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Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT -----Original Message----- From: Elaine Sui <elainesu...@gmail.com> Date: Sun, 26 Jul 2009 10:38:52 To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com> Subject: Re: [ob] Correction Scenarios... SOFT landing or HARD? *I see more posts in OB now are bears. Some tech guys are pretending to be calm both in OB and on my facebook wall, worrying that they may lose their clients if they turn bearish too. Ok, no problem, you say what you wanna say lah [?], but here's my comments: 1. UNEMPLOYMENT & 2. DEFLATION PROBLEM I don't quite agree with 'bull market in US', it's just a bear rally. Next week, the US 10yrs t-notes market will have to 'eat' the record $115+ billion bond auction that will -obviously- put heavy pressure on the greenback. Last year, with the same of today's USD 'value', the oil price skyrocketed to $140/barrel. Today's it's 'only' $60-$70/barrel. (The Fed is selling American assets (to China). Did you know that Hummer car license were sold to Sichuan Tengzhong? Did you know that all transformers autobots are all GM cars? Have you wonder why the scene starts in Shanghai?) Last April, I quoted Mr Mohammad this: * *"In the old days you needed to conquer a country with military force, and then you could control that country. Today it's not necessary at all. You can destabilize a country, make it poor, and then make it request help. And [in exchange] for the help that is given, you gain control over the policies of the country, and when you gain control over the policies of a country, effectively you have colonized that country." - DR. MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMMAD (July 2nd, 2001) * *The US is crying for China help. Can we say China now has MORE control of the US policies? Yes.* * Okay, back to USD vs Oil price, this tells us that the fall of the USD is BIGGER than the rise of oil price, which means deflation (for non US), combined with high unemployment rate, then we may see a rather fucked up economy. **Do you know why the int. rates keep lower and lower? This is the monetary policy to endorse inflation (aka fight deflation), because those big guys in the central banks know that the deflationary spiral is DEADLY. Last year, normally the Fed should raise int. rate because of the inflation, but since they are facing credit crunch -thanks to the subprime mortgage-, they have to lower it. But I understand that we're talking about STOCK market, I know the market can be controlled for short term, but it will NOT move against the fundamental, and fundamentally things are not something we're happy about. What is deflationary death spiral? well, the Fed cannot do anything with the interest rate as it's on all time low. All they can do is to issue new debts, which will cause yield to skyrocket. In other hand, factories are shutting down, or cutting their workforce. This lead to lower tax, health care and insurance paid. (but don't worry too much, this is only a theory, only happened once in 1930's) If ppl have no income, they can't buy things. If ppl can't buy things, factories will stop buying raw materials and cut more employees. If they stop making products, then they can't pay their debts to the banks, which then the banks fail to pay to the Fed. The Fed may fail to pay the treasury int. to foreign investors. * * **NOTE THAT THE ABOVE COMMENT IS FOR US ECONOMY. IN OTHER HAND, THE ASIAN TIGERS (CHINA, INDIA, AND INDONESIA) ECONOMY WILL BE LESS AFFECTED WITH THIS PROBLEM (BUT THEIR STOCK MARKETS MAY GOT SEVERELY HIT) AS THESE COUNTRIES RELY HEAVILY ON DOMESTIC/REGIONAL MARKET. THE REAL PROBLEM MAY RISE IF -AND ONLY IF- THE US STARTS TO DEFAULT THEIR DEBTS (UNABLE TO PAY THE INTEREST), COMBINED WITH RATING DOWNGRADES FOR USD THEN WE WILL HAVE WORLD WAR III. (This is not a right thing to say, but you must know that WAR creates DEMAND. Not just conventional war, but also symbolic ones like war against 'terrorism', 'illicit drugs', 'child porn', 'piracy', 'deforestation', etc etc) ** * *Luckily tech traders like JT and Tasrul only have to calculate the past historical data (or predict couple days after), while I have to calculate the possible scenarios for the next two quarters at least. :(( * ** * * *3. NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR CRISIS* *If the US economy is in danger, many of their enemy, namely Iran and North Korea, may see this as a chance to destroy their common enemy. One single incident can lead to a lot of destruction. May be triggered with the above issues, when the US is 'off guard'. But I believe this has low chance to happen, unless, US default their debts, China gets angry, and tells his little brother Kim to sneak in. (Perhaps I read too much Tom Clancy's book hee [?] ) * * * *4. UNFAVORED ELECTION RESULT* *Too sensitive to discuss. Pass. I don't know anything. * * * *5. H1N1 SWINE FLU OUTBREAK* *Thailand economy already got hit with this pandemy, and potentially millions can die because of this worldwide. Do not underestimate this issue, live a healthy life today! * * These are my opinions. May or may not happen, God help us all. Don't worry and don't get overreacted like the last time, ada Artomoro bisa kasih so much additional gain, to me and to all of us. [?] Elaine only bisa main saja di OB until end of this month, after that you may want to put your hope on Artomoro, -- that little Schubert ha ha. [?]. Who knows? perhaps he's Santa Claus in disguise, and can bring IDX to 2800 this year? But you have to know that they have a LOT of BAD NEWS to be exposed: Deflation, Unemployment, Treasury Auction, Swine Flu, Election, El Nino, Terrorism, default contracts, North Korea, China 'hoax growth', Goldman's artificial high speed trading exposed (I told you about this last year and I got flamed), etc etc will be in your daily newspaper headline. I made two categories for source neutrality: Neutral: World Bank, govt press releases, Reuters, AFP, SEC report Not so neutral: CNBNC, Bloomberg, Fox News highly provocative: Obrolan Bandar See the difference? [?] Hmm, I think I write too much here and I know you wouldn't listen to me anyway,.. [?] you never do. * Elaine * * 2009/7/24 boyz <m457...@yahoo.com.sg> > > > Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in > here. > This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic > debate. > > *Background: > * > > - IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi 2185.*Technically > speaking*, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% *Fibonacci > Retracement* (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka 61,8% > FR IHSG = 2170,31). > - Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave 5. > > > > *Arguments:* > > Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih besar > probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. > Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada > potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-*discount current price*. > > Tapi melihat baru dimulainya *Bull Rally* di bursa Amerika dan Eropa (DJI > memasuki wave 3),* jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan market > psychology*, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut dalam *euphoria > *market regional. > > > * > So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? > Soft Landing or Hard Landing?* > > Please share your opinion. > (*you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, macro > economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and 2nd line of > this post*). > > > Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. > Salam, > > > > > > >
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