Upgrade kan rekomendasi analistnya, and itu kan buat long term.. kadang clientnya tidak langsung buy tp watch dulu
On 6/16/09, Ferry <ferry.wachj...@gmail.com> wrote: > Danareksa meng-upgrade ke 3500, tapi gak pernah lihat OD beli tuch! > > > > From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] > On Behalf Of Joe Grunk > Sent: Monday, June 15, 2009 2:28 PM > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com; sa...@yahoogroups.com > Subject: [ob] Fw: HEXA (TP Rp3,500) - Danareksa: A Valued Player > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Hexindo Adiperkasa > > > > A Valued Player > > > > BUY, TP raised to Rp3,500 > > We increase our TP to Rp3,500 for the following reasons: 1) 50%-20% higher > 09-10F net profit forecasts on the back of higher equipment sales, 2) a > lower WACC of 13-14% stemming from greater confidence in the company’s > business model, and 3) a lower share liquidity discount of 20% since trading > liquidity has improved. Our new TP implies PE09-10F of 9.6-9.2x. We > believe our valuation is justified since HEXA has a higher 3-year CAGR net > profit growth (10%) than UNTR (5%). As a result, HEXA currently trades at a > PEG 09-10F of 0.7-0.6x, or lower than UNTR’s 2.6-2.4x. > > > > 1Q09 earnings exceed expectations > > HEXA’s 1Q09 earnings reached Rp62bn, beating our expectations by 5%. This > owes more to higher prices than higher volumes, we believe. Indeed, the 1Q09 > equipment revenues of Rp302bn are already 30% of our full year forecast > despite the 67% yoy decline in equipment volume sales. Lifting revenues > higher was a 15% yoy increase in average selling prices (ASP) as the > proportion of large equipment sales increased. This offset the impact of > using a lower pegged exchange rate to boost inventory sales. > > > > Greater confidence in our equipment sales target > > To achieve a better forecast, we tweak our model by separating the regular > sales from the “mega deals”. In regard to the regular sales, we expect a > decline in regular sales volume this year since demand from the agri sector > is still sluggish. Overall sales in the year up to April 09 are only 235 > units, or down 70% yoy. Nonetheless, we remain confident that our ex-mega > deals full year target of 867 units is achievable since the company has > already closed a deal with its biggest forestry client, Sinar Mas, for 200 > units this year, and because a revival in agri demand is expected by the end > of the year as stabilizing CPO prices should encourage planters to expand. > > > > Focusing more on value than volume > > HEXA currently has three main projects worth a total of US$170mn with KPC, > Thiess, and Newmont. We expect most of the equipment to be delivered this > year as good progress has already been made (note that some of the Newmont > order has already been fulfilled; half of KPC’s order is said to be making > its way to Indonesia to be assembled; and a deal has already been signed > with Thiess). Proceeds from these deals shall start to be booked in 2Q09 > onward. As a result of combining the sales from the mega deals with the > company’s regular sales, we raise our 09-10F net income estimates by 50-20% > to Rp308-319bn. > > > > Felicia Barus > > (62-21) 351 0749 > > feli...@danareksa.com > > > > > > _____ > > Lebih > <http://sg.rd.yahoo.com/id/messenger/trueswitch/mailtagline/*http:/id.messenger.yahoo.com/invite/> > bergaul dan terhubung dengan lebih baik. > Tambah lebih banyak teman ke Yahoo! Messenger sekarang! > > > > -- Sent from my mobile device ------------------------------------ + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: mailto:obrolan-bandar-dig...@yahoogroups.com mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: obrolan-bandar-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
