Untuk hari ini OD ada beli pak...cuma yang banyak DP sama YU. Index nyungsep HEXA tetap Seeep ...
--- On Tue, 6/16/09, Daily_Trader <efendy.r...@gmail.com> wrote: > From: Daily_Trader <efendy.r...@gmail.com> > Subject: Re: [ob] Fw: HEXA (TP Rp3,500) - Danareksa: A Valued Player > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Date: Tuesday, June 16, 2009, 1:14 AM > Upgrade kan rekomendasi analistnya, > and itu kan buat long term.. > kadang clientnya tidak langsung buy tp watch dulu > > On 6/16/09, Ferry <ferry.wachj...@gmail.com> > wrote: > > Danareksa meng-upgrade ke 3500, tapi gak pernah lihat > OD beli tuch! > > > > > > > > From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > [mailto:obrolan-ban...@yahoogroups.com] > > On Behalf Of Joe Grunk > > Sent: Monday, June 15, 2009 2:28 PM > > To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com; > sa...@yahoogroups.com > > Subject: [ob] Fw: HEXA (TP Rp3,500) - Danareksa: A > Valued Player > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Hexindo Adiperkasa > > > > > > > > A Valued Player > > > > > > > > BUY, TP raised to Rp3,500 > > > > We increase our TP to Rp3,500 for the following > reasons: 1) 50%-20% higher > > 09-10F net profit forecasts on the back of higher > equipment sales, 2) a > > lower WACC of 13-14% stemming from greater confidence > in the company’s > > business model, and 3) a lower share liquidity > discount of 20% since trading > > liquidity has improved. Our new TP implies > PE09-10F of 9.6-9.2x. We > > believe our valuation is justified since HEXA has a > higher 3-year CAGR net > > profit growth (10%) than UNTR (5%). As a result, > HEXA currently trades at a > > PEG 09-10F of 0.7-0.6x, or lower than UNTR’s > 2.6-2.4x. > > > > > > > > 1Q09 earnings exceed expectations > > > > HEXA’s 1Q09 earnings reached Rp62bn, beating our > expectations by 5%. This > > owes more to higher prices than higher volumes, we > believe. Indeed, the 1Q09 > > equipment revenues of Rp302bn are already 30% of our > full year forecast > > despite the 67% yoy decline in equipment volume > sales. Lifting revenues > > higher was a 15% yoy increase in average selling > prices (ASP) as the > > proportion of large equipment sales increased. This > offset the impact of > > using a lower pegged exchange rate to boost inventory > sales. > > > > > > > > Greater confidence in our equipment sales target > > > > To achieve a better forecast, we tweak our model by > separating the regular > > sales from the “mega deals”. In regard to the > regular sales, we expect a > > decline in regular sales volume this year since demand > from the agri sector > > is still sluggish. Overall sales in the year up > to April 09 are only 235 > > units, or down 70% yoy. Nonetheless, we remain > confident that our ex-mega > > deals full year target of 867 units is achievable > since the company has > > already closed a deal with its biggest forestry > client, Sinar Mas, for 200 > > units this year, and because a revival in agri demand > is expected by the end > > of the year as stabilizing CPO prices should encourage > planters to expand. > > > > > > > > Focusing more on value than volume > > > > HEXA currently has three main projects worth a total > of US$170mn with KPC, > > Thiess, and Newmont. We expect most of the equipment > to be delivered this > > year as good progress has already been made (note that > some of the Newmont > > order has already been fulfilled; half of KPC’s > order is said to be making > > its way to Indonesia to be assembled; and a deal has > already been signed > > with Thiess). Proceeds from these deals shall > start to be booked in 2Q09 > > onward. As a result of combining the sales from > the mega deals with the > > company’s regular sales, we raise our 09-10F net > income estimates by 50-20% > > to Rp308-319bn. > > > > > > > > Felicia Barus > > > > (62-21) 351 0749 > > > > feli...@danareksa.com > > > > > > > > > > > > _____ > > > > Lebih > > <http://sg.rd.yahoo.com/id/messenger/trueswitch/mailtagline/*http:/id.messenger.yahoo.com/invite/> > > bergaul dan terhubung dengan lebih baik. > > Tambah lebih banyak teman ke Yahoo! Messenger > sekarang! > > > > > > > > > > -- > Sent from my mobile device > > > ------------------------------------ > > + + > + + + + + > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > + + + + + > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > mailto:obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com > > >
