Okay thank you mam 2009/7/26 Elaine Sui <elainesu...@gmail.com>
> > > *Dividend analysis. Dividend should be capped at the minimum of the > risk-free rate (bank deposit), which is around 5% to 6%. There is no point > for investors to invest in a stock that gives lower return than a saving > rate. I assume (considering the bad condition in the world biggest market, > the US) dividends will be severely affected in the 2H09. > > For example: > Bumi is now at 2000. Even they're the biggest coal exporters in Indonesia, > with the dividend of 50 then it returns 2.5% (50 div 2000). Let's say the > coal price and the export volume are constant, then we better put the money > on goverment bonds or other triple AAA corp bonds which will give return > much above 10%. But in reality, of course there are bandars who often > manipulate the prices. > > For BUMI, 1000-1200 is a good start for investment. > > For IDX, -1000 is rough figure for 50% discount of the overall market > (worst case) but I suppose at 1400 level, ppl will start buying again, but I > dunno, let's see how far it will stretch. > > > Elaine* > * > * > On Sun, Jul 26, 2009 at 3:17 PM, vividtrader <vividtra...@gmail.com>wrote: > >> >> >> Elaine, aku lg belajar intermarket. 2 hari lalu setelah NYSE tutup sore >> hari EURUSD drop secara tiba2 tanpa alasan yg jelas padahal DJI jg baik2 >> saja. Sepertinya big money sudah siap2. Deflasi dan Pengangguran jadi >> problem memang iya. Secara analisa teknikal biasa pun keliatan kalau >> pengangguran di US ada resisten di 11%. Bahkan di michigan sudah 15%. Aku >> setuju dengan bearish skenariomu. Yang jadi pertanyaan. Bearish 1000 poin >> angkanya dapat dari mana? Mengapa tidak 500 poin, 1500 poin, etc. >> Michigan unemployment tops >> 15%<http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/17/news/economy/state_unemployment_report/index.htm> >> >> Thank You >> >> >> >> 2009/7/26 Elaine Sui <elainesu...@gmail.com> >> >> >>> >>> *I see more posts in OB now are bears. Some tech guys are pretending to >>> be calm both in OB and on my facebook wall, worrying that they may lose >>> their clients if they turn bearish too. Ok, no problem, you say what you >>> wanna say lah [?], but here's my comments: >>> >>> 1. UNEMPLOYMENT & 2. DEFLATION PROBLEM >>> I don't quite agree with 'bull market in US', it's just a bear rally. >>> Next week, the US 10yrs t-notes market will have to 'eat' the record $115+ >>> billion bond auction that will -obviously- put heavy pressure on the >>> greenback. Last year, with the same of today's USD 'value', the oil price >>> skyrocketed to $140/barrel. Today's it's 'only' $60-$70/barrel. >>> >>> (The Fed is selling American assets (to China). Did you know that Hummer >>> car license were sold to Sichuan Tengzhong? Did you know that all >>> transformers autobots are all GM cars? Have you wonder why the scene starts >>> in Shanghai?) >>> >>> Last April, I quoted Mr Mohammad this: >>> * >>> *"In the old days you needed to conquer a country with military force, >>> and then you could control that country. Today it's not necessary at all. >>> You can destabilize a country, make it poor, and then make it request help. >>> And [in exchange] for the help that is given, you gain control over the >>> policies of the country, and when you gain control over the policies of a >>> country, effectively you have colonized that country." - DR. MAHATHIR BIN >>> MOHAMMAD >>> (July 2nd, 2001) >>> * >>> >>> *The US is crying for China help. Can we say China now has MORE control >>> of the US policies? Yes.* >>> * >>> Okay, back to USD vs Oil price, this tells us that the fall of the USD is >>> BIGGER than the rise of oil price, which means deflation (for non US), >>> combined with high unemployment rate, then we may see a rather fucked up >>> economy. >>> >>> **Do you know why the int. rates keep lower and lower? This is the >>> monetary policy to endorse inflation (aka fight deflation), because those >>> big guys in the central banks know that the deflationary spiral is DEADLY. >>> >>> Last year, normally the Fed should raise int. rate because of the >>> inflation, but since they are facing credit crunch -thanks to the subprime >>> mortgage-, they have to lower it. >>> >>> But I understand that we're talking about STOCK market, I know the market >>> can be controlled for short term, but it will NOT move against the >>> fundamental, and fundamentally things are not something we're happy about. >>> >>> What is deflationary death spiral? well, the Fed cannot do anything with >>> the interest rate as it's on all time low. All they can do is to issue new >>> debts, which will cause yield to skyrocket. In other hand, factories are >>> shutting down, or cutting their workforce. >>> >>> This lead to lower tax, health care and insurance paid. (but don't worry >>> too much, this is only a theory, only happened once in 1930's) >>> >>> If ppl have no income, they can't buy things. If ppl can't buy things, >>> factories will stop buying raw materials and cut more employees. If they >>> stop making products, then they can't pay their debts to the banks, which >>> then the banks fail to pay to the Fed. The Fed may fail to pay the treasury >>> int. to foreign investors. >>> * * >>> **NOTE THAT THE ABOVE COMMENT IS FOR US ECONOMY. IN OTHER HAND, THE >>> ASIAN TIGERS (CHINA, INDIA, AND INDONESIA) ECONOMY WILL BE LESS AFFECTED >>> WITH THIS PROBLEM (BUT THEIR STOCK MARKETS MAY GOT SEVERELY HIT) AS THESE >>> COUNTRIES RELY HEAVILY ON DOMESTIC/REGIONAL MARKET. >>> >>> THE REAL PROBLEM MAY RISE IF -AND ONLY IF- THE US STARTS TO DEFAULT THEIR >>> DEBTS (UNABLE TO PAY THE INTEREST), COMBINED WITH RATING DOWNGRADES FOR USD >>> THEN WE WILL HAVE WORLD WAR III. (This is not a right thing to say, but you >>> must know that WAR creates DEMAND. Not just conventional war, but also >>> symbolic ones like war against 'terrorism', 'illicit drugs', 'child porn', >>> 'piracy', 'deforestation', etc etc) >>> ** >>> * >>> *Luckily tech traders like JT and Tasrul only have to calculate the past >>> historical data (or predict couple days after), while I have to calculate >>> the possible scenarios for the next two quarters at least. :(( * >>> ** >>> * >>> * >>> *3. NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR CRISIS* >>> *If the US economy is in danger, many of their enemy, namely Iran and >>> North Korea, may see this as a chance to destroy their common enemy. One >>> single incident can lead to a lot of destruction. May be triggered with the >>> above issues, when the US is 'off guard'. But I believe this has low chance >>> to happen, unless, US default their debts, China gets angry, and tells his >>> little brother Kim to sneak in. (Perhaps I read too much Tom Clancy's book >>> hee [?] ) >>> * >>> * >>> * >>> *4. UNFAVORED ELECTION RESULT* >>> *Too sensitive to discuss. Pass. I don't know anything. >>> * >>> * >>> * >>> *5. H1N1 SWINE FLU OUTBREAK* >>> *Thailand economy already got hit with this pandemy, and potentially >>> millions can die because of this worldwide. Do not underestimate this issue, >>> live a healthy life today! >>> * >>> * >>> These are my opinions. May or may not happen, God help us all. Don't >>> worry and don't get overreacted like the last time, ada Artomoro bisa kasih >>> so much additional gain, to me and to all of us. [?] Elaine only bisa >>> main saja di OB until end of this month, after that you may want to put your >>> hope on Artomoro, -- that little Schubert ha ha. [?]. >>> >>> Who knows? perhaps he's Santa Claus in disguise, and can bring IDX to >>> 2800 this year? But you have to know that they have a LOT of BAD NEWS to be >>> exposed: Deflation, Unemployment, Treasury Auction, Swine Flu, Election, El >>> Nino, Terrorism, default contracts, North Korea, China 'hoax growth', >>> Goldman's artificial high speed trading exposed (I told you about this last >>> year and I got flamed), etc etc will be in your daily newspaper headline. >>> >>> I made two categories for source neutrality: >>> Neutral: World Bank, govt press releases, Reuters, AFP, SEC report >>> Not so neutral: CNBNC, Bloomberg, Fox News >>> highly provocative: Obrolan Bandar >>> >>> See the difference? [?] Hmm, I think I write too much here and I know you >>> wouldn't listen to me anyway,.. [?] you never do. >>> >>> * >>> Elaine >>> * >>> * >>> >>> 2009/7/24 boyz <m457...@yahoo.com.sg> >>> >>> >>>> >>>> Just to bridge an open, analytic, thoughtful and friendly discussion in >>>> here. >>>> This is not intended to provoke, impose an opinion, or to be chaotic >>>> debate. >>>> >>>> *Background: >>>> * >>>> >>>> - IHSG sudah beberapa bulan ini rebound sampai ke posisi >>>> 2185.*Technically >>>> speaking*, posisi IHSG saat ini sudah sampai pada 61,8% *Fibonacci >>>> Retracement* (Posisi tertinggi 2838 - posisi terendah 1089 maka >>>> 61,8% FR IHSG = 2170,31). >>>> - Secara Elliot Wave counting, sekarang ini IHSG berada dalam Wave >>>> 5. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> *Arguments:* >>>> >>>> Walau masih ada potensi kenaikan, untuk jangka pendek-menengah lebih >>>> besar probabilitas IHSG untuk terkoreksi. >>>> Dan dalam konteks fundamental maupun makro ekonomi masih ada >>>> potensi-potensi yang bisa menyebabkan market men-*discount current >>>> price*. >>>> >>>> Tapi melihat baru dimulainya *Bull Rally* di bursa Amerika dan Eropa >>>> (DJI memasuki wave 3),* jika mengacu pada intermarket analysis dan >>>> market psychology*, sepertinya irrelevant jika IHSG tidak ikut larut >>>> dalam *euphoria *market regional. >>>> >>>> >>>> * >>>> So, which scenario of correction for IHSG may occur? >>>> Soft Landing or Hard Landing?* >>>> >>>> Please share your opinion. >>>> (*you can include or add technical, fundamental, bandarmology, news, >>>> macro economy, or any approach as long as still referring to 1st and >>>> 2nd line of this post*). >>>> >>>> >>>> Thanks for your contribution and have nice weekend. >>>> Salam, >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>> >>> >>> >> >> >> > > > >
<<35E.gif>>
<<510.gif>>
<<330.gif>>
<<320.gif>>
<<360.gif>>
