...@danareksa. com > > > ------------------------------ > Pamer gaya dengan skin baru yang keren. > Coba Yahoo! Messenger 9.0 baru sekarang! > <http://sg.rd.yahoo.com/id/messenger/maxwell/*http://id.messenger.yahoo.com/> > > > >
