Despite I'm not an economist, I'd simply answer the following from common sense
point of view:
1. I'll take the same strategy as you did because I'm sure the return from IDR
Bonds is still higher than US Bonds, and on top of that I believe that IDR will
strengthen over USD. I'll also put some fund in Gold as to protect it from
inflation.
2. I believe Indonesia Govt will put best effort to ensure and maintain the
surplus trade position and also put another best effort to apply Good Corporate
Governance so that the use of govt budget will be effective and efficient, and
eventually it will have the impact on the strengthening of IDR currency. In the
case of the IDR weakening, it's just a temporary situation.
3. As Indonesia has a comparative advantage in natural resources and consumer
spending power, I think commodities especially Coal and plantation, and
consumer + cement sector stocks are still the best to pick (the challenge is
some stocks have been too expensive now).....for point 3, I guess Embah and You
know much better.
Last but not least, ALL of OB members Love You Full.
Hehehe..........
Sent from my XL BlackBerry®.
[Total confidence arises when total truth (wisdom) and total goodness
(compassion) are on our side.]
-----Original Message-----
From: Elaine Sui <elainesu...@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 17 Sep 2009 22:54:08
To: <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: [ob] [Night discussion] bonds, currency, and stock
*Dear all, would you like to share with me?
**#1 About bonds:..
I took big bets on IDR bonds in the past months. If you were on my position
where your main task is to PROTECT (instead of GROW) your assets, will you
take the same strategy? If so, why? I know most of you are stock traders,
but please share your opinion, at least from your point of view of the
monetary condition.
#2 About currency:...
ID govt must be very careful with intervention to the currency as we all
know that since they signed up with ACFTA, Indonesia's trade surplus have
been shrinking vs China (it means your import from China is much bigger than
your export). If this continues, you may get trade deficits, and deficits
may weaken your currency. (and may in return force me to sell bonds)*
#3 About stock:...
India has just having INFLATION on soft commodity sector (food), its ripple
effect may pick up the palm oil demand. (Please elaborate from
fundamental/technical pov). I think it should bring positive sentiment to
the plantation sector (palm oil, corn, soybean)
Embah, what do you think?
Elaine*
** No choice. It depends on your govt action.*
